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4.3 Assumptions about future trends 218

4.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities 219

4.4.1 Biogeochemical cycles and biotic feedback 219

4.4.2 Deserts 222

Box 4.2 Vegetation response to rainfall variability in the Sahel 224

4.4.3 Grasslands and savannas 224

4.4.4 Mediterranean ecosystems 226

4.4.5 Forests and woodlands 227

4.4.6 Tundra and Arctic/Antarctic ecosystems 230

Box 4.3 Polar bears - a species in peril? 231

4.4.7 Mountains 232

4.4.8 Freshwater wetlands, lakes and rivers 233

4.4.9 Oceans and shallow seas 234

Box 4.4 Coral reefs: endangered by climate change? 235

4.4.10 Cross-biome impacts 237

Box 4.5 Crossing biomes: impacts of climate change on migratory birds 239

4.4.11 Global synthesis including impacts on biodiversity 239

4.5 Costs and valuation of ecosystem goods and services 245

4.6 Acclimation and adaptation: practices, options and constraints 246

4.6.1 Adaptation options 246

4.6.2 Assessing the effectiveness and costs of adaptation options 247

4.6.3 Implications for biodiversity 247

4.6.4 Interactions with other policies and policy implications 248

4.7 Implications for sustainable development ...248

4.7.1 Ecosystems services and sustainable development 248

4.7.2 Subsistence livelihoods and indigenous peoples...248

4.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities ...249

Appendix 4.1 250

References 252

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