C21 Presentday changes in coral reefs

C2.1.1 Observed changes in coral reefs (Chapter 1, Section

Concerns about the impacts of climate change on coral reefs centre on the effects of the recent trends in increasing acidity (via increasing CO2), storm intensity, and sea surface temperatures (see Bindoff et al., 2007, Section; Trenberth et al., 2007, Sections 3.8.3 and 3.2.2).

Decreasing pH (see C2.2.1) leads to a decreased aragonite saturation state, one of the main physicochemical determinants of coral calcification (Kleypas et al., 1999). Although laboratory experiments have demonstrated a link between aragonite saturation state and coral growth (Langdon et al., 2000; Ohde and Hossain, 2004), there are currently no data relating altered coral growth in situ to increasing acidity.

Storms damage coral directly through wave action and indirectly through light attenuation by suspended sediment and abrasion by sediment and broken corals. Most studies relate to individual storm events, but a meta-analysis of data from 1977 to 2001 showed that coral cover on Caribbean reefs decreased by 17% on average in the year following a hurricane, with no evidence of recovery for at least 8 years post-impact (Gardner et al., 2005). Stronger hurricanes caused more coral loss, but the second of two successive hurricanes caused little additional damage, suggesting a greater future effect from increasing hurricane intensity rather than from increasing frequency (Gardner et al., 2005).

There is now extensive evidence of a link between coral bleaching - a whitening of corals as a result of the expulsion of symbiotic zooxanthellae (see C2.1.2) - and sea surface temperature anomalies (McWilliams et al., 2005). Bleaching usually occurs when temperatures exceed a 'threshold' of about 0.8-1°C above mean summer maximum levels for at least 4 weeks (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Regional-scale bleaching events have increased in frequency since the 1980s (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). In 1998, the largest bleaching event to date is estimated to have killed 16% of the world's corals, primarily in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean (Wilkinson, 2004). On many reefs, this mortality has led to a loss of structural complexity and shifts in reef fish species composition (Bellwood et al., 2006; Garpe et al., 2006; Graham et al., 2006). Corals that recover from bleaching suffer temporary reductions in growth and reproductive capacity (Mendes and Woodley, 2002), while the recovery of reefs following mortality tends to be dominated by fast-growing and bleaching-resistant coral genera (Arthur et al., 2005).

While there is increasing evidence for climate change impacts on coral reefs, disentangling the impacts of climate-related stresses from other stresses (e.g., over-fishing and pollution; Hughes et al., 2003) is difficult. In addition, inter-decadal variation in pH (Pelejero et al., 2005), storm activity (Goldenberg et al., 2001) and sea surface temperatures (Mestas-Nunez and Miller, 2006) linked, for example, to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, make it more complicated to discern the effect of anthropogenic climate change from natural modes of variability. An analysis of bleaching in the Caribbean indicates that 70% of the variance in geographic extent of bleaching between 1983 and 2000 could be attributed to variation in ENSO and atmospheric dust (Gill et al., 2006).

C2.1.2 Environmental thresholds and observed coral bleaching (Chapter 6, Box 6.1)

Coral bleaching, due to the loss of symbiotic algae and/or their pigments, has been observed on many reefs since the early 1980s. It may have previously occurred, but has gone unrecorded. Slight paling occurs naturally in response to seasonal increases in sea surface temperature (SST) and solar radiation. Corals bleach white in response to anomalously high SST (~1°C above average seasonal maxima, often combined with high solar radiation). Whereas some corals recover their natural colour when environmental conditions ameliorate, their growth rate and reproductive ability may be significantly reduced for a substantial period. If bleaching is prolonged, or if SST exceeds 2°C above average seasonal maxima, corals die. Branching species appear more susceptible than massive corals (Douglas, 2003).

Major bleaching events were observed in 1982-1983, 19871988 and 1994-1995 (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Particularly severe bleaching occurred in 1998 (Figure C2.1), associated with pronounced El Niño events in one of the hottest years on record (Lough, 2000; Bruno et al., 2001). Since 1998 there have been several extensive bleaching events. For example, in 2002 bleaching occurred on much of the Great Barrier Reef (Berkelmans et al., 2004; see C2.2.3) and elsewhere. Reefs in the eastern Caribbean experienced a massive bleaching event in late 2005, another of the hottest years on record. On many Caribbean reefs, bleaching exceeded that of 1998 in both extent and mortality (Figure C2.1), and reefs are in decline as a result of the synergistic effects of multiple stresses (Gardner et al., 2005; McWilliams et al., 2005; see C2.3.1). There is considerable variability in coral susceptibility and recovery to elevated SST in both time and space, and in the incidence of mortality (Webster et al., 1999; Wilkinson, 2002; Obura, 2005).

Global climate model results imply that thermal thresholds will be exceeded more frequently, with the consequence that bleaching will recur more often than reefs can sustain (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999, 2004; Donner et al., 2005), perhaps almost annually on some reefs in the next few decades (Sheppard, 2003; Hoegh-Guldberg, 2005). If the threshold remains unchanged, more frequent bleaching and mortality seems inevitable (see

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