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Philippines
Increase in mean annual, maximum and minimum temperatures by 0.14°C between 1971 to 2000
Increase in annual mean rainfall since 1980s and in number of rainy days since 1990s, increase in inter-annual variability of onset of rainfall
PAGASA, 2001; Cruz et al., 2006
10.2.4 Impacts of observed changes in climate trends, variability and extreme events
102.4.1 Agriculture and food production
Production of rice, maize and wheat in the past few decades has declined in many parts of Asia due to increasing water stress arising partly from increasing temperature, increasing frequency of El Niño and reduction in the number of rainy days (Wijeratne, 1996; Aggarwal et al., 2000; Jin et al., 2001; Fischer et al., 2002; Tao et al., 2003a; Tao et al., 2004). In a study at the International
Rice Research Institute, the yield of rice was observed to decrease by 10% for every 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature (Peng et al., 2004). A decline in potentially good agricultural land in East Asia and substantial increases in suitable areas and production potentials in currently cultivated land in Central Asia have also been reported (Fischer et al., 2002). Climate change could make it more difficult than it is already to step up the agricultural production to meet the growing demands in Russia (Izrael and Sirotenko, 2003) and other developing countries in Asia.
|
Country/Region |
Key trend |
Reference |
|
Heatwaves | ||
|
Russia |
Heatwaves broke past 22-year record in May 2005 |
Shein, 2006 |
|
Mongolia |
Heatwave duration has increased by 8 to 18 days in last 40 years; coldwave duration has shortened by 13.3 days |
Batimaetal., 2005a |
|
China |
Increase in frequency of short duration heatwaves in recent decade, increasing warmer days and nights in recent decades |
Zhai et al., 1999; Zhai and Pan, 2003 |
|
Japan |
Increasing incidences of daily maximum temperature >35°C, decrease in extremely low temperature |
Kawahara and Yamazaki, 1999; Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005 |
|
Korea |
Increasing frequency of extreme maximum temperatures with higher values in 1980s and 1990s; decrease in frequency of record low temperatures during 1958 to 2001 |
Ryoo et al., 2004 |
|
India |
Frequency of hot days and multiple-day heatwave has increased in past century; increase in deaths due to heat stress in recent years |
De and Mukhopadhyay, 1998; Lal, 2003 |
|
South-East Asia |
Increase in hot days and warm nights and decrease in cold days and nights between 1961 and 1998 |
Manton et al., 2001; Cruz et al., 2006; Tran et al., 2005 |
|
Intense Rains and Floods | ||
|
Russia |
Increase in heavy rains in western Russia and decrease in Siberia; increase in number of days with more than 10 mm rain; 50 to 70% increase in surface runoff in Siberia |
Gruza et al., 1999; Izrael and Anokhin, 2001; Ruosteenoja et al., 2003; Gruza and Rankova, 2004 |
|
China |
Increasing frequency of extreme rains in western and southern parts including Changjiang river, and decrease in northern regions; more floods in Changjiang river in past decade; more frequent floods in North-East China since 1990s; more intense summer rains in East China; severe flood in 1999; seven-fold increase in frequency of floods since 1950s |
Zhai et al., 1999; Ding and Pan, 2002; Zhai and Pan, 2003; Zhai, 2004 |
|
Japan |
Increasing frequency of extreme rains in past 100 years attributed to frontal systems and typhoons; serious flood in 2004 due to heavy rains brought by 10 typhoons; increase in maximum rainfall during 1961 to 2000 based on records from 120 stations |
Kawahara and Yamazaki, 1999; Isobe, 2002; Kajiwara et al., 2003; Kanai et al., 2004 |
|
South Asia |
Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh, Nepal and north-east states of India during 2002, 2003 and 2004; a record 944 mm of rainfall in Mumbai, India on 26 to 27 July 2005 led to loss of over 1,000 lives with loss of more than US$250 million; floods in Surat, Barmer and in Srinagar during summer monsoon season of 2006; 17 May 2003 floods in southern province of Sri Lanka were triggered by 730 mm rain |
India Meteorological Department, 2002 to 2006; Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 2003. |
|
South-East Asia |
Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Vietnam; landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and floods in Cambodia in 2000 |
FAO/WFP, 2000; Environment News Service, 2002; FAO, 2004a; Cruz et al., 2006; Tran etal., 2005 |
|
Droughts | ||
|
Russia |
Decreasing rain and increasing temperature by over 1 °C have caused droughts; 27 major droughts in 20th century have been reported |
Golubev and Dronin, 2003; Izrael and Sirotenko, 2003 |
|
Mongolia |
Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in recent years; droughts in 1999 to 2002 affected 70% of grassland and killed 12 million livestock |
Batima, 2003; Natsagdorj et al., 2005 |
|
China |
Increase in area affected by drought has exceeded 6.7 Mha since 2000 in Beijing, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia and North China; increase in dust storm affected area |
Chen et al., 2001; Yoshino, 2000, 2002; Zhou, 2003 |
|
South Asia |
50% of droughts associated with El Niño; consecutive droughts in 1999 and 2000 in Pakistan and N-W India led to sharp decline in watertables; consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 caused crop failures, mass starvation and affected ~11 million people in Orissa; droughts in N-E India during summer monsoon of 2006 |
Webster et al., 1998; Lal, 2003; India Meteorological Department, 2006 |
|
South-East Asia |
Droughts normally associated with ENSO years in Myanmar, Laos, Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam; droughts in 1997 to 98 caused massive crop failures and water shortages and forest fires in various parts of Philippines, Laos and Indonesia |
Duong, 2000; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Glantz, 2001; PAGASA, 2001 |
|
Cyclones/Typhoons | ||
|
Philippines |
On an average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippines Area of Responsibility with about 8 to 9 landfall each year; with an increase of 4.2 in the frequency of cyclones entering PAR during the period 1990 to 2003 |
PAGASA, 2001 |
|
China |
Number and intensity of strong cyclones increased since 1950s; 21 extreme storm surges in 1950 to 2004 of which 14 occurred during 1986 to 2004 |
Fan and Li, 2005 |
|
South Asia |
Frequency of monsoon depressions and cyclones formation in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea on the decline since 1970 but intensity is increasing causing severe floods in terms of damages to life and property |
Lal, 2001, 2003 |
|
Japan |
Number of tropical storms has two peaks, one in mid 1960s and another in early 1990s, average after 1990 and often lower than historical average |
Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005 |
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