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-1 0 Change in annual mean

temperature (°C): 1955 to 2005

Annual precipitation has increased for most of North America with large increases in northern Canada, but with decreases in the south-west U.S., the Canadian Prairies and the eastern Arctic (see Working Group I Fourth Assessment (WGIAR4) Trenberth et al., 2007 Section 3.3.2.2, Figures 3.13 and 3.14) (Hengeveld et al., 2005; Shein, 2006). Heavy precipitation frequencies in the U.S. were at a minimum in the 1920s and 1930s, and increased to the 1990s (1895 to 2000) (Kunkel, 2003; Groisman et al., 2004). In Canada there is no consistent trend in extreme precipitation (Vincent and Mekis, 2006).

14.2.1 Freshwater resources

Streamflow in the eastern U.S. has increased 25% in the last 60 years (Groisman et al., 2004), but over the last century has decreased by about 2%/decade in the central Rocky Mountain region (Rood et al., 2005). Since 1950, stream discharge in both the Colorado and Columbia river basins has decreased, at the same time annual evapotranspiration (ET) from the conterminous U.S. increased by 55 mm (Walter et al., 2004). In regions with winter snow, warming has shifted the magnitude and timing of hydrologic events (Mote et al., 2005; Regonda et al., 2005; Stewart et al., 2005). The fraction of annual precipitation falling as rain (rather than snow) increased at 74% of the weather stations studied in the western mountains of the U.S. from 1949 to 2004 (Knowles et al., 2006). In Canada, warming from 1900 to 2003 led to a decrease in total precipitation as snowfall in the west and Prairies (Vincent and Mekis, 2006). Spring and summer snow cover has decreased in the U.S. west (Groisman et al., 2004). April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has declined 15 to 30% since 1950 in the western mountains of North America, particularly at lower elevations and primarily due to warming rather than changes in precipitation (Figure 14.1a) (see Mote et al., 2003; Mote et al., 2005; Lemke et al., 2007: Section 4.2.2.2.1). Whitfield and Cannon (2000) and Zhang et al. (2001) reported earlier spring runoff across Canada. Summer (May to August) flows of the Athabasca River have declined 20% since 1958 (Schindler and Donahue, 2006). Streamflow peaks in the snowmelt-dominated western mountains of the U.S. occurred 1 to 4 weeks earlier in 2002 than in 1948 (Stewart et al., 2005). Break up of river and lake ice across North America has advanced by 0.2 to 12.9 days over the last 100 years (Magnuson et al., 2000).

Vulnerability to extended drought is increasing across North America as population growth and economic development create more demands from agricultural, municipal and industrial uses, resulting in frequent over-allocation of water resources (Alberta Environment, 2002; Morehouse et al., 2002; Postel and Richter, 2003; Pulwarty et al., 2005). Although drought has been more frequent and intense in the western part of the U.S. and Canada, the east is not immune from droughts and attendant reductions in water supply, changes in water quality and ecosystem function, and challenges in allocation (Dupigny-Giroux, 2001; Bonsal et al., 2004; Wheaton et al., 2005).

14.2.2 Ecosystems

Three clear, observable connections between climate and terrestrial ecosystems are the seasonal timing of life-cycle events or phenology, responses of plant growth or primary production, and biogeographic distribution. Direct impacts on organisms interact with indirect effects of ecological mechanisms (competition, herbivory1, disease), and disturbance (wildfire, hurricanes, human activities).

Phenology, productivity and biogeography

Global daily satellite data, available since 1981, indicate earlier onset of spring 'greenness' by 10-14 days over 19 years, particularly across temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (Myneni et al., 2001; Lucht et al., 2002). Field studies confirm these satellite observations. Many species are expanding leaves or flowering earlier (e.g., earlier flowering in lilac - 1.8 days/decade, 1959 to 1993, 800 sites across North America (Schwartz and Reiter, 2000), honeysuckle - 3.8 days/decade, western U.S. (Cayan et al., 2001), and leaf expansion in apple and grape - 2 days/decade, 72 sites in northeastern U.S. (Wolfe et al., 2005), trembling aspen - 2.6

days/decade since 1900, Edmonton (Beaubien and Freeland, 2000)) (Figure 14.1b). The timing of autumn leaf fall, which is controlled by a combination of temperature, photoperiod and water deficits, shows weaker trends (Badeck et al., 2004).

Net primary production (NPP) in the continental U.S. increased nearly 10% from 1982 to 1998 (Figure 14.1f) (Boisvenue and Running, 2006), with the largest increases in croplands and grasslands of the Central Plains due to improved water balance (Lobell et al., 2002; Nemani et al., 2002; Hicke and Lobell, 2004).

North American forests can be influenced indirectly by climate through effects on disturbance, especially from wildfire, storms, insects and diseases. The area burned in wildfires has increased dramatically over the last three decades (see Box 14.1).

Wildlife population and community dynamics

North American animals are responding to climate change, with effects on phenology, migration, reproduction, dormancy and geographic range (Walther et al., 2002; Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Root et al., 2003; Parmesan and Galbraith, 2004; Root et al., 2005). Warmer springs have led to earlier nesting for 28 migrating bird species on the east coast of the U.S. (Butler, 2003) and to earlier egg laying for Mexican jays (Brown et al., 1999) and tree swallows (Dunn and Winkler, 1999). In northern Canada, red squirrels are breeding 18 days earlier than 10 years ago (Reale et al., 2003). Several frog species now initiate breeding calls 10 to 13 days earlier than a century ago (Gibbs and Breisch, 2001). In lowland California, 70% of 23 butterfly species advanced the date of first spring flights by an average 24 days over 31 years (Forister and Shapiro, 2003). Reduced water depth, related to recent warming, in Oregon lakes has increased exposure of toad eggs to UV-B, leading to increased mortality from a fungal parasite (Kiesecker et al., 2001; Pounds, 2001).

Many North American species have shifted their ranges, typically to the north or to higher elevations (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). Edith's checkerspot butterfly has become locally extinct in the southern, low-elevation portion of its western North American range but has extended its range 90 km north and 120 m higher in elevation (Parmesan, 1996; Crozier, 2003; Parmesan and Galbraith, 2004). Red foxes have expanded northward in northern Canada, leading to retreat of competitively subordinate arctic foxes (Hersteinsson and Macdonald, 1992).

14.2.3 Coastal regions

The North American coast is long and diverse with a wide range of trends in relative sea level (Figure 14.1d) (Shaw et al., 1998; Dyke and Peltier, 2000; Zervas, 2001). Relative sea level (see glossary) is rising in many areas, yet coastal residents are often unaware of the trends and their impacts on coastal retreat and flooding (O'Reilly et al., 2005). In the Great Lakes, both extremely high and extremely low water levels have been damaging and disruptive (Moulton and Cuthbert, 2000). Demand for waterfront property and building land continues to grow, increasing the value of property at risk (Heinz Center, 2000; Forbes et al., 2002b; Small and Nichols, 2003).

1 The consumption of plants by animals. 622

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