Box TS3 Definitions of key terms

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Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and the variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.

4 See http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/uncertaintyguidancenote.pdf.

to urban area), land-cover modification (e.g., ecosystem degradation), technological change, pollution, and invasive species constitute some of the important non-climate drivers [1.2.1].

Much more evidence has accumulated over the past 5 years to indicate that the effects described above are linked to the anthropogenic component of warming.5 There are three sets of evidence which, taken together, support this conclusion (see Box TS.4).

1. There have been several studies that have linked responses in some physical and biological systems to the anthropogenic component of warming by comparing observed trends with modelled trends in which the natural and anthropogenic forcings are explicitly separated [1.4].

2. Observed changes in many physical and biological systems are consistent with a warming world. The majority (>89% of the >29,000 data sets whose locations are displayed in Figure TS.1) of changes in these systems have been in the direction expected as a response to warming [1.4].

3. A global synthesis of studies in this Assessment strongly demonstrates that the spatial agreement between regions of significant regional warming across the globe and the locations of significant observed changes in many systems consistent with warming is very unlikely6 to be due solely to natural variability of temperatures or natural variability of the systems [1.4].

For physical systems, (i) climate change is affecting natural and human systems in regions of snow, ice and frozen ground, and (ii) there is now evidence of effects on hydrology and water resources, coastal zones and oceans.

The main evidence from regions of snow, ice and frozen ground is found in ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches; decrease in travel days of vehicles over frozen roads in the Arctic; increase and enlargement of glacial lakes, and destabilisation of moraines damming these lakes, with increased risk of outburst floods; changes in Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula ecosystems, including sea-ice biomes and predators high on the food chain; and limitations on mountain sports in lower-elevation alpine areas (high confidence)7 [1.3.1]. These changes parallel the abundant evidence that Arctic sea ice, freshwater ice, ice shelves, the Greenland ice sheet, alpine and Antarctic Peninsula glaciers and ice caps, snow cover and permafrost are undergoing enhanced melting in response to global warming (very high confidence) [WGIAR4 Chapter 4].

Recent evidence in hydrology and water resources shows that spring peak discharge is occurring earlier in rivers affected by snow melt, and there is evidence for enhanced glacial melt in the tropical Andes and in the Alps. Lakes and rivers around the world are warming, with effects on thermal structure and water quality (high confidence) [1.3.2].

Sea-level rise and human development are together contributing to losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves and increasing damage from coastal flooding in many areas (medium confidence) [1.3.3.2].

There is more evidence, from a wider range of species and communities in terrestrial ecosystems than reported in the Third Assessment, that recent warming is already strongly affecting natural biological systems. There is substantial new evidence relating changes in marine and freshwater systems to warming. The evidence suggests that both terrestrial and marine biological systems are now being strongly influenced by observed recent warming.

The overwhelming majority of studies of regional climate effects on terrestrial species reveal consistent responses to warming trends, including poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna. Responses of terrestrial species to warming across the Northern Hemisphere are well documented by changes in the timing of growth stages (i.e., phenological changes), especially the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season. Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there have been trends in many regions towards earlier 'greening' of vegetation in the spring8 and increased net primary production linked to longer growing seasons. Changes in abundance of certain species, including limited evidence of a few local disappearances, and changes in community composition over the last few decades have been attributed to climate change (very high confidence) [1.3.5].

Many observed changes in phenology and distribution of marine and freshwater species have been associated with rising water temperatures, as well as other climate-driven changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation. There have been poleward shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans. For example, plankton has moved polewards by 10° latitude (about 1,000 km) over a period of four decades in the North Atlantic. There have also been documented increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes, and earlier fish migration and range changes in rivers [1.3]. While there is increasing evidence for climate change impacts on coral reefs, differentiating the impacts of climate-related stresses from other stresses (e.g., over-fishing and pollution) is difficult. The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic, with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units [WGI AR4 SPM]. However, the effects of observed

5 Warming over the past 50 years at the continental scale has been attributed to anthropogenic effects [WGI AR4 SPM].

8 Measured by the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), which is a relative measure of vegetation greenness in satellite images.

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