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Malaria, global and regional

Biological model, calibrated from laboratory and field data, for falciparum malaria

HadCM3, driven by SRES A1FI, A2, B1,and B2 scenarios. 2020s, 2050s, 2080s van Lieshout et al., 2004

Malaria, global and regional

Population at risk in areas where climate conditions are suitable for malaria transmission

Biological model, calibrated from laboratory and field data, for falciparum malaria

HadCM3, driven by SRES A1FI, A2, B1,and B2 scenarios. 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

SRES population Estimates of the additional population at risk for >1

scenarios; month transmission range from >220 million (A1 Fl)

current malaria to >400 million (A2) when climate and population control status growth are included. The global estimates are used as an severely reduced if transmission risk for more than 3

indicator of consecutive months per year is considered, with a adaptive net reduction in the global population at risk under capacity the A2 and B1 scenarios.

van Lieshout et al., 2004

Malaria, Africa

Person-months at risk for stable falciparum transmission

MARA/ARMAa model of climate suitability for stable falciparum transmission

HadCM3, driven by SRES A1FI, A2a, and B1 scenarios. 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

1.1 to 1.3°C in 2020s; Estimates based 1.9 to 3.0°C in 2050s; on 1995 2.6 to 5.3°C in 2080s population

By 2100, 16 to 28% increase in person-months of exposure across all scenarios, including a 5 to 7% increase in (mainly altitudinal) distribution, with limited latitudinal expansion. Countries with large areas that are close to the climatic thresholds for transmission show large potential increases across all scenarios.

Tanser et al., 2003

Malaria, Map of climate Africa suitability for stable falciparum transmission [minimum 4 months suitable per year]

MARA/ARMAa model of HadCM2 ensemble climate suitability for stable falciparum transmission mean with medium-high emissions. 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

Climate factors only (monthly mean and minimum temperature, and monthly precipitation)

Decreased transmission in 2020s in south-east Thomas et Africa. By 2050s and 2080s, localised increases in al., 2004 highland and upland areas, and decreases around Sahel and south central Africa.

Malaria,

Zimbabwe,

Africa

Climate suitability for transmission

MARA/ARMAa model of climate suitability for stable falciparum transmission

16 climate projections from COSMIC. Climate sensitivities of 1.4 and 4.5°C; equivalent C02 of 350 and 750 ppm 2100

None

Highlands become more suitable for transmission. The lowlands and regions with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity, emissions scenario and GCM.

Malaria, Britain

Probability of malaria transmission

Statistical multivariate regression, based on historic distributions, land cover, agricultural factors and climate determinants

1 to 2.5°C average temperature increase 2050s

1 to 2.5°C average temperature increase

None. No changes in land cover or agricultural factors.

Increase in risk of local malaria transmission of 8 to Kuhn et al., 15%; highly unlikely that indigenous malaria will be 2002 re-established.

Malaria, Portugal

Percentage days per year with favourable temperature for disease transmission

Transmission risk based on published thresholds

PROMES for 2040s and HadRM2 for 2090s

Average annual temperature increase of 3.3°C in 2040s and 5.8°C in 2090s, compared with 1981-1990 and 2006-2036, respectively

Some assumptions about vector distribution and/or introduction

Significant increase in the number of days suitable Casimiro for survival of malaria vectors; however, if no and infected vectors are present, then the risk is very Calheiros, low for vivax and negligible for falciparum malaria. 2002

Malaria, Australia

Geographical area suitable/unsuitable for maintenance of vector

Empirical-statistical model (CLIMEX) based on current distribution, relative abundance, and seasonal phenology of main malaria vector

CSIROMk2 and ECHAM4 driven by SRES B1,A1B, and A1 Fl emissions scenarios 2020, 2050

0.4 to 2.0°C annual average temperature increase in the 2030s, and 1.0 to 6.0°C in the 2070s, relative to 1990 (CSIRO)

Assumes adaptive capacity; used

Australian population projections

'Malaria receptive zone' expands southward to McMichael include some regional towns by 2050s. Absolute et al., risk of reintroduction very low. 2003b a The Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa/Atlas du Risque de la Malaria en Afrique Project

Table 8.2. Continued.

Health effect Metric

Model

Climate scenario, with Temperature

Population proj- Main results

Reference

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