Likelihood refers to a probabilistic assessment of some well-defined outcome having occurred or occurring in the future, and

may be based on quantitative analysis or an elicitation of expert views. In the Technical Summary, when authors evaluate

the likelihood of certain outcomes, the associated meanings are:


Likelihood of the occurrence/outcome

Virtually certain

>99% probability of occurrence

Very likely

90 to 99% probability


66 to 90% probability

About as likely as not

33 to 66% probability


10 to 33% probability

Very unlikely

1 to 10% probability

Exceptionally unlikely

<1% probability

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