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in Asia, 408,478,487 avian, 700

climate change impacts on, 408,409-410,418

climate-related factors and, 48,478

distribution, transmission and seasonality of, 393,404,

435,437-439,446,487 epidemic areas in Africa, 438,446 future risks, 406,407-408 geographic range of, 393,400,403,404,437-439 in Latin America, 408,584, 586, 591,593, 599 observed changes, 108-109 See also Diseases; Human health Maldives, 694,703-705,708 Malnutrition, 393, 394, 399-400,407 projections, 48,298,299,418 in small islands, 701 Mammals in Africa, 435,449

in Australia/New Zealand region, 512 marine, 56, 236, 565, 668-669, 696 migration corridors, 525 observed changes, 100, 103 in polar regions, 660, 666 See also specific mammals Management. See Governance/government; Technology Managed systems, 31,51,71 definition, 82

observed changes in, 79-131

See also Agriculture; Observed changes and responses Manatees, 449

Mangrove forests, 92, 317, 329,696 in Africa, 449

in Asia, 49,471,472,477,481,485,492 conservation of, 492,495 in Latin America, 586, 590 observed changes, 816 Marine ecosystems, 213-214,234-236 adaptation, 295, 719 globalisation and, 719, 730 observed changes, 28, 81, 94-96,115-116 in polar regions, 655, 658-660, 668-671 projected changes, 38, 49 resilience of, 719 vulnerability/risk, 74, 788 See also Coastal systems; Fisheries; Oceans Marine fisheries. See Fisheries Marine mammals, 56,236,565,668-669,696

See also specific mammals Market impacts*, 74,75,137,781,782, 787,790-791,796, 798

Mediterranean islands, 691,696

See also Small islands Mediterranean region. See Europe Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs), 214,226-227 Megadeltas, 40,41

in Asia, 40, 64,279, 327,484-485,493,496 in polar regions (Arctic), 674

sea-level rise impacts, 484-485 vulnerabilities, 41, 64, 377 See also Ganges-Brahmaputra delta Mekong River/delta, 279,327,483,485,489,496

See also Deltas; Megadeltas Meloidogyne incognita, 597 Meningitis*, 399-400,438,439 Mental disorders, as impact of disasters, 399 Meridional overturning circulation (MOC). See

Thermohaline circulation (THC) Meta-analysis, 112-116 Methane release from methane hydrates, 662, 793

release from permafrost, 38, 88,213, 231, 662,667, 793

social cost of, 822

warming influence of, vs. carbon dioxide, 655, 662 See also Greenhouse gases (GHGs) Methane hydrates, 662, 793 Methods. See Assessment methods Mexico adaptation, 722, 734 agriculture, 586, 592 See also Latin America Microclimate*, 84,101,102,439 Mid-latitude islands, 689, 695

See also Small islands Migration, 237

of African ungulates, 226

of birds, 100, 223-224, 230,239,403,449, 625, 666, 696 climate change impacts on, 237, 239, 509 drought and, 399 environmental, 365,368 of fish, 98, 333

habitat fragmentation and, 783 impacts of polar region changes on, 662, 666 of wetland species, 234 See also Migration, human Migration corridors. See Ecological corridors Migration, human, 365,728,736

as adaptation strategy, 452,492,728, 736 in Africa, 452 in Asia, 488,491-492 in Latin America, 587, 595 rural-to-urban, 488, 492 from small islands, 697, 708, 736 vulnerability/risk, 787 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)*, 75-76, 813, 819, 826-827, 834-835 targets, likelihood of meeting, 75-76, 813, 826-827 in coastal systems, 345 food security, 456 impacts of climate change on, 458 indicators used in, 834-835 list of, 826

water sector contribution to, 175, 200 See also Development; Sustainable development Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), 139,147, 816 alternate development pathways, 818

nitrogen fertiliser use, 182 water use, 182

See also Biodiversity; Ecosystems Millet, 49, 452, 482, 726 Mining industry, 522 Mires*. See Bogs

Mississippi River/delta, 326,332, 333,377

See also Deltas; Megadeltas Mitigation*, 70-73,76,798-803 adaptive capacity and, 827-832 capacity, 763

costs and benefits, 749, 756-757, 802 crop production and, 284 damages avoided, 756-757 definitions, 749, 750, 763

differences, similarities and complementarities, 750 global vulnerability projections with and without mitigation, 830-831 implementation, 747, 766-770 indigenous knowledge and, 456-457, 832, 833 inter-relationships with adaptation (See Adaptation and mitigation inter-relationships) introduction, 748-750 methods in mitigation assessment, 798-803 regions and sectors, 757-760 response capacity and development pathways, 747,

763-766, 767 risk management assessment and, 139-141 risk reduction by, 782 risks of delay in, 782, 802, 804 scales, 747, 749, 753-754, 767-769 scenarios, 35, 139-141, 158-160, 799-803, 813, 830-831 substitutability for adaptation, 749, 753-754, 766-767 synergies, 72, 747,754-756, 762-763, 813, 827-832 trade-offs, 747, 754-756, 762

See also Adaptation; Adaptation and mitigation interrelationships; Carbon dioxide; Greenhouse gases (GHGs); Overshoot scenarios Mixed layer*, 91

MOC (meridional overturning circulation). See

Thermohaline circulation (THC) Models. See Climate models Modes of climate variability, 794-795

See also Climate variability; El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Northern Annular Mode; Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); Southern Annular Mode Molluscs, 236,243,291,292

See also Pteropods Mongolia, 486, 487 See also Asia

Monsoons*

in Asia, 472,484 in Latin America, 585 projected changes, 795 Montane* ecosystems/species, 227,230,232,243,244 Montreal Protocol, 495

Morbidity*

diarrhoeal diseases, 50,471,478,481 extreme events and, 701 temperature extremes and, 625 Morphology*, 103 Mortality*, 43,393

child mortality, 394,401

cold-related, 51, 108, 393,407,408,411,418, 557 diarrhoeal diseases, 50,471,478,481 extreme weather events and, 620, 626, 701 global climate-related, 43, 791 global climate-related, costs of, 415 heat-related, 108, 396-398,487, 519, 524, 525, 557, 625, 733

risk areas in Africa, 438

See also Diseases; Heat stress; Heatwaves; Human health Mosquito-borne diseases, 400,524,625

See also Dengue fever; Malaria Mosquitoes, 403,487

Anopheles spp., 108,416,439 Culex, 625 pitcher plant, 104

Stegomyia aegypti (formerly Aedes aegypti), 403-404,524 Wyeomyia smithii, 403 Mountain regions, 228,232-233 adaptation, 52, 559

adaption option limits/limitations, 52,543, 559 adaptive capacity, 52 in Africa, 48,439,440,449 biodiversity, 48, 52 in Europe, 52, 543, 551-552, 559, 565 human health, 414 observed changes, 102-103 vulnerability/risk, 52, 788 Mountain Wheatear, 224 Mouse (Mus musculus), 103 Multilateral Environmental Agreements, 72,495 Multinucleated sphere X (MSX) disease, 292 Multiple stresses, 78,361, 372, 373,813, 816-819 adaptation, 359, 384, 816-819 adaptive capacity and, 719, 729 in Africa, 48, 69,435,436,440,442,454,457 in Asia, 50,471,492 catalogue of, 816 in coastal systems, 40, 317, 336 in ecosystems, 37,213, 215, 241,246-247 in food, fibre and forest products, 277-278,279, 290 in India, 71

in industry, settlement and society, 359, 361, 372, 373,

374-376, 377 in North America, 623, 624 uncertainties caused by, 783 vulnerability and, 75 Musk oxen, 666,667

Narwhal (Monodon monoceros), 236,669 Nasca civilization, 605

National Adaptation Programmes (Plans) of Action

(NAPAs), 69,719,731-732 Natural systems interaction of with human sub-systems, 318 observed changes in, 79-131

See also Observed changes and responses; specific systems and regions Navigation

International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 495 in North America, 56, 619, 628, 635 in polar regions, 88, 676 NDVI. See Normalised Difference Vegetation Index Nepal

Tsho Rolpa project, 719, 721, 723 water resources, 477 See also Asia Net biome production (NBP)*, 221 Net ecosystem production (NEP)*, 228 Net primary production (NPP)*

in Asia, 481

estimated changes (1982-1999), 106 in Europe, 552 global, 213, 220, 234 in lakes and rivers, 234 in North America, 621,622, 629-630 observed changes, 106 The Netherlands adaptation, 547, 719, 722,724 cost of nature conservation, 247 human health, 395, 414 See also Europe New Zealand. See Australia/New Zealand region Nile River/delta, 143, 339,445,485

See also Deltas; Megadeltas Nipah virus, 404 Nitrogen, 153,221,816

leaching, 52,294, 542, 543,545 Nitrogen fertiliser use, 182 Nitrogen oxides (NOx)*, 278 No regrets policy*, 246,472,633 Non-climate drivers of change, 26-28, 84-85,135 Non-linearity*, 141,148,215,216,219 Non-market impacts*, 790-791 Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)*, 657 North America, 55-56,61-62,617-652

adaptation, 619, 620, 623, 633, 635-638, 722 agriculture, 620, 623-624, 627, 631, 636 assumptions about future trends, 626-627 case studies, 623, 628, 633, 639 cities, integration of impacts, 633 climate trends, 626-627

coastal regions, 55, 619,621, 622-623,626, 630 construction, 379, 635

costs of extreme weather events, 332, 338, 619, 621, 626, 630

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 620-626 droughts, 619,622,623,624,625,626

ecosystems, 619, 620, 621, 622, 629-630, 635 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 623, 627, 630 energy, industry and transportation, 626,630, 633, 634-635, 636

extreme weather events, 55, 619, 621, 625-626, 632-633

fisheries, 620, 624, 631-632

floods, 55,620,626,630,633

freshwater resources, 619, 621-622, 627-629, 628

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 55-56, 61-62,242-245,

619,627-635, 825, 829 Great Lakes, 56,619, 627-629,628, 634 heatwaves, 619, 620, 632, 733 human health, 55, 619, 620, 625, 632, 635 human settlement, 620, 625-626, 632-633, 633 hurricanes, 92,369, 399, 621,625-626, 627 (See also specific hurricanes) indigenous peoples, 55,619, 625, 639,730-731 infrastructure, 55,619, 625-626,632, 633, 635,636, 638 interacting impacts, 635 introduction, 619-620 multiple stresses, 623, 624 observed changes, 30,115-116 phenology, 99-100,621,622, 631 precipitation, 151, 621-622, 621,627 resources, 620

sea-level rise, 346,619, 620, 621,623, 630 social, economic and institutional context, 627 soil erosion, 190 sustainable development, 639 temperature, 55,150, 619, 620, 621, 626-627 tourism and recreation, 626, 627, 634 uncertainties and research priorities, 639-640 urban indicators, 363 vulnerabilities, 619, 620-626, 627-635 water resources, 55-56, 629, 633 wetlands, 620, 630 wildlife, 622

See also Canada; United States North American Free Trade Agreement, 731 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)*, 292, 319,550,551 marine ecosystems and, 96,101 projected changes, 794 See also Modes of climate variability North Atlantic Sub-tropical High (NAH), 691 Northern Annular Mode, 794

See also Modes of climate variability Northern Hemisphere temperature (NHT), 96 Nutrition, 399-400

See also Malnutrition; Undernutrition

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