Latin America

(Parry et al., 2004)

HadCM3 A1FI (1xCO2) HadCM3 B1 (1xCO2) HadCM3 A1FI (2xCO2) HadCM3 B1 (2xCO2)

Cereal yields:

-5 to-2.5 (2020) -30 to-5 (2050) -10 to-2.5 (2020) -10 to-2.5 (2050) -5 to+2.5 (2020) -10 to+10 (2050) -5 to -2.5 (2020) -5 to +2.5 (2050)

-30 (2080) -30 to-10 (2080) -30 to +5 (2080) -10 to +2.5(2080)

Mexico, Veracruz

(Gay et al., 2004)

HadCM2 ECHAM4 (2050)

Coffee: 73% to 78% reduction in production

Brazil, Sao Paulo

(Pinto etal., 2002)

+1°C + 15% precip. +5.8°C + 15%precip.

Coffee: 10% reduction in suitable lands for coffee 97% reduction in suitable lands for coffee

Costa Rica

(NC-Costa Rica, 2000)

Sensitivity analysis

Coffee: Increases (up to 2°C) in temperature would benefit crop yields

I = Irrigated crops; precip. = precipitation; Values correspond to soybean sowing in winter and summer for 2010 and 2020; *2 Increases every 10 years. *3 SESA= South East South America; *42To: doubled variance of temperature. Bn: bean, Sg: sugar cane, Pt: potato.

Vulnerability studies foresee the ongoing reductions in glaciers. A highly stressed condition is projected between 2015 and 2025 in the water availability in Colombia, affecting water supply and ecosytem functioning in the páramos (IDEAM, 2004), and very probably impacting on the availability of water supply for 60% of the population of Peru (Vásquez, 2004). The projected glacier retreat would also affect hydroelectricity generation in some countries, such as Colombia (IDEAM, 2004) and Peru; one of the more affected rivers would be the Mantaro, where an hydroelectric plant generates 40% of Peru's electricity and provides the energy supply for 70% of the country's industries, concentrated in Lima (UNMSM, 2004) .

In Ecuador, recent studies indicate that seven of the eleven principal basins would be affected by a a decrease in their annual runoff, with monthly decreases varying up to 421% of unsatisfied

Table 13.6. Net increases in the number of people living in water-stressed watersheds in Latin America (millions) by 2025 and 2055 (Arnell, 2004).

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