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Scenario A2-550 in Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate/ ©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2-550 in Year 2050 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate/

©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Figure 20.5. Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2050 with and without mitigation along an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of 5.5°C. (a) portrays vulnerability with a static representation of current adaptive capacity (b) shows vulnerability with enhanced adaptive capacity worldwide, (c) displays the geographical implications of mitigation designed to cap effective atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at 550 ppm. (d) offers a portrait of the combined complementary effects of mitigation to the same 550 ppm concentration limit and enhanced adaptive capacity Source: Yohe et ai, 2006b.

Scenario A2 in Year 2100 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration

Scenario A2 in Year 2100 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

(cl) Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2 in Year 2100 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/datayclimate/ ©2006 Wesleyari University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change ( D J Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2 in Year 2100 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/climate/ ©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Scenario A2-550 in Year 2100 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration http ://ciesin. col umbia .ed u/data/cli mate/

Global Distribution of Vulnerability to Climate Change

Combined National Indices of Exposure and Sensitivity

Arid Climatic Zone The World

Scenario A2-550 in Year 2100 with Climate Sensitivity Equal to 5.5 Degrees C Annual Mean Temperature with Aggregate Impacts Calibration and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

http://clesin.columbia.edu/data/climate/

©2006 Wesleyan University and Columbia University

Figure 20.6. Geographical distribution of vulnerability in 2100 with and without mitigation along an SRES A2 emissions scenario with a climate sensitivity of 5.5°C. (a) portrays vulnerability with a static representation of current adaptive capacity (b) shows vulnerability with enhanced adaptive capacity worldwide, (c) displays the geographical implications of mitigation designed to cap effective atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at 550 ppm. (d) offers a portrait of the combined complementary effects of mitigation to the same 550 ppm concentration limit and enhanced adaptive capacity Source: Yohe et al., 2006b.

respectively. Significant improvement is seen in 2050, but adaptation alone still cannot reduce extreme vulnerability worldwide in 2100. The lower panels present the effect of limiting atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to 550 ppm along least-cost emissions trajectories; global mean temperature is 1.3°C and 3.1°C higher than 1990 levels by 2050 and 2100 in this case. In the lower left panels, adaptive capacity is again held constant at current levels. Mitigation reduces vulnerability across much of the world in 2050, but extreme vulnerability persists in developing countries and threatens developed countries in 2100. Mitigation alone cannot overcome climate risk. Finally, the lower right panels show the combined effects of investments in enhanced adaptive capacity and mitigation. Climate risks are substantially reduced in 2050, but significant vulnerabilities reappear by 2100. Developing countries are still most vulnerable. Developed countries are also vulnerable, but they see noticeable benefits from the complementary effects of the policy portfolio. These results suggest that global mitigation efforts up to 2050 would benefit developing countries more than developed countries when combined with enhanced adaptation. By 2100, however, climate change would produce significant vulnerabilities ubiquitously even if a relatively restrictive concentration cap were implemented in combination with a programme designed to enhance adaptive capacity significantly.

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