Europe

• The probability of an extreme winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal is expected to increase by up to a factor of five in parts of the UK and northern Europe by the 2080s with a doubling of CO2. ** D [12.3.1]

• By the 2070s, annual runoff is projected to increase in northern Europe, and decrease by up to 36% in southern Europe, with summer low flows reduced by up to 80% under IS92a. ** D [12.4.1, T12.2]

• The percentage of river-basin area in the severe water stress category (withdrawal/availability higher than 0.4) is expected to increase from 19% today to 34 to 36% by the 2070s. ** D [12.4.1]

• The number of additional people living in water-stressed watersheds in the seventeen western Europe countries is likely to increase from 16 to 44 million based on HadCM3 climate under the A2 and B1 emission scenarios, respectively, by the 2080s. ** D[12.4.1]

• Under A1FI scenarios, by the 2080s an additional 1.6 million people each year are expected to be affected by coastal flooding. **D [12.4.2]

• By the 2070s, hydropower potential for the whole of Europe is expected to decline by 6%, with strong regional variations from a 20 to 50% decrease in the Mediterranean region to a 15 to 30% increase in northern and eastern Europe. ** D [12.4.8]

• A large percentage of the European flora could become vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct by the end of the 21st century under a range of SRES scenarios. *** N [12.4.6]

• By 2050, crops are expected to show a northward expansion in area [12.4.7.1]. The greatest increases in climate-related crop yields are expected in northern Europe (e.g., wheat: +2 to +9% by 2020, +8 to +25% by 2050, +10 to +30% by 2080), while the largest reductions are expected in the south (e.g., wheat: +3 to +4% by 2020, -8 to +22% by 2050, -15 to +32% by 2080).*** C [12.4.7]

• Forested area is likely to increase in the north and decrease in the south. A redistribution of tree species is expected, and an elevation of the mountain tree line. Forest-fire risk is virtually certain to greatly increase in southern Europe. ** D [12.4.4]

• Most amphibian (45 to 69%) and reptile (61 to 89%) species are virtually certain to expand their range if dispersal were unlimited. However, if species were unable to disperse, then the range of most species (>97%) would become smaller, especially in the Iberian Peninsula and France. ** N [12.4.6]

• Small Alpine glaciers in different regions will disappear, while larger glaciers will suffer a volume reduction between 30% and 70% by 2050 under a range of emissions scenarios, with concomitant reductions in discharge in spring and summer. *** C [12.4.3]

• Decreased comfort of the Mediterranean region in the summer, and improved comfort in the north and west, could lead to a reduction in Mediterranean summer tourism and an increase in spring and autumn. ** D [12.4.9]

• Rapid shutdown of Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), although assigned a low probability, is likely to have widespread severe impacts in Europe, especially in western coastal areas. These include reductions in crop production with associated price increases, increased cold-related deaths, winter transport disruption, population migration to southern Europe and a shift in the economic centre of gravity. * N [12.6.2]

0 0

Post a comment