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to 0.27% increase in non-accidental mortality and an average 0.31 % increase in cardiovascular disease mortality.

to 0.27% increase in non-accidental mortality and an average 0.31 % increase in cardiovascular disease mortality.

England and Exceedance Statistical, based UKCIP 0.57to1.38°C Emissions held Over all time periods, Anderson et al.,

Wales days (ozone, on meteorological scenarios in 2020s; 0.89 constant. large decreases in days 2001

particulates, factors for high- 2020s, 2050s, to2.44°Cin with high particulates and

NOx) pollutant days 2080s 2050s; 1.13 to SO2, small decrease in

(temperature, 3.47°C in other pollutants except wind speed). 2080s ozone, which may increase.

compared with 1961-1990 baseline transport of pollutants plays a significant role in determining local to regional air quality (Holloway et al., 2003; Bergin et al., 2005), changing patterns of atmospheric circulation at the hemispheric to global level are likely to be just as important as regional patterns for future local air quality (Takemura et al., 2001; Langmann et al., 2003).

8.4.2 Vulnerable populations and regions

Human health vulnerability to climate change was assessed based on a range of scientific evidence, including the current burdens of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes, projected climate-change-related exposures, and trends in adaptive capacity. Box 8.5 describes trends in climate-change-related exposures of importance to human health. As highlighted in the following sections, particularly vulnerable populations and regions are more likely to suffer harm, have less ability to respond to stresses imposed by climate variability and change, and have exhibited limited progress in reducing current vulnerabilities. For example, all persons living in a flood plain are at risk during a flood, but those with lowered ability to escape floodwaters and their consequences (such as children and the infirm, or those living in sub-standard housing) are at higher risk.

8.4.2.1 Vulnerable urban populations

Urbanisation and climate change may work synergistically to increase disease burdens. Urban populations are growing faster in low-income than in high-income countries. The urban population increased from 220 million in 1900 to 732 million in 1950, and is estimated to have reached 3.2 billion in 2005 (UN, 2006b). In 2005, 74% of the population in more-developed regions was urban, compared with 43% in less-developed regions. Approximately 4.9 billion people are projected to be urban dwellers in 2030, about 60% of the global population, including 81% of the population in more-developed regions and 56% of the population in less-developed regions.

Urbanisation can positively influence population health; for example, by making it easier to provide safe water and improved sanitation. However, rapid and unplanned urbanisation is often

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