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baseline

SRES Increase in heat-related mortality from population baseline of 5.4 to 6 deaths/100,000 to scenarios. 5.8 to 15.1 deaths/100,000 by the Assumes some 2020s, 7.3 to 35.9 deaths/100,000 by acclimatisation. the 2050s, 19.5 to 248.4

deaths/100,000 by the 2080s

Dessai, 2003

Four cities in

California,

USA (Los

Angeles,

Sacramento,

Fresno,

Shasta Dam)

Annual number of heatwave days, length of heatwave season, and heat-related mortality

Empirical-statistical model derived from observed summer mortality

PCM and HadCM3 driven by SRES B1 and A1 FI emissions scenarios 2030s, 2080s

1.35 to 2.0°C in 2030s; 2.3 to 5.8°C in 2080s compared with 1961-1990 baseline

SRES Increase in annual number of days population classified as heatwave conditions. By scenarios. 2080s, in Los Angeles, number of Assumes some heatwave days increases 4-fold under adaptation. B1 and 6 to 8-fold under A1FI. Annual number of heat-related deaths in Los Angeles increases from about 165 in the 1990s to 319 to 1,182 under different scenarios.

Hayhoe, 2004

CSIROMk2, 0.8 to 5.5°C ECHAM4, and increase in HADCM2 driven annual

Australian Heat-related Empirical-

capital cities mortality in statistical

(Adelaide, people older model,

Brisbane, than derived from by SRES A2 maximum

Canberra, 65 years observed and B2 temperature in

Darwin, daily mortality emissions the capital cities,

Hobart, scenarios and compared with

Melbourne, a stabilisation 1961-1990

Perth, scenario at 450 baseline

Sydney) ppm2100

Population Increase in temperature-attributable growth and death rates from 82/100,000 across population all cities under the current climate to aging. No 246/100,000 in 2100; death rates acclimatisation. decreased with implementation of policies to mitigate GHG.

McMichael et al., 2003b emissions of ozone precursors, the extent to which climate change affects the frequency of future 'ozone episodes' will depend on the occurrence of the required meteorological conditions (Jones and Davies, 2000; Sousounis et al., 2002; Hogrefe et al., 2004; Laurila et al., 2004; Mickley et al., 2004). Table 8.4 summarises projections of future morbidity and mortality based on current exposure-mortality relationships applied to projected ozone concentrations. An increase in ozone concentrations will affect the ability of regions to achieve air-quality targets. There are no projections for cities in low- or middle-income countries, despite the heavier pollution burdens in these populations.

There are few models of the impact of climate change on other pollutants. These tend to emphasise the role of local abatement strategies in determining the future levels of, primarily, particulate matter, and tend to project the probability of air-quality standards being exceeded instead of absolute concentrations (Jensen et al., 2001; Guttikunda et al., 2003; Hicks, 2003; Slanina and Zhang, 2004); the results vary by region. The severity and duration of summertime regional air pollution episodes (as diagnosed by tracking combustion carbon monoxide and black carbon) are projected to increase in the north-eastern and Midwest USA by 2045-2052 because of climate-change-induced decreases in the frequency of surface cyclones (Mickley et al., 2004). A UK study projected that climate change will result in a large decrease in days with high particulate concentrations due to changes in meteorological conditions (Anderson et al., 2001). Because transboundary

Table 8.4. Projected impacts of climate change on ozone-related health effects.

Area

Health

Model

Climate

Temperature

Population

Main results

Reference

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