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baseline from 798 in 1990s to 2,793 in 2050s et al., 2001

and 3,519 in the 2080s under the medium-high scenario. Annual cold-

related deaths decrease from 80,313 in

1990s to 60,021 in 2050s and 51,243

in 2080s under the medium-high scenario.

Germany, Heat- and Thermo- ECHAM4-

Baden- cold-related physiological OPYC3 driven

Wuertemberg mortality model by SRES A1B

combined emissions with scenario. 2001-

conceptual 2055 compared model for with 1951-2001 adaptation

Population About a 20% increase in heat-related growth and mortality. Increase not likely to be aging and short- compensated by reductions in cold-term adaptation related mortality. and acclimatisation.

Koppe, 2005

Lisbon, Portugal

Heat-related Empirical-

mortality statistical model derived from observed summer mortality

PROMES and HadRM2 2020s, 2050s, 2080s

1.4 to 1.8°C in 2020s; 2.8 to 3.5°C in 2050s; 5.6 to 7.1°C in 2080s, compared with

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