Executive summary

In mid- to high-latitude regions, moderate warming benefits crop and pasture yields, but even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally dry and low-latitude regions (medium confidence).

Modelling results for a range of sites find that, in mid- to high-latitude regions, moderate to medium local increases in temperature (1-3°C), along with associated carbon dioxide (CO2) increase and rainfall changes, can have small beneficial impacts on crop yields. In low-latitude regions, even moderate temperature increases (1-2°C) are likely to have negative yield impacts for major cereals. Further warming has increasingly negative impacts in all regions (medium to low confidence) [Figure 5.2]. These results, on the whole, project the potential for global food production to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3°C, but above this range to decrease [5.4, 5.6].

The marginal increase in the number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change must be viewed within the overall large reductions due to socio-economic development (medium confidence).

Compared to 820 million undernourished today, the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios of socio-economic development without climate change project a reduction to 100-230 million (range is over A1, B1, B2 SRES scenarios) undernourished by 2080 (or 770 million under the A2 SRES scenario) (medium confidence). Scenarios with climate change project 100-380 million (range includes with and without CO2 effects and A1, B1, B2 SRES scenarios) undernourished by 2080 (740-1,300 million under A2) (low to medium confidence). Climate and socio-economic changes combine to alter the regional distribution of hunger, with large negative effects on sub-Saharan Africa (low to medium confidence) [Table 5.6].

Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events have significant consequences for food and forestry production, and food insecurity, in addition to impacts of projected mean climate (high confidence).

Recent studies indicate that climate change scenarios that include increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and flooding events reduce crop yields and livestock productivity beyond the impacts due to changes in mean variables alone, creating the possibility for surprises [5.4.1, 5.4.2]. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, and pest and pathogen outbreaks, with negative consequences for food, fibre and forestry (FFF) (high confidence) [5.4.1 to 5.4.5].

Simulations suggest rising relative benefits of adaptation with low to moderate warming (medium confidence), although adaptation stresses water and environmental resources as warming increases (low confidence).

There are multiple adaptation options that imply different costs, ranging from changing practices in place to changing locations of FFF activities [5.5.1]. Adaptation effectiveness varies from only marginally reducing negative impacts to changing a negative impact into a positive one. On average, in cereal cropping systems worldwide, adaptations such as changing varieties and planting times enable avoidance of a 10-15% reduction in yield corresponding to 1-2°C local temperature increase. The benefit from adapting tends to increase with the degree of climate change up to a point [Figure 5.2]. Adaptive capacity in low latitudes is exceeded at 3°C local temperature increase [Figure 5.2, Section 5.5.1]. Changes in policies and institutions will be needed to facilitate adaptation to climate change. Pressure to cultivate marginal land or to adopt unsustainable cultivation practices as yields drop may increase land degradation and resource use, and endanger biodiversity of both wild and domestic species [5.4.7]. Adaptation measures must be integrated with development strategies and programmes, country programmes and Poverty Reduction Strategies [5.7].

Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and artisanal fisherfolk will suffer complex, localised impacts of climate change (high confidence).

These groups, whose adaptive capacity is constrained, will experience the negative effects on yields of low-latitude crops, combined with a high vulnerability to extreme events. In the longer term, there will be additional negative impacts of other climate-related processes such as snow-pack decrease (especially in the Indo-Gangetic Plain), sea level rise, and spread in prevalence of human diseases affecting agricultural labour supply. [5.4.7]

Globally, commercial forestry productivity rises modestly with climate change in the short and medium term, with large regional variability around the global trend (medium confidence).

The change in the output of global forest products ranges from a modest increase to a slight decrease, although regional and local changes will be large []. Production increase will shift from low-latitude regions in the short-term, to high-latitude regions in the long-term [5.4.5].

Local extinctions of particular fish species are expected at edges of ranges (high confidence).

Regional changes in the distribution and productivity of particular fish species are expected due to continued warming and local extinctions will occur at the edges of ranges, particularly in freshwater and diadromous species (e.g., salmon, sturgeon). In some cases ranges and productivity will increase [5.4.6]. Emerging evidence suggests that meridional overturning circulation is slowing, with serious potential consequences for fisheries (medium confidence) [5.4.6].

Food and forestry trade is projected to increase in response to climate change, with increased dependence on food imports for most developing countries (medium to low confidence).

While the purchasing power for food is reinforced in the period to 2050 by declining real prices, it would be adversely affected by higher real prices for food from 2050 to 2080. [5.6.1,5.6.2].

Exports of temperate zone food products to tropical countries will rise [5.6.2], while the reverse may take place in forestry in the short-term. [5.4.5]

Experimental research on crop response to elevated CO2 confirms Third Assessment Report (TAR) findings (medium to high confidence). New Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) results suggest lower responses for forests (medium confidence).

Recent re-analyses of FACE studies indicate that, at 550 ppm atmospheric CO2 concentrations, yields increase under unstressed conditions by 10-25% for C3 crops, and by 0-10% for C4 crops (medium confidence), consistent with previous TAR estimates (medium confidence). Crop model simulations under elevated CO2 are consistent with these ranges (high confidence) [5.4.1]. Recent FACE results suggest no significant response for mature forest stands, and confirm enhanced growth for young tree stands []. Ozone exposure limits CO2 response in both crops and forests.

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