Current sensitivityvulnerability

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9.2.1 Current sensitivity to climate and weather

The climate of the continent is controlled by complex maritime and terrestrial interactions that produce a variety of climates across a range of regions, e.g., from the humid tropics to the hyper-arid Sahara (see Christensen et al., 2007). Climate exerts a significant control on the day-to-day economic development of Africa, particularly for the agricultural and water-resources sectors, at regional, local and household scales. Since the TAR, observed temperatures have indicated a greater warming trend since the 1960s. Although these trends seem to be consistent over the continent, the changes are not always uniform. For instance, decadal warming rates of 0.29°C in the African tropical forests (Malhi and Wright, 2004) and 0.1 to 0.3°C in South Africa (Kruger and Shongwe, 2004) have been observed. In South Africa and Ethiopia, minimum temperatures have increased slightly faster than maximum or mean temperatures (Conway et al., 2004; Kruger and Shongwe, 2004). Between 1961 and 2000, there was an increase in the number of warm spells over southern and western Africa, and a decrease in the number of extremely cold days (New et al., 2006). In eastern Africa, decreasing trends in temperature from weather stations located close to the coast or to major inland lakes have been observed (King'uyu et al., 2000).

For precipitation, the situation is more complicated. Rainfall exhibits notable spatial and temporal variability (e.g., Hulme et al., 2005). Interannual rainfall variability is large over most of Africa and, for some regions, multi-decadal variability is also substantial. In West Africa (4°-20°N; 20°W-40°E), a decline in annual rainfall has been observed since the end of the 1960s, with a decrease of 20 to 40% noted between the periods 19311960 and 1968-1990 (Nicholson et al., 2000; Chappell and Agnew, 2004; Dai et al., 2004). In the tropical rain-forest zone, declines in mean annual precipitation of around 4% in West Africa, 3% in North Congo and 2% in South Congo for the period 1960 to 1998 have been noted (e.g., Malhi and Wright, 2004). A 10% increase in annual rainfall along the Guinean coast during the last 30 years has, however, also been observed (Nicholson et al., 2000). In other regions, such as southern Africa, no long-term trend has been noted. Increased interannual variability has, however, been observed in the post-1970 period, with higher rainfall anomalies and more intense and widespread droughts reported (e.g., Richard et al., 2001; Fauchereau et al., 2003). In different parts of southern Africa (e.g., Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia), a significant increase in heavy rainfall events has also been observed (Usman and Reason, 2004), including evidence for changes in seasonality and weather extremes (Tadross et al., 2005a; New et al., 2006). During recent decades, eastern Africa has been experiencing an intensifying dipole rainfall pattern on the decadal time-scale. The dipole is characterised by increasing rainfall over the northern sector and declining amounts over the southern sector (Schreck and Semazzi, 2004).

Advances in our understanding of the complex mechanisms responsible for rainfall variability have been made (see Reason et al., 2005; Warren et al., 2006; Washington and Preston, 2006; Christensen et al., 2007). Understanding how possible climate-regime changes (e.g., in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events) may influence future climate variability is critical in Africa and requires further research. The drying of the Sahel region since the 1970s has, for example, been linked to a positive trend in equatorial Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature (SST), while ENSO is a significant influence on rainfall at interannual scales (Giannini et al., 2003; Christensen et al., 2007). In the same region, the intensity and localisation of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) also influence rainfall variability (Nicholson and Grist, 2003), as well as SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea (Vizy and Cook, 2001), and a relationship has also been identified between the warm Mediterranean Sea and abundant rainfall (Rowell, 2003). The influence of ENSO decadal variations has also been recognised in south-west Africa, influenced in part by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Nicholson and Selato, 2000). Changes in the ways these mechanisms influence regional weather patterns have been identified in southern Africa, where severe droughts have been linked to regional atmospheric-oceanic anomalies before the 1970s but to ENSO in more recent decades (Fauchereau et al., 2003).

Several studies also have highlighted the importance of terrestrial vegetation cover and the associated dynamic feedbacks on the physical climate (see Christensen et al., 2007). An increase in vegetation density, for example, has been suggested to result in a year-round cooling of 0.8°C in the

1 Note that several authors (e.g., Agoumi, 2003; Legesse et al., 2003; Conway, 2005, Thornton et al., 2006) caution against over-interpretation of results owing to the limitations of some of the projections and models used.

tropics, including tropical areas of Africa (Bounoua et al., 2000). Complex feedback mechanisms, mainly due to deforestation/land-cover change and changes in atmospheric dust loadings, also play a role in climate variability, particularly for drought persistence in the Sahel and its surrounding areas (Wang and Eltahir, 2000, 2002; Nicholson, 2001; Semazzi and Song, 2001; Prospero and Lamb, 2003; Zeng, 2003). The complexity of the interactions precludes 'simple interpretations'; for instance, the role of human-induced factors (e.g., migration), together with climate, can contribute to changes in vegetation in the Sahel that feed back into the overall physical system in complex ways (see, e.g., Eklundh and Olsson, 2003; Held et al., 2005; Herrmann et al., 2005; Olsson et al., 2005). Mineral dust is the largest cause of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of the planet and the key role of the Sahara has long been known. Better quantitative estimates of Saharan dust loadings and controls on emissions have now emerged from both satellite and field campaigns (e.g., Washington and Todd, 2005; Washington et al., 2006).

Finally, changes in extreme events, such as droughts and floods, have major implications for numerous Africans and require further attention. Droughts, notwithstanding current limitations in modelling capabilities and understanding of atmospheric system complexity, have attracted much interest over the past 30 years (AMCEN/UNEP, 2002), particularly with reference to impacts on both ecological systems and on society. Droughts have long contributed to human migration, cultural separation, population dislocation and the collapse of prehistoric and early historic societies (Pandey et al., 2003). One-third of the people in Africa live in drought-prone areas and are vulnerable to the impacts of droughts (World Water Forum, 2000). In Africa, for example, several million people regularly suffer impacts from droughts and floods. These impacts are often further exacerbated by health problems, particularly diarrhoea, cholera and malaria (Few et al., 2004). During the mid-1980s the economic losses from droughts totalled several hundred million U.S. dollars (Tarhule and Lamb, 2003). Droughts have mainly affected the Sahel, the Horn of Africa and southern Africa, particularly since the end of the 1960s (see Section 9.6.2; Richard et al., 2001; L'Hôte et al., 2002; Brooks, 2004; Christensen et al., 2007; Trenberth et al., 2007). Floods are also critical and impact on African development. Recurrent floods in some countries are linked, in some cases, with ENSO events. When such events occur, important economic and human losses result (e.g., in Mozambique - see Mirza, 2003; Obasi, 2005). Even countries located in dry areas (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Somalia) have not been flood-free (Kabat et al., 2002). Sensitivity/vulnerability of the water sector

The water sector is strongly influenced by, and sensitive to, changes in climate (including periods of prolonged climate variability). Evidence of interannual lake-level fluctuations and lake-level volatility, for example, has been observed since the 1960s, probably owing to periods of intense droughts followed by increases in rainfall and extreme rainfall events in late 1997 (e.g., in Lakes Tanganyika, Victoria and Turkana; see Riebeek, 2006). After the 1997 flood, Lake Victoria rose by about 1.7 m by 1998, Lake Tanganyika by about 2.1 m, and Lake Malawi by about 1.8 m, and very high river-flows were recorded in the Congo River at Kinshasha (Conway et al., 2005). The heavy rains and floods have been possibly attributed to large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions in the Indian Ocean (Mercier et al., 2002).

Changes in runoff and hydrology linked to climate through complex interactions also include those observed for southern Africa (Schulze et al., 2001; New, 2002), south-central Ethiopia (Legesse et al., 2003), Kenya and Tanzania (Eriksen et al., 2005) and the wider continent (de Wit and Stankiewicz, 2006; Nkomo et al., 2006). Fewer assessments of impacts and vulnerabilities with regard to groundwater and climate interactions are available, and yet these are clearly of great concern for those dependent on groundwater for their water supply.

About 25% of the contemporary African population experiences high water stress. About 69% of the population lives under conditions of relative water abundance (Vorosmarty et al., 2005). However, this relative abundance does not take into account other equally important factors such as access to clean drinking water and sanitation, which effectively reduces the quantity of freshwater available for human use. Despite the considerable improvements in access to freshwater in the 1990s, only about 62% of the African population had access to improved water supplies in 2000 (WHO/UNICEF, 2000; Vorosmarty, 2005). As illustrated in Section 9.2.2, issues that affect access to water, including water governance, also need to be considered in any discussion of vulnerability to water stress in Africa.

92.1.2 Sensitivity/vulnerability of the health sector

Assessments of health in Africa show that many communities are already impacted by health stresses that are coupled to several causes, including poor nutrition. These assessments repeatedly pinpoint the implications of the poor health status of many Africans for future development (Figure 9.1a-d) (e.g., Sachs and Malaney, 2002; Sachs, 2005). An estimated 700,000 to 2.7 million people die of malaria each year and 75% of those are African children (see; Patz and Olson, 2006). Incidences of malaria, including the recent resurgence in the highlands of East Africa, however, involve a range of multiple causal factors, including poor drug-treatment implementation, drug resistance, land-use change, and various socio-demographic factors including poverty (Githeko and Ndegwa, 2001; Patz et al., 2002; Abeku et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2004; Patz and Olson, 2006). The economic burden of malaria is estimated as an average annual reduction in economic growth of 1.3% for those African countries with the highest burden (Gallup and Sachs, 2001).

The resurgence of malaria and links to climate and/or other causal 'drivers' of change in the highlands of East Africa has recently attracted much attention and debate (e.g., Hay et al., 2002a; Pascual et al., 2006). There are indications, for example, that in areas that have two rainy seasons - March to June (MAMJ) and September to November (SON) - more rain is falling in SON than previously experienced in the northern sector of East Africa (Schreck and Semazzi, 2004). The SON period is relatively warm, and higher rainfall is likely to increase malaria transmission because of a reduction in larval development duration. The spread of malaria into new areas (for

Figure 9.1. Examples of current 'hotspots' or risk areas for Africa: (a) 'hunger'; (b) 'natural hazard-related disaster risks'; (c) regions prone to malaria derived from historical rainfall and temperature data (1950-1996); and (d) modelled distribution of districts where epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are likely to occur, based on epidemic experience, relative humidity (1961-1990) and land cover (adapted from IRI et al., 2006, p. 5; for further details see also Molesworth et al., 2003; Balk et al., 2005; Dilley et al., 2005; Center for International Earth Science Information Network, 2006; Connor et al., 2006).

Figure 9.1. Examples of current 'hotspots' or risk areas for Africa: (a) 'hunger'; (b) 'natural hazard-related disaster risks'; (c) regions prone to malaria derived from historical rainfall and temperature data (1950-1996); and (d) modelled distribution of districts where epidemics of meningococcal meningitis are likely to occur, based on epidemic experience, relative humidity (1961-1990) and land cover (adapted from IRI et al., 2006, p. 5; for further details see also Molesworth et al., 2003; Balk et al., 2005; Dilley et al., 2005; Center for International Earth Science Information Network, 2006; Connor et al., 2006).

example, observations of malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in the central highlands of Kenya, where no malaria vectors have previously been recorded) has also been documented (Chen et al., 2006). Recent work (e.g., Pascual et al., 2006) provides further new insights into the observed warming trends from the end of the 1970s onwards in four high-altitude sites in East Africa. Such trends may have significant biological implications for malaria vector populations.

New evidence regarding micro-climate change due to land-use changes, such as swamp reclamation for agricultural use and deforestation in the highlands of western Kenya, suggests that suitable conditions for the survival of Anopheles gambiae larvae are being created and therefore the risk of malaria is increasing (Munga et al., 2006). The average ambient temperature in the deforested areas of Kakamega in the western Kenyan highlands, for example, was 0.5°C higher than that of the forested area over a 10-month period (Afrane et al., 2005). Mosquito pupation rates and larval-to-pupal development have been observed to be significantly faster in farmland habitats than in swamp and forest habitats (Munga et al., 2006). Floods can also trigger malaria epidemics in arid and semi-arid areas (e.g., Thomson et al., 2006).

Other diseases are also important to consider with respect to climate variability and change, as links between variations in climate and other diseases, such as cholera and meningitis, have also been observed. About 162 million people in Africa live in areas with a risk of meningitis (Molesworth et al., 2003; Figure 9.1d). While factors that predispose populations to meningococcal meningitis are still poorly understood, dryness, very low humidity and dusty conditions are factors that need to be taken into account. A recent study, for example, has demonstrated that wind speeds in the first two weeks of February explained 85% of the variation in the number of meningitis cases (Sultan et al., 2005).

9.2.13 Sensitivity/vulnerability of the agricultural sector

The agricultural sector is a critical mainstay of local livelihoods and national GDP in some countries in Africa (Mendelsohn et al., 2000a, b; Devereux and Maxwell, 2001). The contribution of agriculture to GDP varies across countries but assessments suggest an average contribution of 21% (ranging from 10 to 70%) of GDP (Mendelsohn et al., 2000b). This sector is particularly sensitive to climate, including periods of climate variability (e.g., ENSO and extended dry spells; see Usman and Reason, 2004). In many parts of Africa, farmers and pastoralists also have to contend with other extreme natural-resource challenges and constraints such as poor soil fertility, pests, crop diseases, and a lack of access to inputs and improved seeds. These challenges are usually aggravated by periods of prolonged droughts and/or floods and are often particularly severe during El Niño events (Mendelsohn et al., 2000a, b; Biggs et al., 2004; International Institute of Rural Reconstruction, 2004; Vogel, 2005; Stige et al., 2006). Sensitivity/vulnerability of ecosystems

Ecosystems are critical in Africa, contributing significantly to biodiversity and human well-being (Biggs et al., 2004; Muriuki et al., 2005). The rich biodiversity in Africa, which occurs principally outside formally conserved areas, is under threat from climate variability and change and other stresses (see Chapter 4, Section 4.2). Africa's social and economic development is constrained by climate change, habitat loss, over-harvesting of selected species, the spread of alien species, and activities such as hunting and deforestation, which threaten to undermine the integrity of the continent's rich but fragile ecosystems (UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002; Thomas et al., 2004).

Approximately half of the sub-humid and semi-arid parts of the southern African region are at moderate to high risk of desertification (e.g., Reich et al., 2001; Biggs et al., 2004). In West Africa, the long-term decline in rainfall from the 1970s to the 1990s caused a 25-35 km southward shift of the Sahelian, Sudanese and Guinean ecological zones in the second half of the 20th century (Gonzalez, 2001). This has resulted in a loss of grassland and acacia, the loss of flora/fauna, and shifting sanddunes in the Sahel (ECF and Potsdam Institute, 2004).

The 1997/1998 coral bleaching episode observed in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea was coupled to a strong ENSO. In the western Indian Ocean region, a 30% loss of corals resulted in reduced tourism in Mombasa and Zanzibar, and caused financial losses of about US$12-18 million (Payet and Obura,

2004). Coral reefs are also exposed to other local anthropogenic threats, including sedimentation, pollution and over-fishing, particularly when they are close to important human settlements such as towns and tourist resorts (Nelleman and Corcoran, 2006). Recent outbreaks of the 'crown-of-thorns' starfish have occurred in Egypt, Djibouti and western Somalia, along with some local bleaching (Kotb et al., 2004).

Observed changes in ecosystems are not solely attributable to climate. Additional factors, such as fire, invasive species and land-use change, interact and also produce change in several African locations (Muriuki et al., 2005). Sensitive mountain environments (e.g., Mt. Kilimanjaro, Mt. Ruwenzori) demonstrate the complex interlinkages between various atmospheric processes including solar radiation micro-scale processes, glacier-climate interactions, and the role of vegetation changes and climate interactions (Kaser et al., 2004). For example, the drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century, and the drying conditions that then occurred, have been used to explain some of the observed glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro (Kaser et al., 2004). Ecosystem change, also induced by complex land-use/climate interactions, including the migration of species and the interaction with fire (e.g., Hemp,

2005), produces a number of feedbacks or 'knock-on' impacts. Changes in the range of plant and animal species, for example, are already occurring because of forest fires on Kilimanjaro, and may place additional pressure on ecosystem services (Agrawala, 2005). The loss of 'cloud forests' through fire since 1976 has resulted in an estimated 25% annual reduction in 'fog water' (the equivalent of the annual drinking water demand of 1 million people living on Kilimanjaro) and is another critical impact in this region (see Chapter 4, Section 4.2; Box 9.1; Agrawala, 2005; Hemp, 2005). Sensitivity/vulnerability of settlements and infrastructure

Impacts on settlements and infrastructure are well recorded for recent extreme climate events (e.g., the 2000 flooding event

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