Asia

• A 1 m rise in sea level would lead to a loss of almost half of the mangrove area in the Mekong River delta (2,500 km2), while approximately 100,000 ha of cultivated land and aquaculture area would become salt marsh. * N [10.4.3]

• Coastal areas, especially heavily populated megadelta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding from the rivers. For a 1 m rise in sea level, 5,000 km2 of Red River delta, and 15,000 to 20,000 km2 of Mekong River delta are projected to be flooded, which could affect 4 million and 3.5 to 5 million people, respectively. * N [10.4.3]

• Tibetan Plateau glaciers of under 4 km in length are projected to disappear with a temperature increase of 3°C and no change in precipitation. ** D [10.4.4]

• If current warming rates are maintained, Himalayan glaciers could decay at very rapid rates, shrinking from the present 500,000 km2 to 100,000 km2 by the 2030s. ** D [10.6.2]

• Around 30% of Asian coral reefs are expected to be lost in the next 30 years, compared with 18% globally under the IS92a emissions scenario, but this is due to multiple stresses and not to climate change alone. ** D [10.4.3]

• It is estimated that under the full range of SRES scenarios, 120 million to 1.2 billion and 185 to 981 million people will experience increased water stress by the 2020s and the 2050s, respectively. ** D [10.4.2]

• The per capita availability of freshwater in India is expected to drop from around 1,900 m3 currently to 1,000 m3 by 2025 in response to the combined effects of population growth and climate change [10.4.2.3]. More intense rain and more frequent flash floods during the monsoon would result in a higher proportion of runoff and a reduction in the proportion reaching the groundwater. ** N [10.4.2]

• It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia, while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanisation, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries. * N [10.4.1]

• Agricultural irrigation demand in arid and semi-arid regions of East Asia is expected to increase by 10% for an increase in temperature of 1°C. ** N [10.4.1]

• The frequency and extent of forest fires in northern Asia are expected to increase in the future due to climate change and extreme weather events that would likely limit forest expansion. * N [10.4.4]

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