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C3 plants*, 224,225,483,520

carbon dioxide effects on, 40, 282 C4 plants*, 224,225,483,518,520 carbon dioxide effects on, 40, 282 switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), 288 Calcareous organisms*, 38,222,234,235 See also Aragonite; Ocean acidification Calcite*, 222 Campylobacter, 400 Canada adaptation, 722 agriculture, 623-624, 631 cities, climate change impacts in, 633 coast erosion, 92

Confederation Bridge, 65, 719, 724 energy use/demand, 626, 634-635 forest-dependent communities, 736-737 forest fires, 107, 217, 621, 623, 631

forestry, 218,624, 630, 631

freshwater resources, 627-629

Hudson Bay, 92, 669

human health, 395,410,415,416

indigenous peoples, 415,416,728, 730-731

infrastructure, 726

Okanagan, costs of climate change in, 195 phenology, 283, 621, 622 precipitation, 621, 622 temperature, 620, 621 tourism and recreation, 626,634 transportation, 366, 726 wildlife, 622 See also North America Capacity building*, 69,72,797

in Australia/New Zealand region, 514 food, fibre and forest products, 296 in small islands, 708-709, 710 Carbon carbon-climate interactions, 792-793, 795 dissolved organic (DOC), 234, 239, 665 pools, 283

social cost of, 65, 756, 771, 813, 821-824 storage (See Carbon sequestration*; Carbon sinks) World Bank funds for, 753 Carbon cycle*, 220-222,792-793,795 large-scale studies, 604

net carbon exchange in terrestrial ecosystems, 38, 213, 222 projections/vulnerability, 38, 792-793 Carbon dioxide (CO2)*

draw-down by oceans, 658, 662

effects on plant growth, 40, 54, 220, 225,240, 276,

282-283, 285-287, 290, 300, 824 effects on soil water balance, 225 free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, 40, 276, 282, 300

freshwater resources and, 184-185, 187

pollen production and, 632

projected global-scale impacts, 824,825

projected levels in 2050,825

projected levels in 2100,213

scenarios, 34-35, 152-153, 158-160, 323, 799-802

stabilisation, crop production and, 284

stabilisation, global temperature response and, 158-159

stabilisation scenarios, 35, 77, 799-802

stabilisation targets, 799-802

See also Carbon dioxide fertilisation; Greenhouse gases (GHGs)

Carbon dioxide fertilisation*, 214,220-221,223,228,241

effects on food production, 54, 479-480 Carbon flux, 38,213,222,552,792,795

in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, 662,665, 667-668 in Southern Ocean, 662 Carbon sequestration*, 213,219-222,241 adaptation and mitigation decisions, 752, 758 by forests, 106,214, 227-228, 552 by oceans, 234 tipping points for, 241

See also Carbon sinks Carbon sinks, 220,237,792-793,795 in the Arctic, 662, 665,667 global carbon stores, 214 potential reversal of, 38,213, 222, 792 vulnerability of, 283 Carbon stocks, 213,214,220-221,227-228,552,792-793 Carbonate ion, 234 Cardio-respiratory diseases, 43,418 Cardiovascular diseases, 394,402,487 Caribbean region adaptation, 728, 732 climate, 691-692

coral reefs, 94,235,242, 321, 330 dengue fever, 701 hurricanes, 54, 692, 701

Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), 690, 703

respiratory disease, 109 sea-level rise, 692 tourism, 336 urban indicators, 363 See also Small islands Caribou, 666, 668

Carrion's disease (Bartonella bacilliformis), 587 Catchments*, 89,90,177,184,188 in Asia, 483

in Australia/New Zealand region, 516, 517,524, 525, 528 in Europe, 550, 553 in Latin America, 593 modelling, 90, 181, 182, 201-202 in polar regions, 663 in small islands, 697,708 See also River basins Cattle. See Livestock

Cattle tick (Boophilus microplus), 283,520 CCIAV (Climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability) assessment, 31-35,133-171 approaches, 135-141

conclusions and future directions, 161-162 coping ranges, 142-143 data needs for, 144 frameworks for, 136

future characterisations, 32-35, 135, 144-161 impact assessment, 136-137 integrated assessment, 136,137, 139 methods, 31-35,133-171 non-climate factors, 135 policy-based approach, 136 risk management, 135, 139-141 stakeholder involvement, 31-32, 135, 141-142 top-down vs. bottom-up approaches, 136 uncertainty management, 141 uncertainty/risk communication, 143-144 vulnerability assessment, 136,137, 138-139 See also Adaptation assessment; specific approaches CDM. See Clean Development Mechanism* Central America. See Latin America

Cereal grains. See Grain crops Cerebral infarction/ischemia, 487 Chacaltaya glacier, Bolivia, 87 Chagas' disease*, 601 Child mortality, 394,401 China crop yields, projected, 297

deltas and coastal ecosystems, 64,484-485,493,496 floods, 398,484-485 groundwater salinisation, 483 heat watch and warning systems, 491 Huanghe River, 179, 319, 326,485 human health, 398,405,414,487 migration, human, 488 Qinghai-Tibet Railway, 724 schistosomiasis in, 405 water demand, 284 water level in deltas, 484 See also Asia Cholera*, 398,401,439,478,599,701 in Asia, 50,471,478,481, 487, 791 Ciguatera fish poisoning, 400,449,701 Cities. See Urban settlements

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)*, 248,752,753 Climate*

direct and indirect effects of, 362-363, 374 linkages with sustainable development, 818 See also Baseline/reference climate; Climate change; Climate variability; Detection and attribution

Climate change*

definition, 27

direct and indirect drivers of, 816, 817 direct and indirect effects of, 359, 364, 374 as driver of ecosystem changes, 817 global cost estimates, 727

impacts (See Impacts. See also CCIAV assessment) multiple cause and stress context, 43,75, 359 observed changes, 79-131 (See also specific systems and regions) perspectives on, 75-76,811-841 positive and negative impacts of, 782 'reasons for concern,' 73-76,781, 795-797, 800 regional (See Regional climate change) research needs, 77-78 reversible vs. irreversible, 785 summary of main findings, 25 sustainability and, 75-76, 811-841 vulnerabilities and risk from, 779-810 See also Anthropogenic climate change; Baseline/reference climate; Detection and attribution; Global warming; specific regions and ecosystems Climate change commitment*, 748, 827 Climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessment. See CCIAV assessment Climate change scenarios. See Scenarios; SRES scenarios Climate envelope modelling, 239-240,241 Climate extremes. See Extreme weather events; specific climate conditions

Climate forecasting, 53,416,721,727-728 Climate impacts. See Impacts, of climate change Climate impact assessment. See Impact assessment Climate models*, 29, 32-33,139,148 AOGCMs, 32-33,149-151 climate envelope modelling, 239-240, 241 Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, 337 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity, 139 ensemble models, 77, 800 perturbed parameter ensemble, 800 See also Future characterisations Climate policy, 31,766-769

adaptation/mitigation inter-relationships in, 747,760-763

implementation, 747, 766-769

introduction, 748-750

mainstreaming, 31, 768, 818

methods in vulnerability assessment, 800

national, sub-national and local scales, 769

regional scale, 767-769

sustainable development and, 747, 751, 765-766 See also Adaptation; Adaptation and mitigation interrelationships; Mitigation

Climate prediction* ENSO-based, 591

indigenous knowledge in weather forecasting, 456-457 in Latin America, 53, 591-592, 604 limits on usefulness, 604 seasonal climate forecasting, 416, 721,727-728 Climate projection*, 31-35,133-171

See also Scenarios; SRES scenarios Climate scenarios*, 148-152,155

See also Scenarios; SRES scenarios Climate sensitivity*, 161, 758, 800-801 uncertainties in, 799 See also Sensitivity; specific regions

Climate system*

dangerous anthropogenic interference with, 781, 782, 784,

798, 799,801-802,804 global, impacts of changes in polar regions, 655, 660, 661-662,667-668 Climate thresholds*, 37,76,781,784-785, 802-803 systemic thresholds, 784, 802 See also Thresholds Climate variability*, 38, 84, 86,107 adaptation to, 111

in Africa, 435,436-437,439,448,454

in Asia, 471,472-478,475,479

in Australia/New Zealand region, 510-512

biodiversity and, 103

in coastal systems, 92, 93

in Europe, 547,550, 555

impacts on disturbance regimes, 38

in Latin America, 54, 583, 586, 591

modes of, 84, 794-795

in North America, 55, 626

in polar regions, 660, 671

projections of, 152

in small islands, 693, 708, 710 sustainable development and, 384 See also El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Extreme weather events; Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); Modes of climate variability; North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); Northern Annular Mode; Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); Southern Annular Mode Cloud forests, 48,230,244,439,596,700 CO2 fertilisation. See Carbon dioxide fertilisation Coastal squeeze*, 623,630

Coastal systems and low-lying areas, 40-41,45-46,315-356 adaptation, 40-41, 317, 339-345,491, 559, 719, 795 adaptive capacity, 317, 318-322, 324-336, 344, 786 agriculture, forestry and fisheries, 333 assumptions about future trends, 322-324 beaches, rocky shorelines and cliffed coasts, 324-326 biodiversity, 335

climate and sea-level scenarios, 322-324

climate change factors, 318

climate drivers, 323

coastal processes and zones, 92-94

coral reefs, 317, 320, 321-322, 330

costs and socio-economic aspects, 40, 317, 336-339

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 318-322

deltas, 40,41, 317, 326-328,327, 332,484

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, 319, 623

erosion, 81,92, 93, 317, 320, 324-326, 328, 338,477,484,

558, 630 estuaries and lagoons, 328 exposure, 362, 372

external terrestrial and marine influences, 319-320

extreme events, lessons from, 340

extreme water level simulations, 325

freshwater resources, 179, 317, 331

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 40-41,45-46, 324-336,

374,795,813,828 geomorphology, 92 as high-risk areas, 359, 364 human health and, 43, 334-335,407,414,471 human impacts of climate change, 330-336 human population in, 40, 317, 318, 319, 323, 327, 346,

364,372,399,414,630 human settlements, infrastructure and migration, 81,331,

333-334,359,791 human utilisation/development of, 40, 317, 319, 326 infrastructure, 372, 619,690

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), 340-341, 491

interaction of natural and human sub-systems, 318 introduction, 318

inundation, 40, 64, 317, 320, 325, 333,484, 813 mangroves, saltmarshes and sea grasses, 92, 328-330 multiple stresses, 40, 317, 336 natural systems, 318-319, 324-330 observed changes, 28,40, 92-94,115, 320 recreation and tourism, 320, 335-336 regional differences, 331, 336

sea-level rise and, 35,40,41, 81, 92, 317, 322-324,325,

326, 336, 339, 346, 372,414, 520, 630 socio-economic aspects, 317, 322, 323, 330-339, 331 sustainable development, 345 thermal stratification, 235 thresholds, 320, 321-322 uncertainties and research priorities, 345-347 vulnerabilities, risks and hotspots, 40-41, 317, 318-322,

336,337, 399,796 water management, 759 wetlands, 40, 92, 93, 317, 328-330 See also specific regions and countries Coccolithophores*, 222,658 Coconuts, 333,450 Cod,669,670

Coffee growing/production, 597,731

Cold-related mortality, 51,108, 393,407,408,411,418,557

Cold-waves, 375, 397-398

Colorado River basin, 193-194,197,627,634

Columbia River basin, 627,628,633, 818-819

Commitment to warming, 827

Committed to extinction*, 241,242-245,553,630,792

See also Ecosystems; Extinction; Extirpation Communicable diseases*. See Infectious diseases Communication of uncertainty/risk, 143-144, 380,735 Confederation Bridge, Canada, 65,719,724 Confidence*, 27,141,786

See also Uncertainty; specific topics and executive summaries

Conflicts and war, 442-443,447,451,459 Conservation, 38

in Asia, 495 of coral reefs, 485 in Europe, 52, 544, 559, 560 in Latin America, 592,602 of mangrove forests, 492 Construction, 367, 379, 635

See also Infrastructure Context, 359, 635

human systems, 361, 366, 374 multi-stress/multi-cause, 43, 75 Control run*, 187

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), 246,247-248, 495,769

Convention on International Trade of Endangered Fauna and Flora (CITES), 495 Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), 495 Copepods, 96 Coping ranges, 142-143

See also Adaptation; Vulnerability Coral atolls, 40,697-698, 705, 707

See also Small islands Coral bleaching*, 216,235, 317,321-322, 330,512,518,527 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, 319,321, 330, 439

observed changes, 94, 235, 439, 477 projected changes, 40, 57-58, 800 recovery time from, 527

sea surface temperature and, 94,235, 321-322 thresholds, 485 Coral reefs*, 235, 320,321-322, 330,512 adaptation potential, 235 in Asia, 49,471,472,477,485,486 'crown-of-thorns' starfish, 439 ecosystems, 94, 214, 234,235,292,477-478 endangerment status, 235 Great Barrier Reef, 242, 320, 509,512, 518, 527 habitat and processes, 235 in Latin America, 590 non-climate-change threats, 699 observed changes, 28, 94,235,439,477,512, 816 ocean acidification and, 38,94,235, 793 pathogens, 590

projected changes, 40, 57-58,471,485, 518, 792 vulnerability/risk, 40, 216,235,240, 518, 730 white band disease (WBD), 590 See also Coral bleaching Corals*, 213,214,235 calcification of, 235 cold-water, 213, 234, 236, 658, 793 ocean acidification and, 213, 234, 658 vulnerability/risk, 235, 240 See also Coral bleaching; Coral reefs Cost-benefit analyses (CBAs), 800, 802-803

in adaptation and mitigation, 747,754, 756, 757 Cost-effectiveness analyses (CBEs), 755,800, 803 COST725 project, 112,113 Costs, 64-65,78

adaptation (See Adaptation costs and benefits) aggregate, global, 64-65

of climate change, 65, 756,771, 813, 821-824, 822 coastal systems, adaptation, 40, 317, 336-339, 345 computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, 337 cost estimates, 337, 359 ecosystem goods and services, 245-246 extreme weather events, Asia, 489

extreme weather events, Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 511,513

extreme weather events, Europe, 362

extreme weather events, North America, 55, 332, 338,369,

619,621,626 food, fibre and forest products, 296-297, 301 freshwater resources/management, 190-196 human health, 415 human vs. monetary, 365

industry, settlement and society, 362, 365, 376-379 methods and tools for characterising, 337 mitigation costs and benefits, 749, 756-757, 802 post-event impacts, 338 schematic overview of inter-relationships, 748 social cost of carbon, 65, 756, 771, 813, 821-824 tourism losses, 626 Crab, 669

Crop diversification, 624 Crop yields, 38,282-285, 300,413,791 in Africa, 48,297,435,448

in Asia, 49, 106,297,471,479-481

in Australia/New Zealand region, 518, 519

carbon dioxide effects on, 38,40,54, 276, 282-283, 284,

300,824 climate extremes and, 284 damage avoidance, 295 in Europe, 548-549, 554-555 in Latin America, 597 in North America, 624, 631 ozone effects, 278

temperature and, 49, 275, 282-283, 284-285,286, 295,

300, 301 See also Agriculture; Crops Crops, 275,276,283-285

adaptation strategies, 70, 294-295,452, 721, 725-726 in Australia/New Zealand region, 518-519 bioenergy/biofuels, 288, 544, 555, 635, 758 biotechnology and, 296

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, 277

in Europe, 52, 554-555

extreme events and, 277, 277,278

genetic modification, 296

globalisation and, 730, 731

industrial, 288

mid- to high-latitude, 275, 276,286, 296, 297, 300 in North America, 624, 635, 636 observed changes, 104-106 pests (See Insect pests) rain-red, 48, 50,280,448,480 in small islands, 700 threshold responses, 277 varieties and planting times, 295,452, 721, 725 See also Agriculture; Crop yields; Grain crops; specific crops

'Crown-of-thorns' starfish, 439 Crustacea, 291 Cryosphere*

future impacts, 184, 551, 558, 565 global impacts of changes in, 56-57, 655, 660, 661-662, 667-668

observed changes, 28, 81, 85-90,115 observed trends, 177, 543, 546

See also Polar regions; specific components of cryosphere Cryptogams*, 230

Cryptosporidium, 189, 398,487, 671, 701

Culex mosquito, 625

Culicoides imicola, 555

Cutaneous leishmaniasis, 403,587,599

Cyclones. See Extra-tropical cyclones; Tropical cyclones

Damages avoided, 77-78,295,754-760,798-803 Dams, 181,493,768-769

impact on river sediments, 317, 319, 493 Dangerous anthropogenic interference, 781,782,784,798, 799,804

temperature threshold for, 801-802 See also Vulnerability assessment

Deaths. See Mortality Decision analysis, 31,752-753 Decision-making, 735-736,750,752-754

in adaptation and mitigation, 72,747, 750, 752-760, 832-836

nature of decision problem, 752-753 participatory processes, 813, 832-834 support mechanisms, 813, 836 Deer Island sewage facility, U.S., 724 Deforestation*, 216,229-230,281,299,757 in Africa, 442

in Latin America, 53, 583,590, 594-595,604, 606 Deltas, 40,41, 317, 326-328,327,332,484

See also Ganges-Brahmaputra delta; Megadeltas Dengue fever*, 393,403-404,408,410 in Asia, 478,487

in Australia/New Zealand region, 408,410, 524 climate-related factors and, 478 in Latin America, 404, 586, 591, 593, 599 in small islands, 689, 701 Dermatosis, 487

Desalination, 181,525,559,689,697,759 Desertification*, 767 in Africa, 439,442 in Asia, 472, 486 Deserts*, 222-224, 472

amelioration of, 223, 237,238 carbon stocks, 214 Detection and attribution*, 28,29,79-131,781 confidence, 85 definitions/terminology, 83 joint attribution, 83, 112-116

larger-scale aggregation and attribution, 82, 112-116 linking climate-change causes with observed effects, 29 methods, 83-85

regions and systems, observed changes in, 85-116

research needs, 78, 117

summary, 81-82

synthesis of studies, 114-116

See also Climate change; Joint attribution; Observed changes and responses Developed countries adaptation deficits/challenges, 43, 55, 69, 397 energy use, 827

sea-level rise, costs of, 339, 339 vulnerabilities, 781, 792 water quality problems, 179 See also specific countries Developing countries adaptive capacity, 40

aggregate impacts, equity issues and, 821

agricultural adaptation, 726

agriculture, 279,281-282

coastal area impacts/costs, 40, 317, 331, 336, 339

energy use, 827

human health impacts, 43

impacts/vulnerabilities in, 781, 784,796

natural disaster-related deaths in, 373

per capita CO2 emissions in, 826 sea-level rise, costs of, 339, 339 water quality problems, 179, 189 See also specific countries Development, 75-76

adaptive capacity and, 276, 279,620, 719, 755,767 CDM (Clean Development Mechanism), 248, 752,753 climate-related vulnerabilities and, 813 as driver of water use, 182 environmental quality and, 76, 819-820, 835 equity issues, 494-495, 813, 826-827 linkages with adaptive capacity, 817-819 mainstreaming adaptation and, 832, 832-836 participatory processes, 813, 832-834 paths, 75,494-495, 764-766, 771, 817-818 sustainable (See Sustainable development) syndromes/categories, 819

See also Sustainable development; specific regions DGVMs. See Dynamic Global Vegetation Models Diadromous* fish species, 39,275,291, 300 Dialogue on Water and Climate (DWC), 197,197 Diarrhoeal diseases, 43,189, 393,401,410 in Africa, 437,441 in Asia, 50,471,478,481,487 in Australia/New Zealand region, 524 flood-related, 399

morbidity/mortality from, 50,471,478,481 projections, 407,418 in small islands, 689,701 water quality and, 335 Dimethyl sulphide (DMS), 222 Disasters, 109-111,393

in Africa, 442-443,447,451,459

costs in Australia/New Zealand region, 511

costs in North America, 626

disaster risk management/reduction, 813, 820-821

gender and, 398

mental disorders and, 399

observed changes, 109-111

preparedness programs, 492

See also Extreme weather events; specific disasters Discount rate*, 65, 813, 822 Diseases, 43,393-394,403-405,418 air quality and, 401-402 cold-related, 671 monitoring of, 43,491

mosquito-borne, 400, 524, 625 (See also Malaria) non-communicable, 394 observed changes, 82, 107-109 rodent-borne, 404

tick-borne (See Tick-borne diseases) vector-borne (See Vector-borne diseases) water and, 400-401

water-borne (See Water-borne diseases) zoonotic, 625, 671

See also Human health; Infectious diseases; specific diseases

Disturbance regimes*, 37,213,214-215,216

in Africa, 439 climate variability and, 38 in North America, 56, 619, 620, 623, 631 projected changed, 38, 792 See also Fires; Insects Downscaling*, 135,148,250-251,594 Drosophila melanogaster, 104,512 Droughts*, 175,186-187 adaptation, 70, 722 in Africa, 237,278, 287,437, 734 in Asia, 473,476

in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 510-511,511, 515,519

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 177-178 extreme events, 187,188, 789 human health impacts, 399-400 in Latin America, 400, 586 in North America, 619,622, 623, 624,625, 626 observed changes, 89, 90,177 projected impacts and interactions, 42,51, 375, 789 in small islands, 698 types of, 186-187 vulnerability/risk, 35, 74, 789 See also Extreme weather events Dust-related diseases/health effects, 108,109,400,402,439 Dykes*,457,548,559,640

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)*, 219,220, 222, 240, 241

Early warning systems, 53,417,491,544,563,591,604

See also Extreme weather events; Heatwaves Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity, 139 East Timor (Timor Lest), 706 Ecological communities*, 103,104,214

See also Ecosystems Ecological corridors*, 54,525,560,583,592,769 Ecological surprises, 38, 242 Economies in Africa, 440-441,454 in Europe, 52-53, 543-544, 545 in Latin America, 595-596 in North America, 627

in polar regions, 56,655,661,665-666,668,676 of resource-dependent communities, 625 in small islands, 57, 695,698, 701-702 See also Market impacts; Socio-economic impacts; specific regions

Ecophysiological process*, 240 Ecosystem approach*, 246-248 Ecosystem services*, 213, 215, 245-246 Ecosystems*, 37-38,44-45,211-272

adaption and acclimation, 38, 213, 246-248 adaptive capacity, 52, 658-660 areal extent, 214

assumptions about future trends, 218-219 costs/valuation of goods and services, 245-246 cross-biome impacts, 237-239

current sensitivities, 213, 215-218

drivers of change, 213,215-218, 219,817

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 37-38, 213-214,

219-245,792,795-796 goods and services, 213, 215, 245-246 impacts, global synthesis of, 213-214, 239-245 introduction, 214-215 key issues, 215 management, 246-248 modelling, 218-219, 239-240, 250-251 multiple stresses, 213, 215, 241,246-247 projected impacts, 37-38,44-45, 213,238,240,242-245, 828

resilience, exceedence projections, 37 scales and time lags, 214, 215, 547 sustainable development, 248-249 thresholds, 37, 215, 785, 802 uncertainties and research priorities, 249-250 vulnerability/risk, 37-38,240, 788-789, 792, 795-796 See also Biodiversity; Extinction; Extirpation; specific ecosystems and regions Ecotone*, 216,228,233,237 Egypt, 339,445,448,452,485 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)* agriculture effects, 277 in Asia, 473,475,477 in Australia/New Zealand region, 510, 521 coral bleaching and, 319,321, 330 definition, 292 fisheries and, 292

forecasting and responses to, 591, 721 in Latin America, 585, 586, 591 malaria and, 404 marine ecosystems and, 95, 101 in North America, 623, 627, 630 projected changes and impacts, 794 in small islands, 689,690, 691, 692 See also Modes of climate variability Elderly population disproportionate impacts of climate/weather events, 363, 399, 730

mortality from extreme weather events, 362, 563 vulnerability of, 43,64, 393, 399, 557, 791 Emigration. See Migration Emissions scenarios*, 155,529, 758 Encephalitis, 625

Endemic* species, 213,216,230,241,583 vulnerability/risk, 38, 54, 786 See also Biodiversity

Energy adaptation, 379

adaptation costs and benefits, 725,726

in adaptation/mitigation decisions, 759, 760,767-768

clean development, 248,418-419,752, 753, 835

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 36, 366-367, 371,790

global cost estimates, 727

production, 193, 363, 367

vulnerability/risk, 790

See also Biofuels; Energy use/demand; Hydropower generation; Wind Energy use/demand in Africa, 442,446,459, 767-769 in Asia, 111,488-489

in Australia/New Zealand region, 511,516,523-524 in Europe, 52-53,543, 545, 548,556, 561, 565 in North America, 367, 626, 633, 634-635 observed changes, 111 in small islands, 702 Ensemble* models, 77, 800 ENSO. See El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), 724 Environmental quality, 76, 361-362,365, 819-820,835 Epidemics*, 399-400,404-405,415-416 in Africa, 406,438,446,447 in Latin America, 586 Equity issues, 76,494-495,784,786, 813, 826-827, 835 Erosion*

in Australia/New Zealand region, 511, 520-521, 522

in coastal systems, 92, 93, 317, 320, 324-326, 328, 338,

623,630 in North America, 623, 630 soil, 179, 189-190,558 Estuaries, 328 in Africa, 450 in Asia, 485

in Australia/New Zealand region, 517 salinisation of, 175, 179, 189 Europe, 51-53,60-61,541-580

adaptation and adaptive capacity, 52, 53,117, 543, 544,

547, 559-562, 722, 724 agriculture and fisheries, 52,543, 545-546,548-549,

554-556,558,560-561,565 assumptions about future trends, 547-549 biodiversity, 52, 543, 553-554, 558, 560, 565 biofuel use in, 299 case studies, 562-563 climate, 544, 545

climate projections, 51-52, 547-548 coastal and marine systems, 51, 543, 550-551, 558, 559, 565

COST725 project, 112,113 cryosphere, 546

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 544, 545-547 economy/economic impacts, 52-53, 543-544, 545 ecosystem impacts, 243-244, 543, 546, 553-554 energy and transport, 52-53, 543,545, 548, 556,561, 565 European Alps, 28, 53,102, 216,546, 548, 551-552, 557 European Biomass Action Plan, 299 extreme events, 544, 548 fires, 51, 543, 552,558

flood and drought risk, 51, 187,188, 543, 550, 558 flood defenses, 333,417, 559, 562 food and fibre products, 545

forests, shrublands and grasslands, 52, 106-107,543, 545, 549, 552-553, 559-560, 565

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 51-53, 60-61, 549-558,

565, 825,829 glaciers, 28, 52, 543, 549-550, 551, 558 greenhouse gas emissions, 545,769-770 growing season, 99

heatwave of Summer 2003,51,217, 362, 397, 562-563 heatwaves, 544, 557, 733

human health, 51, 395,403,409, 543, 546,557-558, 562, 565

human population, 545, 548

insurance/property insurance, 557,561-562, 565, 723

introduction, 544

land use, 548-549

mitigation policy, 767, 769-770

mountains and sub-Arctic regions, 543, 551-552, 559, 565 natural resources, 51-52

observed changes, 30, 51, 92, 99-100,115-116, 543, 546 phenology, 51-52,99-100,101,113,546,551,552,553, 558

precipitation, 151, 545, 547

socio-economic development, 548

sustainable development, 546-547, 563-564

temperature, 150, 545, 547

thermohaline circulation and, 563

tourism and recreation, 53, 336,556-557, 561,565

uncertainties and research priorities, 564, 566

urban indicators, 363

urbanisation in, 549, 550

water resources, 52,543, 545, 549-550, 557, 558, 559, 560, 565

water stress, 52, 543, 550,552, 559 wetlands and aquatic ecosystems, 92, 543, 551, 553, 560, 565

windstorms/wind speed, 489, 547-548,557 Eustatic sea-level rise. See Sea-level rise

See also specific countries Eutrophication* in Asia, 485

in Australia/New Zealand region, 517 in Europe, 551, 553, 558, 565 Evaporation*, 55,84,89,91, 300 Evapotranspiration*, 64,84,91,177,184-186,232 carbon dioxide enrichment and, 184-185 in mountain regions, 232-233 in North America, 621 observed trends, 177 Evolutionary processes, 104,403

Exotic species. See Invasive species and invasive alien species (IAS)

Exposure, 43,791, 814, 821 Exposure unit, 141 Externalities*, 69, 382,719,771 Extinction*, 38, 213, 215, 241-242 in Africa, 48

of amphibians, 103, 230, 233, 586, 590 in Asia, 49,471,485-486 in Australia/New Zealand region, 517, 528

'committed to extinction,' 241,242-245, 553, 630, 792 in Europe, 553 of fish, 39-40, 275,291, 300 in freshwater ecosystems, 192, 193 irreversible impacts of, 213 in Latin America, 54, 586, 590, 596 in North America, 55, 630, 631 observed changes, 103 projected changes, 38, 213 See also Butterflies; Extirpation Extirpation*, 226,228,247,485

See also Extinction Extra-tropical cyclones, 109-110, 317, 324,623,627,692 Extreme weather events*, 41,64,68,73-75 adaptation, 721, 723, 798 in Africa, 377,437,444

agriculture/livestock impacts, 275, 277, 277, 278 analogues, 146

in Asia, 473,476,479,488,489 in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 511 coastal systems, lessons from, 340 costs of, 55,332, 338, 362,489, 511, 513, 619, 621,626, 630

in Europe, 362

food, fibre and forest products and, 275, 283, 284, 298, 299

gender-related differences in impacts, 398, 730 human health and, 338, 393, 418, 635 increase in frequency/intensity, 38, 109-111, 283, 359, 372, 473,781,796

industry, settlement and society and, 41, 359, 362, 369,

372,377 infrastructure and, 625-626 in Latin America, 53, 583, 585, 594 megadeltas, vulnerabilities to, 377 mortality from, 393, 394

in North America, 332, 338, 619, 621,625-626, 632-633 projected impacts and interactions, 38,68, 375,413 scenarios, 148-152 in small islands, 695

vulnerability/risk, 41, 64,73-75,781, 789, 795,796 See also Climate variability; Droughts; Extra-tropical cyclones; Fires; Floods; Heatwaves; Hurricanes

FACE experiments, 40,276,282, 300 Fagus sylvatica, 107,232

Farming. See Agriculture; Crops; Crop yields; Grain crops; Livestock

Feedbacks* biotic, 219-222 carbon cycle, 792-793 cascading, in freshwater systems, 655, 660 from changes in polar regions, 56-57, 655,660, 661-662, 667-668 Fiji, 695,705 Filariasis, 689,701 Financial sector, 721, 723

See also Insurance Fires, 229,275,290,299, 300 in Africa, 435,442 in Asia, 471,472,477-478,486 in Australia/New Zealand region, 50,509, 511, 517 carbon emission from, 107 controlled/prescribed burning, 247, 560 ecosystem effects, 217-218 in Europe, 51, 552, 558 fire-dependent biomes, 215 fire suppression, 218 in Latin America, 53, 596, 600 modelling, 290

in North America, 56, 619, 620, 621, 623, 631, 636 observed changes, 107 in peatlands, 477-478 projected changes, 38, 789, 792, 795 vulnerability/risk, 789, 792, 795 See also Disturbance regimes Fish, 236

biogeography, 95

distribution of species, 28,233-234, 659 extinction, risk of, 631

extinctions at edges of ranges, 39-40, 275, 291, 300 growth, effect of temperature on, 291 migration, 98, 333 North America, 624, 629, 631-632 observed changes, 81,95, 97 parasites, 292 in polar regions, 665, 669 projected changes, 49 salmon, 192-193, 275, 291, 624, 629 sea ice reduction and, 236 sturgeon, 275, 291 trout, 291,665 tuna, 292, 482, 700 See also Fisheries Fisheries, 39-40,275,276-277,291-292,302 adaptation, 300

in Africa, 281,435,448,449,450 in Asia, 49,279, 281,471,482,489 Atlantic cod, 670

in Australia/New Zealand region, 512, 521

in coastal areas, 333

decadal variability and extremes, 292

economic impacts, 292, 790

fin-fish, 669

globalisation and, 719, 730 importance of, 276

in Latin America, 281, 584, 587, 590, 593, 603 meridional overturning circulation and, 275, 292 multiple stresses, 279 in North America, 620, 624, 629,631-632 observed changes, 81,97, 816 pathogens/parasites, 292

in polar regions, 49, 291, 655, 659, 665, 669, 676 production, global, 291

projected changes, 39-40 in small islands, 57-58, 689, 700 supply and demand, 281 sustainability, 276 wild-capture, 281, 291-292 See also Fish Floods, 175,186-187,414

adaptation/defences, 70, 381, 517, 722, 724, 725

in Africa, 377, 398,414,435,437,447

in Asia, 398,414,471,472,476,489

in Australia/New Zealand region, 517

coastal settlement and, 40, 64, 317,331, 333-334,484, 813

costs, 338

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 178 in Europe, 51, 187,188, 550 extreme events, 109, 511, 789 flash floods, 51, 187, 789

future frequency of "100-year" floods, 372, 550, 633, 636

human health impacts, 398-399

Hurricane Katrina flood depths, 360,414

insurance, 369, 377

in Latin America, 398, 586, 588

in North America, 55, 620, 626, 630, 633

observed changes, 89, 90,177

projected impacts and interactions, 35, 196,375, 789

river floods, 109

types of, 186

vulnerability/risk, 35, 789, 824 See also Extreme weather events Fluoride in groundwater, 179 Food-borne illnesses, 108,109,625,701

See also Diseases; Human health Food chain*, 81,279,291-292,793 Food, fibre and forest products, 38-40,45,273-313 adaptation, 38-39, 275, 294-296, 300 adaptive capacity, 275, 279-280 air pollutants and UV-B radiation, 278 aquaculture, 276-277 assumptions about future trends, 280-282 biotechnology, 296 capacity building, 296

carbon dioxide effects on, 276, 282-284, 285-287, 290, 300

carbon pools, 283 climate and, 280

conclusions/summary, 275-276, 299-303 costs and socio-economic aspects, 296-299, 301 current sensitivity/vulnerability, 277-280 extreme events, 38, 275, 283,284, 298, 299 fisheries, 39-40,275, 276-277,291-292 food-crop farming, 276, 283-285 food security (See Food security) forestry, 39, 275, 276, 283-285, 288-291, 301 future impacts and vulnerabilities, 38-40,45, 275,

282-294, 828 importance of, 276 industrial crops and biofuels, 288 introduction, 276-277

methods, 277

multiple stresses, 277-278,279, 290

pastures and livestock production, 285-288, 301

subsistence and smallholder agriculture, 275,279,

281-282,293-294 supply and demand balance, 280-282 sustainable development, 276, 299 temperature and, 282-283, 284-285,286, 287-288, 301 threshold responses, 277 trade and, 40, 275,276, 284, 297, 300 uncertainties and research priorities, 276, 285, 290, 299-303

weeds, insect pests and animal health, 283 See also Agriculture; Crops; Fisheries; Food security; Forestry Food poisoning, 400,410,701

ciguatera fish poisoning, 400,449, 701 Food safety, 400

Food security*, 297-298,299,300, 394, 399

in Africa, 48, 275,280, 297, 300, 399,435,440,454-456, 719

in Asia, 297, 399,471,479-481,482-483 in Australia/New Zealand region, 528-529, 529 gender-related vulnerability, 719,729, 730 human health and, 394, 399,413-414 in Latin America, 602 major components of, 455 projected changed, 40,48 in small islands, 689, 698-700 See also Food supply; Hunger Food-sharing, 728 Food supply, 482-483, 816 adaptation, 797

vulnerability/risk, 74, 781, 787, 802 See also Agriculture; Food security Food utilisation, 298 Food web*,97,216,236

marine, 234, 236, 239,793 Forecast. See Climate prediction; Climate projection Forest fires, 229,290,299, 300 in Africa, 442 air pollutants from, 402 in Asia, 471,486 attribution for increases in, 114 in North America, 31, 107, 620,621, 623, 631 observed changes, 107, 114 See also Fires

Forest products. See Food, fibre and forest products; Forestry Forestry, 38, 39,276,283-285,288-291

adaptation and mitigation decisions, 758, 759

adaptation strategies, 295-296, 300

in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 520, 525, 529

costs of climate change, 297

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, 277

FACE experiments, 40, 276, 300

future impacts, 39,40, 288-291, 297, 790

importance of, 276

insect damage control, 295

International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), 495 modelling, 290

in North America, 620,622, 624, 630,636 observed changes, 81-82,106-107 projected changes, 39,40 socio-economic impacts, 291, 297 summary of impacts, 301 , 302 supply and demand in, 281 timber productivity, 275, 289, 290, 300 trade and, 40, 275,289,297, 300 vulnerability/risk, 31, 82 See also Food, fibre and forest products Forests, 227-230,238

in Africa, 299,435,439,442 in Amazonia, 54, 218, 241,243, 281, 594-595, 596 in Asia, 471,472,477-478,481,485-486,488 biodiversity, 230

boreal, 217, 228, 276, 289,485-486 bushfire threat to, 442

carbon dioxide effects on growth, 40, 220-221, 228, 282-283

carbon stocks, 106,214, 227-228, 231-232,792-793 cloud, 48,230,244,439,596, 700 coastal areas, 317, 329, 333 deforestation (See Deforestation) dependent communities, 736-737 drought effects, 228 ecosystems, 213, 227-230, 238 in Europe, 52, 106,543, 545, 552,559-560, 565 growing season, 81 hurricane-induced mortality, 700 insect infestations/damage, 218, 228, 619, 623, 624, 631 land-use change and, 229-230 in Latin America, 106, 584,592, 594-595,602 mangrove (See Mangrove forests) in North America, 106,620, 622, 624,630, 735-736 phenology, 31 (See also Phenology) productivity, 39, 52, 81-82,106, 228, 297 rainforest, Australia/New Zealand region, 516,516, 518 range/biome shifts, 229, 237, 241 replacement by savannas, 583, 596 in small islands, 689, 700 tropical (See Tropical forests) See also Deforestation; Forest fires; Forestry; Reforestation Fossil fuels, 672-673, 826

Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, 40,276, 282, 300

Freshwater lens*, 36,186,689,697 Freshwater resources and management, 35-37,44,90-92, 173-210

adaptation and risk management, 36, 175, 196-200

adaptation limits, 199

assumptions about future trends, 180-182

climatic drivers, 180-181

costs and socio-economic aspects, 190-196

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 176-180

decision-making under uncertainty, 199-200

Dialogue on Water and Climate (DWC), 197 ecosystems, 28-31, 97-98, 213,214,233-234, 239, 789 erosion and sediment transport, 179, 189-190 feedbacks, 660

floods and droughts, 177, 178,186-187,188, 196 future impacts and vulnerabilities, 35-37,44, 182-190,

233-234, 789 groundwater, 90, 177, 179, 185-186 impact of human activities, 175-176 infrastructure, 36, 175, 191

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM),

196-197,200 introduction, 175-176 management policies, 175, 724 net negative impact of climate change, 175, 191 nonclimatic drivers, 181-182,194 observed changes, 90, 97-98,115-116,177 runoff, 36, 175, 177,182-184 sea-level rise and, 35 surface waters, 90, 177,177,182-185 sustainable development, 200-201 uncertainties and research priorities, 175, 200, 201-202 vulnerability/risk, 182-190, 233-234, 789 water chemistry, 89, 91

water demand/availability, 175,191-194, 196-200,197 water quality, 178-179, 188-189 water stress, 179, 193-194

water temperature/structure, 31, 36, 81, 91, 175,176 See also Water resources; specific regions Frogs. See Amphibians Frozen ground, 88,115,486

See also Permafrost Fruit bats (Pteropus spp.), 216 Functional extinction*. See Committed to extinction Fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella), 660,669 Fusarium, 586, 597

Future characterisations, 32-35,77-78,135,144-161 analogues, 32,145, 146 artificial experiments, 144-146,145 climate model data, 32 comprehensiveness, 145 definitions, 145

large-scale singularities, 35, 135,160 non-climate scenarios, 34-35 plausibility, 145

probabilistic futures, 35, 135,145,160-161

projections, 145

scenarios, 76,77,145, 146-160

sensitivity analysis, 32,145, 146

storylines, 32,145, 146,147

See also CCIAV assessment; Scenarios

Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, 64,327,485,496

See also Megadeltas Gastrointestinal disease, 487 Gender differential risk perception, 737

differential vulnerability and adaptive capacity, 719, 729, 730

natural disasters and, 398 General Circulation Model (GCM). See Climate models Generalists*, 229,241 Geo-engineering, 797

Geographically-distributed impact models, 824-825, 836 Geophysical systems, 74,782, 789,792-795 Giardia spp., 487,671

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), 86-88,395,414,477 Glacial lakes, 69,86, 88,719,721, 723 Glaciers*, 83, 86-88

adaptation to glacial retreat/melt, 719, 721, 722, 723, 781 in Africa, 439,440 in Arctic, 656, 661-662

in Asia, 49,471,472,477,481,483-484,487,493,494 attribution for glacial retreat, 114 Chacaltaya glacier, Bolivia, 87 in Europe, 28, 52,543, 549-550,551, 565 Himalayan glaciers, 49,481,483,487,493,494 in Latin America, 87, 584,589, 598 observed changes, 28, 83, 86-88, 114,177,589, 661-662 in polar regions, 656, 657,661, 663, 674 runoff from, 28, 89, 184 sea-level rise and, 663 vulnerability/risk, 781, 788 water supply from, 184, 187,483 See also Ice sheets Global mean annual temperature (GMAT) carbon dioxide stabilisation and, 158-159 modelling/scenarios, 34

projections, 783, 804 (See also Temperature projections) Global mean temperature (GMT)

aggregate impacts of increases in, 73, 781, 796-797,

803-804,821-825 key vulnerabilities/risks from increases in, 73-76, 781,

787-789, 803-804 thresholds, 803

See also Scenarios; Temperature; Temperature impacts; Temperature projections Global warming commitment to, 827

global impacts of cryosphere changes, 655, 660, 661-662, 667-668

impacts of additional degrees of warming (See

Temperature impacts) impacts of delay in addressing, 782, 802, 804 probability of exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial level, 801

risk-management timeline, 140

summary of future impacts, 44-47,59-63,66-68

summary of observed impacts, 26-31

See also Climate change; Scenarios; Temperature;

Temperature impacts; Temperature projections Globalisation*, 719,730

adaptation and, 278, 729, 730,797 in Africa, 440-441 food supply and, 482

in India, 719,729, 730 in small islands, 693, 707 sustainable development and, 819 Governance/government interactions with social/cultural systems, 375 local, climate change adaptation and, 382 new global governance structures, 383 participatory, 834 scenarios, 364 Grain crops in Africa, 448 in Asia, 475,479-481,481 in Australia/New Zealand region, 518 cereal grains, 38, 275, 285,286, 297-298, 302 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects, 277 in Europe, 545 in Latin America, 597 in North America, 624 projected changes, 38 sensitivity to climate change, 39 temperature and, 285,286,297

See also Agriculture; Crop yields; Food, fibre and forest products; specific crops Grasslands, 224-226,285-288 in Africa, 435,439,449 in Asia, 483,486

carbon dioxide effects on, 220, 225 carbon stocks, 214 in Europe, 549, 553, 560, 565 temperature impacts, 288 wildlife, 226

See also Rangelands; Savannas Great Barrier Reef, 50,242, 320,509,512,518,527

See also Coral bleaching; Coral reefs; Corals Great Lakes, North America, 56,619,627-629,628,634 Greenhouse effect*, 526, 605 Greenhouse gases (GHGs)* in Asia, 479,489,495 in Australia/New Zealand region, 510 climate change commitment from, 748 comparison between, 823 costs and damages avoided, 756-757 emissions goals, 748, 753 emissions in developing countries, 826 in Europe, 545, 769-770

mitigation scenarios, 35, 76,139-141, 158-160, 755-757,

799-802 in North America, 620 overshoot scenarios, 801-802, 804 in polar regions, 655, 662, 667, 672 potential release from permafrost, 88,213, 231, 661,662 risks of delay in mitigation, 782, 802 social cost of, 813,821-824

stabilisation scenarios, 35, 71, 529, 758, 765, 799-802 stabilisation targets, 799-802 uncertainties in future emissions/scenarios, 800 See also Carbon dioxide; Methane Greenland ice sheet, 74,655,656,657,661-662

deglaciation impacts, 64, 74

deglaciation parameters, 41, 73, 74, 781, 789,793-794 See also Ice sheets Grenada,693,701, 702 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)*

extreme weather event impacts as percent of, 359, 376 global agriculture impacts as percent of, 296-297 global damage estimates with increases in temperature, 65, 822

impacts computed as a percent of, 821 sea-level rise protection costs as percent of, 725 Gross national product (GNP)*, 245,547,592 Gross primary production*. See Primary production Gross world product, 790 Groundwater, 185-186

arsenic/fluoride in, 179, 587 in Asia, 483

in Latin America, 587, 599,602 in North America, 629 observed changes, 90, 177,177 salinisation, 35, 175, 179,189,483, 693 in small islands, 186, 189,693 See also Freshwater management Groundwater recharge*, 36,175,185-186,549 Growing season, 31,81,99,666 in Africa, 435,447-448 in Asia, 475,483 See also Phenology Groyne*,343

Guardrail analysis, 800, 802

Habitat*, 817

fragmentation, 37, 213, 554, 666, 783 loss, 52, 583, 592 sea-level rise and, 554 See also Ecosystems; specific habitats Hantavirus*, 404,586-587,625 Haplosporidium nelsoni, 292

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), 96,234, 328,400,551,556

Hawaii. See Small islands

Health. See Human health

Heat islands*, 55, 372-373,381,489,587,633

adaptation for, 492 Heat-related deaths,43,108, 393, 396-398,408,411,733 in Asia, 478

in Australia/New Zealand region, 519, 524, 525 in Europe, 397,411, 548, 557 in Latin America, 587, 600 in North America, 55,411, 619, 625 See also Heatwaves; Human health Heat stress, 38,49,487,492,599,689 effect on livestock, 287,447, 586 vulnerability/risk, 789 See also Extreme weather events Heatwaves, 51,396-397

adaptation, 43, 70, 719, 721, 722 in Asia, 396-397,476,478,492, 733

in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 511 early warning systems, 53,417,491, 544, 563 ecological impacts of, 217 energy use and, 111

in Europe, 51,217, 362,544, 548, 557,563 human health and, 396-397,413, 632 impacts of, 42,217, 375, 396-397, 632, 733 mortality from, 394 in North America, 619, 620,632 vulnerability/risk, 781

See also Extreme weather events; Heat-related deaths; Human health Hepatitis, 587-588 Herbaceous* growth, 225-226,552 Herring (Clupea harengus), 669 High-altitude regions. See Mountain regions High-latitude ecosystems, 38, 230-232 High-latitude islands, 58 biodiversity, 689, 700 sea-level trends, 692 temperature and precipitation, 694 Himalayan glaciers, 49,473,481,487,493,494 Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, freshwater runoff, 49,184,

187,483 HIV/AIDS, 399, 406

in Africa, 69,440,441,442,448 in Latin America, 587 malaria and, 404 Hotspots. See Vulnerability hotspots Huanghe River damming of, 326 sediment load, 319, 326,485 water supply and, 179 Human capital, 816

See also Social capital Human health, 43,47,391-431

adaptation, 43,415-418,491, 727-728

adaptive capacity, 43, 64, 393,406

in Africa, 108-109, 399-400,416,435,436,437-439,441,

446-447, 459 air quality and, 401-402,408-412,418-419 in Asia, 50,395,408,472,478,481,487,488,491 assumptions about future trends, 405-406 in Australia/New Zealand region, 524,525, 529 in coastal areas, 43, 334-335, 338, 393,414 costs, 415

current sensitivity/vulnerability, 396-405

disasters and, 338, 393, 635

drought, nutrition and food security, 399-400,407,

413-414 in Europe, 51, 546, 557-558 food safety, 400

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 43,47, 372, 393,406,

407-415, 787, 828 heat and cold health effects, 31, 393, 396-397, 396-398,

407,411,632 heatwaves and, 396-397, 413, 632 impact assessments, regional, 394, 395,409-412

impacts, direction and magnitude of, 418 introduction, 393-395

in Latin America, 395,403,405,408, 583, 584, 586-588,

599-601,603-604 methods and gaps in knowledge, 394-395 modelling/projections, 405-415,413 monitoring of diseases, 43,491 national and international programmes, 43 in North America, 55, 619, 620, 625, 632, 635 observed changes, 31, 82, 107-109 occupational health, 405 pathways of climate change effects, 396 in polar regions, 657, 671-672 public health administration, 415-417 in small islands, 58, 689-690, 701 sustainable development, 418-419 ultraviolet radiation and, 405 uncertainties and research priorities, 419 vector-born, rodent-borne and other infectious diseases,

403-405,409-410 vulnerability/risk, 407-415, 787 vulnerable populations and regions, 412-415 water and, 400-401,413 wind, storms and floods, 393, 398-399 See also Diseases; specific diseases Human migration. See Migration, human Human population in Africa, 441

in Asia, 477,479,484,488,491 in Australia/New Zealand region, 509, 510, 516, 522 in coastal areas, 40, 317, 318, 319, 323, 327, 346 as driver of water use, 182 global, 406, 816

as key future condition, 363-364 in Latin America, 587, 595 population-environment interactions, 441 urban population, by size-class of urban centre, 363 Human settlements adaptation, 381-382 in Africa, 439-440,450 in Asia, 472,485,491,493 in Australia/New Zealand region, 521-522 in coastal areas, 81, 317-318, 331, 333-334, 359, 791 future impacts and vulnerabilities, 41-43,46-47, 371-373 inertia in, 317-318 informal settlements, 372, 373-374 in North America, 620, 625-626, 632-633, 633 in polar regions, 56, 376, 656, 657, 661 rural settlements, 282, 383,413,491-492,625 in small islands, 689, 690, 693,695, 700-701 urban settlements, 361, 363, 371, 372 See also Construction; Industry, settlement and society; Urban settlements Human systems*, 790-791 adaptive capacity, 798 changes in, 83 context for, 361,366,374 responses to climate change, 81-82, 366

scale and factors in, 366

See also Adaptation; Industry, settlement and society Hunger, risk of, 275,298,299, 300,482-483 global-scale projections, 38, 813,824, 825 See also Food security; Food supply Hurricanes costs of, 369,376,377,489,626,798 human health impacts, 399 Hurricane Andrew, 369 Hurricane Catarina, 585 Hurricane Georges, 362 Hurricane Gudrun, 290 Hurricane Ivan, 693, 701, 702

Hurricane Katrina, 332, 333, 369, 377, 399, 625, 635, 815 Hurricane Katrina, flood depths, 360, 414 Hurricane Mitch, 376, 376, 730 Hurricane Rita, 92, 399

impacts, 399, 625-626 (See also specific hurricanes)

mortality of wild organisms, 216

in North America, 621, 625-626,627 (See also specific hurricanes) projected changes, 54 storm surge and, 92 tourism impacts, 336

See also Extreme weather events; Tropical cyclones Hydrographic events*, 236 Hydrological systems*, 81,90-92

adaptation and mitigation in, 759-760 in Africa, 446

in Asia, 471-472,477,483-484,490-491 observed changes, 28 in polar regions, 56, 655, 662,664-665 rain-to-snow ratio, 662 See also Water resources Hydrology. See Freshwater resources and management;

Hydrological systems; Water resources Hydropower generation, 193, 367,760 in Africa, 768-769 in Asia, 483

climate-related impacts on, 626 development decisions and, 818-819 in Europe, 52,543, 556 in Latin America, 586,589, 591, 597-598 in North America, 619, 626, 628,634, 818-819 projected changes, 36 Hypolimnetic* oxygen concentration, 233 Hypoxic events*, 235 See also Eutrophication

Ice cover, 86-88

Ice jams, 89,484

Ice, sea. See Sea ice

Ice sheets*, 64, 86-88,661-662

Antarctic, 64, 73, 655, 656,663, 781, 789,793-794, 800

deglaciation, impacts of, 41,64

deglaciation, thresholds for, 41, 73, 781, 793,797, 800

Greenland, 64,73, 74,655, 656, 657,661-662, 781, 789,

793-794, 800 observed changed, 28, 793 projected scenarios, 793-794 sea-level rise and, 41,317,346, 793 vulnerability/risk, 64, 74,781, 789, 793-794 Ice shelves*, 28,86,674-675 Immigration/migration in Australia/New Zealand region, 522, 531 in coastal areas, 320, 323, 331, 333-334 in North America, 627,632 See also Migration, human Impact assessment*, 136-137 characteristics summarised, 137 distribution and aggregation of impacts, 784, 825 global warming timeline and, 140 methods, 136-137

as top-down approach, 136, 748-749 uncertainties and, 141

See also CCIAV assessment; Vulnerability assessment Impacts*, of climate change, 26-31

aggregate, 64, 75, 784, 787, 790, 796-797, 821-825 assessment of (See Impact assessment; Vulnerability assessment) costing, 64-65

cumulative vs. systematic, 365

current knowledge about future impacts, 35-65

definition, 781, 782

direct and indirect, 362-363, 364, 821

disproportionate, 55, 363,625

distribution of, 64, 65, 75, 781,784, 786, 790-791, 796

ecosystems, global synthesis, 239-245

gender aspects, 729, 730

global, 821-825

global, associated with temperature increases, 64, 66, 828-829

global, of polar region/cryosphere changes, 56-57, 655,

660,661-662,667-668 global-scale, by 2080, 824 key impacts/vulnerabilities, 73-75, 781, 783-797 multiple stresses and, 813, 816-819 non-climate factors and, 135

regional, associated with temperature increases, 829 spatially-explicit methods, 824-825, 836 summarised, 44-47, 59-63, 66-68 unavoidability of, 65-69, 782, 813, 827 (See also Mitigation)

See also specific systems and regions; Vulnerability assessment Inca civilization, 605 Income gap, 364 India adaptive capacity to multiple stresses, 71 agriculture, 719, 729, 730 aquaculture, 281 disaster preparedness, 378 globalisation/trade, 719, 729, 730 heatwaves, 396, 478

human health, 395, 399,409,413,487 human population, 488 malaria, 395,409,413 megadeltas, 496 projected crop yields, 297 water resources, 477,481,483,484 wetlands, 234 See also Asia Indian Ocean climate regimes, 691 relative sea-level rise, 692 tropical storms, 692 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), 319

See also Modes of climate variability Indigenous peoples*, 31,74, 81

adaptation, 82,416, 673-674, 719, 728, 729-730 adaptive capacity, 509, 522, 661, 728, 729-730 in Africa, 456-457

in Australia/New Zealand region, 509, 522-523, 524 changes in livelihood strategies, 82, 673, 719 economies of, 82, 103, 373,625 human health, adaptation measures, 416 knowledge systems of, 456-457, 523, 666, 673-674, 832, 833

in Latin America (pre-Colombian), 605

in North America, 55, 619,625, 639, 719,730-731

in polar regions, 31, 56, 82, 657, 659, 661, 673-675,

730-731 resilience of, 56, 655, 673, 674 vulnerability/risk, 74, 788, 791, 796 Industrial Revolution*, pre-industrial temperatures, 783 Industry, settlement and society, 41-43,46-47,357-390 adaptation, 359, 379-384 adaptation, key issues, 383-384 adaptation, local government and, 382 assumptions about future trends, 363-364 costs and socio-economic issues, 362, 365, 376-379 current sensitivity/vulnerability, 361-363 direct and indirect climate change impacts, 367 environmental migration, 365

extreme weather events and, 41, 359, 362, 369, 372, 377 future impacts and vulnerabilities, 41-43,46-47, 361,

364-376 human settlement, 371-373 human systems in context, 361, 366, 374 industry, 366-367, 378-379 insurance, 369-370 introduction, 359-361 linkages, 43, 359, 362, 365, 366, 374, 382 multiples stresses, 361, 372, 373, 374-376,377 retail and commercial services, 368 sanitation and urban drainage, 371 scale, 360, 366 services, 367, 379-381 social issues, 373-374, 382-383 social systems, 362 sustainable development, 384 thresholds, 359,361,365

tourism, 363, 368-369 trade, 367-368

transportation, power and communication infrastructures, 371

uncertainties and research priorities, 378, 385 utilities/infrastructure, 359, 362, 365, 370, 374, 381 vulnerability/risk, 31,43 water supplies, 370-371

See also Construction; Human settlements; Urban settlements

Infectious diseases*, 393,403-405,407,418 in Australia/New Zealand region, 524 bird migration and, 403 climate-related factors and, 478 current sensitivity/vulnerability, 403-405 drought and, 399-400,478 in North America, 625 phytoplankton blooms and, 487 projections, 43

See also Diseases; Human health; Vector-borne diseases; Water-borne diseases; specific diseases Infrastructure*, 359, 365,367 adaptation, 381

adaptation costs and benefits, 725

in Africa, 439-440,441,450,453

in Asia, 471,488-489,492

in Australia/New Zealand region, 50, 509, 525,529

in coastal systems, 331, 333-334

deterioration/damage of, 88, 362, 661, 675

extreme events and, 625-626

freshwater resources/management, 36, 175, 191

future impacts and vulnerabilities, 359, 370, 374, 787

lifetimes, 638

linkage systems, 362

in North America, 55, 619, 625-626,632, 633, 635,636, 638

in polar regions, 376, 655,661, 675 in small islands, 57, 689,690, 702-703 sustainable development and, 639 transport, power and communications, 371, 556 vulnerability/risk, 787 water-supply, 36, 365, 371

See also Human settlements; Transportation; specific regions

Insect pests, 38,107,400,483 damage control, 295

distribution, transmission and seasonality of, 393,404,

435, 437-439, 446, 487 forest infestations in North America, 56, 218,619, 623,

624,631 impacts on coffee growing, 597

impacts on food, fibre and forest products, 217, 218, 283, 290

pine and spruce beetles, 107, 228,283, 623, 624,631, 667 spread of, 792 spruce budworm, 218,623 See also Disturbance regimes; Insects Insects climate change impacts on, 512 evolutionary processes, 104

impacts on food, fibre and forest products, 217, 218, 283, 299

impacts on forests, 228, 623,624 impacts on livestock, 555 morphology and reproduction, 103

See also Disturbance regimes; Insect pests; specific insects Insurance, 489,735

adaptation, 380-381, 723 catastrophe models, 337 disaster losses, 110, 377 future impacts and vulnerabilities, 369-370, 790 Hurricane Katrina claims, 377 non-availability/withdrawal of, 380-381 property insurance in Europe, 557, 561-562, 565 reinsurance, 110, 369, 370, 376 in small islands, 707 Integrated assessment*, 136,139,337, 822

adaptation and mitigation inter-relationships, 754-760 characteristics summarised, 137 global warming timeline, 140 See also Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), 155-156,749,

754-756,757,770-771 Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), 340-341, 491

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)*,

196-197,200,370-371 Inter-relationships. See Adaptation and mitigation interrelationships Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), 584 Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), 691

See also Modes of climate variability Intergenerational ethics, 835 International agreements, 72,495,748 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 495 International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent

Societies (IFRCRCS), 442, 732 International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), 495 Inuit people, 719,729-730

Invasive species and invasive alien species (IAS)*, 103, 216, 218,232,247 in Australia/New Zealand region, 512, 517, 518, 520 direct and indirect effects of, 84 in Europe, 551, 554 in North America, 619, 635, 640 observed changes, 95 in small islands, 58

Irrigation wastewater re-use for, 418 water demand for, 36,481, 482 water use for, 179, 182, 192,284, 550, 559 Irrigation water-use efficiency*, 284 Islands. See Small islands Isohyet*, 224

Ixodes scapularis, 625,632

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How To Survive The End Of The World

How To Survive The End Of The World

Preparing for Armageddon, Natural Disasters, Nuclear Strikes, the Zombie Apocalypse, and Every Other Threat to Human Life on Earth. Most of us have thought about how we would handle various types of scenarios that could signal the end of the world. There are plenty of movies on the subject, psychological papers, and even survivalists that are part of reality TV shows. Perhaps you have had dreams about being one of the few left and what you would do in order to survive.

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