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market impacts, 791 migration, 437,441,452

multiple stresses, 48, 69,435,436,440,442,454,457

New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), 767

observed changes, 30, 91, 108-109,115-116

pastoralist coping strategies, 293,457

population and environment interactions, 441

precipitation, 151,436

resilience in, 48-49,452,453

rivers/river basins, 445,446, 767-769

Sahel region, 216, 224, 237,436,437,444

savannas, 225, 226

sea-level rise, 346, 435, 447, 450

smallholder farmers, 731

socio-economic scenarios, 297,444

sustainable development, 457

temperature, 150,436

tourism, 435,439,449,450,459

uncertainties and research priorities, 457-460

ungulates, 226

urban indicators, 363

vegetation cover, 436-437

vulnerability/risk, 40,48-49, 64,444-450,451,459, 788, 791

water resources, 48, 91, 284, 370, 377,435,437,441-442,

444-446,451,458-459 water stress, 48,435,437,444,445,451 West African Monetary Union (WAMU), 767 African horse sickness (AHS), 555 African Succulent Karoo, 223,243,449,792 Aggregate impacts*, 64-65,75,784, 787,790,796-797, 813, 821-825

estimates of, history and present state of, 64-65, 813, 821-824

larger-scale aggregation, 82, 112-116 limitations of, 43, 65, 813 spatially-explicit methods, 824-825, 836 Agriculture adaptation, 38-39, 117, 294-296, 300, 721, 725-726, 760 adaptation costs, 725-726, 734 adaptation options, 70

in Africa, 48, 297,435,439,441,442,445,447-448,451, 452, 459

in Asia, 49,471,472,475,479-483

in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 516,518-520,

525,528, 529 biotechnology and, 296, 452, 555-556 in coastal systems, 333 costs, 296-297

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on, 277 in Europe, 52, 543, 545-546, 548-549, 554-556, 558,

560-561,565 extreme events and, 277,277,278 global area in cropland, 816 global production, temperature increase and, 790 growing season (See Growing season) importance of, 276

in Latin America, 54, 281, 584, 586, 591, 592, 597,598, 601-602 multiple stresses, 279

in North America, 620, 623-624, 627, 631, 636

observed changes, 81-82, 104-106

phenology, 31,81,105

in polar regions, 668

projected changes, 38

in small islands, 58, 689, 698-700

soil erosion and, 190

subsistence and smallholder, 39, 275,279, 281-282,

293-294,413,435,490,731 supply and demand in, 280-281 trade and, 275, 276, 284, 297, 300 vulnerability/risk, 31, 82, 787, 790, 791, 802 wastewater irrigation of crops, 189 water balance and, 280

See also Crop yields; Crops; Food, fibre and forest products; Livestock; Soil; specific crops AIR-CLIM Project, 139 Air pollution, 84

direct and indirect effects, 84 effects on plants, 276,278 in Europe, 557-558 from forest fires, 402 human health and, 401-402,408-412 in North America, 632 Air quality, 84, 372, 394 in Asia, 487

disease and, 401-402,408-412,413 Albedo*,84,231

global effect of regional changes in, 661 increase due to planned adaptation, 381 in polar regions, 655, 656, 661 Algal blooms*, 97,188,277,449,487,551 algal community changes, 98 dissolved inorganic carbon and, 329-330 harmful (HAB), 96, 234, 328,400, 551, 556 red tides, 485

See also Phytoplankton; Zooplankton Alien species. See Invasive species and invasive alien species (IAS)

Allergens, 31, 82,109, 393,402-403,558 Alpine* ecosystems, 50,52,99,232-233 adaptation limits/limitations, 52, 543,559 See also Mountain regions Alps. See Europe, European Alps Amazon region drought in, 400 fire in, 588

forest replacement by savanna, 54, 583 forests, 54, 218, 241,243, 281, 594-595,596 Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment, 604 AMICA project, 769 Amphibians in Europe, 52,543, 554, 565 extinctions of, 103, 230,233, 586, 590 in Latin America, 586, 590

in North America, 622,630 phenology, 100 Analogues, 32,145,146, 382 Andes region, 28,184,187,585 Annular modes, 794 Anopheles, 416

Anopheles arabiensis, 108,439 Anopheles gambiae, 439 Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), 794

Antarctic region. See Polar regions. See also Small islands Anthropogenic* climate change, 26,28, 81,781 larger-scale attribution studies, 112-116 linking climate-change causes with observed effects, 29 See also Climate change; Dangerous anthropogenic interference; Detection and attribution; Vulnerability assessment AOGCM. See Climate models Aquaculture*, 276-277,281,291-292 in Asia, 49, 281,482 in Europe, 555-556, 561 in Latin America, 593 Aquatic ecosystems. See Freshwater resources and management; Marine ecosystems Aquifers* coastal, 331 in North America, 629 observed changes, 90 salinisation of, 179, 186 Aragonite*, 38,94,213,234,235,236 Arboviruses*, 555 Arctic Ocean, 656, 662, 692

See also Polar regions Arctic Oscillation (AO), 95,794 Arctic region. See Polar regions Arid regions*

afforestation in, 758 in Africa, 435,439,442 in Asia, 478

freshwater resources in, 36,175, 176, 193-194, 331 vulnerability/risk in, 788 See also Desertification; Deserts Arsenic in groundwater, 179,587 Artificial experiments, 144-146 Asia, 49-50,59-60,469-506 adaptation, 471,490-493, 722 adaptive strategies, 472,490 agriculture, 49,471,472,475,479-483 aquaculture, 49, 281,482 assumptions about future trends, 478-479 biodiversity, 49,471,478,485-487,491 case studies, 493-494 climate, 471,472-473,475,478-479,480 climate variability, 471,472-478,475,479 coastal areas, 49, 92,472,477,479,484,491 coral reefs, 471,472,477,485,486 crop yields, 49, 106, 297,471,479-481 current sensitivity/vulnerability, 472-478 cyclones/typhoons, 473,476,479,489

deltas/megadeltas, 279,327,471,481,484-485,493,496 dengue fever, 478,487 development, 471,472,488-489,494-495 droughts, 49,473,476

ecosystems, natural, 49,471,477,485-487,491 El Nino/ENSO in, 473,475,477 energy, 111,488-489

extreme weather events, 473,476,479,488,489 financial aspects/insurance, 489 fires, 471,472,477-478,486 fisheries, 49,279, 281,471,482,489 floods, 49, 398,414,471,472,476,489 food security, 297, 399,471,479-481,482-483 forests/forestry, 471,472,477-478,481,485-486,488 future impacts and vulnerabilities, 49-50, 59-60,479-489,

788,791, 825, 829 glaciers, 49,471,472,477,481,483-484,487,493,494 grasslands, rangelands and endangered species, 483,486 heatwaves, 396-397,476,478,492, 733 hotspots, 481

human dimensions, 487-489,491-492

human health, 50, 395,408,472,478,481,487,491,791

human population, 49,477,479,484,488,491

human settlements/megacities, 472,485,491,493

hydrology, 471-472,477,483-484,490-491

industry, 488-489

infrastructure, 471,488-489,492

introduction, 471-472

livestock, 287,482,483

malaria, 408,478,487

migration, 488,491-492

multiple stresses, 50,471,492

natural resources, 474

observed changes, 30,49, 92,106,115-116,471,472-478,

475-477, 479 permafrost, 49,472,477,486-487 poverty and illiteracy, 489, 492, 494 precipitation, 151,472,476,478-479,480,481 regional characteristics, 472 regions/countries included, 472,473,474 sea-level rise, 49, 346,471,472,479,481,484-485,492 socio-economics, 474,479,487-489 sustainable development, 488,494-495 temperature, 150,478,479,480,481 tourism, 489, 492

uncertainties and research priorities, 495-497 urban indicators, 363 urbanisation, 488-489,491,494-495 vulnerability/risk, 64,479-489, 788,791 water resources, 49,471,471-472,477,481,483-484,

490-491,791 water stress, 471,472,484 See also specific countries Assessment of adaptation (See Adaptation assessment)

of observed changes and responses (See Observed changes and responses) participatory processes in, 813, 834

of response strategies, 797-804 of vulnerabilities (See Vulnerability assessment) See also CCIAV assessment; Impact assessment; Integrated assessment Assessment methods, 29, 31-35,133-171 approaches, 136-141

conclusions and future directions, 161-162 coping ranges, 142-143 data needs for, 144 developments in, 141-144 downscaling, 135

future characterisations, 32-35, 135, 144-161 risk management, 135

stakeholder involvement, 31-32, 135,141-142 thresholds and risk criteria, 141 top-down vs. bottom-up approaches, 136, 748-749 See also Adaptation assessment; CCIAV assessment Asthma, 523,632,689,701 Atlantic cod, 670 Atmosphere*

carbon content, 214 composition, future scenarios, 152-153 projected changes, 662 See also specific gases and components Atolls. See Coral atolls Attribution. See Detection and attribution Australia/New Zealand region, 50-51,60,507-540 adaptation, 50, 509, 513-514, 524-526, 528,530-531 adaptive capacity, 50

agriculture, 50, 509, 516, 518-520, 525, 528, 529 assumptions about future trends, 514-516 Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand, 509,528, 530 beef industry, 283

biodiversity, 50,242-245, 509, 517-518, 518, 528

case studies, 526-528

climate scenarios, 50, 514-516

costs of extreme weather events, 50, 511, 513

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 510-514

droughts, 50,509,510-511,511,515,519

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 510,521

energy, 511, 516, 523-524, 529

extreme weather events, 50, 509,511, 513

fires, 50, 509, 511,517,792

fisheries, 512, 521

flood and waste water management, 517 food security, 528-529, 529 forestry, 50, 509, 520, 525, 529 freshwater resources, 516-517

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 50-51, 60,242-245,

516-524,528,529, 829 Great Barrier Reef, 50, 320, 509,512, 518, 527 heatwaves, 50,411, 509, 511, 524 horticulture, 519 hotspots, 50,51,509,529,530 human health, 395,408,409, 524, 525, 529 human population, 509, 510, 516,522 human systems, 50, 509, 511

immigration/migration, 522, 531 indigenous people, 50, 522-523, 524 infrastructure, 50, 509, 525, 529 introduction, 510

invasive/alien species, 512, 518, 520 land degradation, 518-519, 520 land management, 751-752 migration corridors, 525

natural systems/ecosystems, 50, 509, 511, 512, 517-518,

525,528,529, 530 observed changes, 30, 50,115-116, 509, 510-512,512 pastoral/rangeland farming, 513, 519-520 phenology, 100 precipitation, 50,151, 515 saltwater intrusion, 512, 517 savannas, 225, 226

sea-level rise, 50, 346, 509, 510, 512, 515-516, 520-521

settlements, industry and societies, 521-522

Sunshine Coast, 528

sustainable development, 528-529, 529

temperature, 50,150, 509, 510-511, 514-515

tick infestation, 520

tourism and recreation, 523, 527, 529

uncertainties and research priorities, 529-531

vulnerability/risk, 50-51,242-245, 509, 513, 516-524, 525,

529,531, 829 water quality, 517

water resources, 50, 143, 199,511-512,514, 526, 528 water security, 50,509, 516-517,519, 525, 529 Wide Bay-Burnett, Queensland, Australia, 528 Autonomous adaptation in Australia/New Zealand region, 513 damage avoidance, 295, 754-760 definition, 294

in food, fibre and forest products, 294-295

in Latin America, 593

in North America, 637-638

in small islands, 706

See also Adaptation; Adaptive capacity

Bangladesh adaptation, 719, 722, 724, 732, 832 deaths associated with cyclones, 338 floods, 36,187, 399,414,484-485 groundwater salinisation, 483 human health, 399 human population, 488 migration, human, 365,488 National Water Management Plan, 719, 724 water resources, 477 See also Asia Bartonella bacilliformis, 587

Baseline/reference climate*, 35,143,147,158,782, 783

Basins*. See River basins

Batrachochytrium fungus, 233,586

Bats, 216, 405

Beaches, 324-326

in Australia/New Zealand region, 511, 520, 522, 528 closure for bacterial counts, 625 erosion, 92, 318, 511, 520,522, 696, 698 in North America, 625 recreational value, 523 in small islands, 696, 698 See also Coastal systems and low-lying areas Benthic communities*, 38,97,213,234,236,239 Biodiversity*, 37, 38,213,215,241-242,247-248 adaptation option limitations, 52, 543,559, 786 in Africa, 48, 242,435,439,449,449 in Asia, 49,471,478,485-487,491 in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 517-518, 518, 528

captive breeding and translocation, 247 in coastal systems, 335 conservation strategies, 560

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), 246, 247-248,

495,769 in deserts, 223-224

endemic species, 38, 54, 213, 216, 230, 241, 583, 786 in Europe, 52, 54, 543, 553-554, 558, 560, 565 in forests, 230 in grasslands/savannas, 226 in Latin America, 583, 586,590, 592, 596,603, 791 management, 769 in mountain ecosystems, 233 in North America, 630 in oceans, 95, 236,665 in polar regions, 665 projected impacts, 37, 38,242-245 in saltmarshes, 630 in small islands, 58, 689,700 vulnerability/risk, 38, 74,781, 788, 792,795-796 See also Ecosystems; Extinction; Range shifts; Vulnerability hotspots Biofuels*, 288,299,555,602,758 Biogeochemical cycles, 219-222,234, 789,792-793 Biological corridors. See Ecological corridors Biological systems, 26,28-31, 83 adaptive capacity, 782, 798 key vulnerabilities, 74, 788-789, 792, 798 linking climate-change causes with observed effects, 29 locations of significant changes in, 30 See also Ecosystems Biomass*, 56, 98, 214, 220 carbon dioxide and, 220,486 forest, 52 modelling, 240 phytoplankton, 56, 96 Biomass burning, 53,402,583,588,590 Biomes*, 38,214-215 biome changes, 38

biome shifts, 222, 237, 596 (See also Range shifts) cross-biome impacts, 237-239 See also Ecosystems; Sea-ice biome Biosphere*, 38,215-216,604 Biota*, 178,213,219-222,249

Biotechnology, 296,452,555-556 Biotic feedback, 219-222 Birds in Africa, 449

in Australia/New Zealand region, 512, 518, 521 avian malaria, 700

breeding/breeding areas, 100,103, 193, 518,622 desert species, 223-224 extinction risks, 103, 230 habitat losses, 554

migration, 100, 223-224, 230,239,449, 625, 666, 696 migration, infectious diseases and, 403 in North America, 622, 625 observed changes, 95-96, 100, 101 in polar regions, 666 seabirds, 95-96,521,527,696 West Nile virus and, 625 Bluetongue (BT), 555 Bogs*, 230,231,233 Boreal Asia. See Asia Boreal forests*, 217,228,276,485-486 Bottom-up assessment approaches, 136, 749 Bottom-up risk reduction approach, 820 Brazil freshwater resources, 175, 179, 185 natural ecosystems, 592 runoff into coastal waters, 324 sedimentation in reservoirs, 179 See also Latin America Breakwater*, 343 Bruntland Commission, 814, 819 Buildings. See Construction Butterflies in Australia/New Zealand region, 512 extinction of, 103 in North America, 622 observed changes, 103, 104 reproduction/diversity of, 103, 104

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