Executive summary

Climate-change vulnerabilities of industry, settlement and society are mainly related to extreme weather events rather than to gradual climate change (very high confidence). The significance of gradual climate change, e.g., increases in the mean temperature, lies mainly in changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events, although gradual changes can also be associated with thresholds beyond which impacts become significant, such as in the capacities of infrastructures. 7.2,7.4 Aside...

Info

50 100 150 200 250 Annual flow (m3x106) 50 100 150 200 250 Annual flow (m3x106) Figure 3.7. Annual crop water demand and water supply for Trout Creek, Okanagan region, Canada, modelled for 1961 to 1990 (historic) and three 30-year time slices in the future. Each dot represents one year. Drought supply threshold is represented by the vertical line, maximum observed demand is shown as the horizontal line (Neilsen et al., 2004). Table 3.3. Relative costs per unit of water saved or supplied in the...

Box 172 Adaptation practices in the financial sector

Financial mechanisms can contribute to climate change adaptation. The insurance sector - especially property, health and crop insurance - can efficiently spread risks and reduce the financial hardships linked to extreme events. Financial markets can internalise information on climate risks and help transfer adaptation and risk-reduction incentives to communities and individuals (ABI, 2004), while capital markets and transfer mechanisms can alleviate financial constraints to the implementation...

Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

Key future climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Asia are summarised in Figure 10.4. A detailed discussion of these impacts and vulnerabilities are presented in the sections below. 10.4.1 Agriculture and food security Results of recent studies suggest that substantial decreases in cereal production potential in Asia could be likely by the end of this century as a consequence of climate change. However, regional differences in the response of wheat, maize and rice yields to projected...

Key uncertainties and investigation priorities

The projections mentioned in this chapter rely on the quality of the available mathematical models. As it can be seen in its different sections, there are contradictory statements. Such contradictions, also observed in other sectoral and regional chapters, make evident some of the weaknesses of models, especially when the necessary observational background is missing. In addition to the models' shortcomings, the use of socio-economic scenarios which are not sufficiently representative of the...

C42 Case studies

C4.2.1 Adaptation capacity of the South American highlands' pre-Colombian communities (Chapter 13, Box 13.2) The subsistence of indigenous civilisations in the Americas relied on the resources cropped under the prevailing climate conditions around their settlements. In the highlands of today's Latin America, one of the most critical limitations affecting development was, and currently is, the irregular distribution of water. This situation is the result of the particularities of the atmospheric...

A1b A2 A1fi

Global temperature changes for selected time periods, relative to 1980-1999, projected for SRES and stabilisation scenarios. To express the temperature change relative to 1850-1899, add 0.5 C. More detail is provided in Chapter 2 Box 2.8 . Estimates are for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, (the time periods used by the IPCC Data Distribution Centre and therefore in many impact studies) and for the 2090s. SRES-based projections are shown using two different approaches. Middle panel...

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988, in response to the widespread recognition that human-influenced emissions of greenhouse gases have the potential to alter the climate system. Its role is to provide an assessment of the understanding of all aspects of climate change. At its first session, the IPCC was organised into three Working Groups. The current remits of the...

Assumptions about future trends

The work reviewed in this chapter is dependent on assumptions of various types that are important in assessing the level of confidence that can be associated with its results (Moss and Schneider, 2000), but can be challenging to quantify and aggregate. Assumptions and uncertainties associated with climate scenarios (Randall et al., 2007) are not considered here, other than to identify the greenhouse gas emission trends or socio-economic development pathways (e.g., SRES, Nakicenovic et al.,...

Adaptation practices options and constraints

This section first highlights issues that arise with interventions designed to reduce risks to natural and human coastal systems as a consequence of climate change. As recognised in earlier IPCC assessments (Bijlsma et al., 1996 McLean et al., 2001), a key conclusion is that reactive and standalone efforts to reduce climate-related risks to coastal systems are less effective than responses which are part of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), including long-term national and community...

Australia and New Zealand

Kevin Hennessy (Australia), Blair Fitzharris (New Zealand) Bryson C. Bates (Australia), Nick Harvey (Australia), Mark Howden (Australia), Lesley Hughes (Australia), Jim Salinger (New Zealand), Richard Warrick (New Zealand) Susanne Becken (New Zealand), Lynda Chambers (Australia), Tony Coleman (Australia), Matt Dunn (New Zealand), Donna Green (Australia), Roddy Henderson (New Zealand), Alistair Hobday (Australia), Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (Australia), Gavin Kenny (New Zealand), Darren King (New...

Permissions to publish

Permissions to publish have been granted by the following copyright holders Fig. 1.2 Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd Nature O'Reilly, C.M. and Co-authors, 2003 Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika, Africa. Nature, 424,766-768. Copyright 2003. Fig. 1.3 From Beaugrand, G. and Co-authors, 2002b Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science, 296,1692-1694. Reprinted with permission from AAAS. Fig. 1.4(a)...

Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone

Many actions that facilitate adaptation to climate change are undertaken to deal with current extreme events such as heatwaves and cyclones. Often, planned adaptation initiatives are also not undertaken as stand-alone measures, but embedded within broader sectoral initiatives such as water-resource planning, coastal defence, and risk reduction strategies 17.2.2, 17.3.3 . Examples include consideration of climate change in the National Water Plan of Bangladesh, and the design of flood protection...

Box 141 Accelerating wildfire and ecosystem disturbance dynamics

Since 1980, an average of 22,000 km2 yr has burned in U.S. wildfires, almost twice the 1920 to 1980 average of 13,000 km2 yr (Schoennagel et al., 2004). The forested area burned in the western U.S. from 1987 to 2003 is 6.7 times the area burned from 1970 to 1986 (Westerling et al., 2006). In Canada, burned area has exceeded 60,000 km2 yr three times since 1990, twice the long-term average (Stocks et al., 2002). Wildfire-burned area in the North American boreal region increased from 6,500 km2 yr...

Box 13 Phenological responses to climate in Europe the COST725 project

The COST725 meta-analysis project used a very large phenological network of more than 125,000 observational series of various phases in 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries, for the period 1971 to 2000. The time-series were systematically (re-)analysed for trends in order to track and quantify phenological responses to changing climate. The advantage of this study is its inclusion of multiple verified nationally reported trends at single sites and or for selected species,...

Box 192 Reference for temperature levels

Levels of global mean temperature change are variously presented in the literature with respect to pre-industrial temperatures in a specified year e.g., 1750 or 1850 the average temperature of the 1961 -1990 period or the average temperature within the 1990-2000 period. The best estimate for the increase above pre-industrial levels in the 1990-2000 period is 0.6 C, reflecting the best estimate for warming over the 20th century (Folland et al., 2001 Trenberth et al., 2007). Therefore, to...

Box 64 Hurricane Katrina and coastal ecosystem services in the Mississippi delta

Whereas an individual hurricane event cannot be attributed to climate change, it can serve to illustrate the consequences for ecosystem services if the intensity and or frequency of such events were to increase in the future. One result of Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in coastal Louisiana on 29th August 2005, was the loss of 388 km2 of coastal wetlands, levees and islands that flank New Orleans in the Mississippi River deltaic plain (Barras, 2006) (Figure 6.7). (Hurricane Rita, which...

C11 Scenesetting and overview

C1.1.1 The European heatwave of 2003 (Chapter 12, Section 12.6.1) A severe heatwave over large parts of Europe in 2003 extended from June to mid-August, raising summer temperatures by 3 to 5 C in most of southern and central Europe (Figure C1.1). The warm anomalies in June lasted throughout the entire month (increases in monthly mean temperature of up to 6 to 7 C), but July was only slightly warmer than on average (+1 to +3 C), and the highest anomalies were reached between 1st and 13th August...

Box 23 SRESbased climate scenarios assumed in this report

Not all of the impact studies reported in this assessment employed SRES-based climate scenarios. Earlier scenarios are described in previous IPCC reports (IPCC, 1992, 1996 Greco et al., 1994). The remaining discussion focuses on SRES-based climate projections, which are applied in most CCIAV studies currently undertaken. In recent years, many simulations of the global climate response to the SRES emission scenarios have been completed with AOGCMs, also providing regional detail on projected...

Box 27 SRESbased landuse and landcover characterisations

Future land use was estimated by most of the lAMs used to characterise the SRES storylines, but estimates for any one storyline are model-dependent, and therefore vary widely. For example, under the B2 storyline, the change in the global area of grassland between 1990 and 2050 varies between -49 and +628 million ha (Mha), with the marker scenario giving a change of +167 Mha (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The IAM used to characterise the A2 marker scenario did not include landcover change, so...

Box 43 Polar bears a species in peril

There are an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) worldwide, mostly inhabiting the annual sea ice over the continental shelves and inter-island archipelagos of the circumpolar Arctic, where they may wander for thousands of kilometres per year. They are specialised predators on ice-breeding seals and are therefore dependent on sea ice for survival. Female bears require nourishment after emerging in spring from a 5 to 7 month fast in nursing dens (Ramsay and Stirling, 1988),...

Box 26 SRESbased socioeconomic characterisations

SRES provides socio-economic information in the form of storylines and quantitative assumptions on population, gross domestic product (GDP), and rates of technological progress for four large world regions (OECD-1990, Reforming Economies, Africa + Latin America + Middle East, and Asia). Since the TAR, new information on several of the SRES driving forces has been published (see also the discussion in Nakicenovic et al., 2007). For example, the range of global population size projections made by...

Box 54 Impact of coral mortality on reef fisheries

Coral reefs and their fisheries are subject to many stresses in addition to climate change (see Chapter 4). So far, events such as the 1998 mass coral bleaching in the Indian Ocean have not provided evidence of negative short-term bio-economic impacts for coastal reef fisheries (Spalding and Jarvis, 2002 Grandcourt and Cesar, 2003). In the longer term, there may be serious consequences for fisheries production that result from loss of coral communities and reduced structural complexity, which...

Case studies

Amazonia a 'hotspot' of the Earth system The Amazon Basin contains the largest contiguous extent of tropical forest on Earth, almost 5.8 million km2 (see Figure 13.3). It harbours perhaps 20 of the planet's plant and animal species. There is abundance of water resources and the Amazon River accounts for 18 of the freshwater input to the global oceans. Over the past 30 years almost 600,000 km2 have been deforested in Brazil alone (INPE-MMA, 2005a) due to the rapid development of...

Box 181 Definitions of terms

This box presents chapter-specific definitions of a number of (often related) terms relevant to the assessment of inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation. Unless indicated otherwise, the definitions are specialisations of standard definitions found in reputable online dictionaries (e.g., http www.m-w.com , http www.thefreedictionary.com ). Trade-off A balancing of adaptation and mitigation when it is not possible to carry out both activities fully at the same time (e.g., due to...

Box TS1 Sourcing in the Technical Summary

For example, source 3.3.2 refers to Chapter 3, Section 3, Sub-section 2. In the sourcing, F Figure, T Table, B Box, ES Executive Summary. References to the Working Group I Fourth Assessment are shown as, for example, WGI AR4 SPM which refers to the Working Group I Fourth Assessment Summary for Policymakers, WGI AR410.3.2 which refers to Chapter 10 Section 10.3.2, and WGI AR4 Chapter 10 when the whole chapter is referred to. Where a source refers to both the WGI and WGII Fourth Assessments,...

C4 Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change

C4.1.1 Role of local and indigenous knowledge in adaptation and sustainability research (Chapter 20, Box 20.1) Research on indigenous environmental knowledge has been undertaken in many countries, often in the context of understanding local oral histories and cultural attachment to place. A survey of research during the 1980s and early 1990s was produced by Johnson (1992). Reid et al. (2006) outline the many technical and social issues related to the intersection of different knowledge systems,...

C31 Introduction

C3.1.1 Deltas and megadeltas hotspots for vulnerability (Chapter 6, Box 6.3) Deltas, some of the largest sedimentary deposits in the world, are widely recognised as being highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly sea-level rise and changes in runoff, as well as being subject to stresses imposed by human modification of catchment and delta plain land use. Most deltas are already undergoing natural subsidence that results in accelerated rates of relative sea-level rise...

Box 21 Definitions of future characterisations

Figure 2.4 illustrates the relationships among the categories of future characterisations most commonly used in CCIAV studies. Because definitions vary across different fields, we present a single consistent typology for use in this chapter. Categories are distinguished according to comprehensiveness and plausibility. Comprehensiveness indicates the degree to which a characterisation of the future captures the various aspects of the socioeconomic biophysical system it aims to represent....

Cambridge University Press

Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, S o Paolo, Delhi 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA www.cambridge.org Information on this title www.cambridge.org 9780521880107 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on...

Box 51 European heatwave impact on the agricultural sector

Europe experienced a particularly extreme climate event during the summer of 2003, with temperatures up to 6 C above long-term means, and precipitation deficits up to 300 mm (see Trenberth et al., 2007). A record drop in crop yield of 36 occurred in Italy for maize grown in the Po valley, where extremely high temperatures prevailed (Ciais et al., 2005). In France, compared to 2002, the maize grain crop was reduced by 30 and fruit harvests declined by 25 . Winter crops (wheat) had nearly...

Characterising the future

2.4.1 Why and how do we characterise future conditions Evaluations of future climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability require assumptions, whether explicit or implicit, about how future socio-economic and biophysical conditions will develop. The literature on methods of characterising the future has grown in tandem with the literature on CCIAV, but these methods have not been defined consistently across different research communities. Box 2.1 presents a consistent typology of...

Coastal processes and zones

Many coastal regions are already experiencing the effects of relative (local) sea-level rise, from a combination of climate-induced sea-level rise, geological and anthropogenic-induced land subsidence, and other local factors. A major challenge, however, is to separate the different meteorological, oceanographic, geophysical and anthropogenic processes affecting the shoreline in order to identify and isolate the contribution of global warming. An unambiguous attribution of current sea-level...

Current sensitivityvulnerability

12.2.1 Climate factors and trends The warming trend throughout Europe is well established (+0.90 C for 1901 to 2005 updated from Jones and Moberg, 2003). However, the recent period shows a trend considerably higher than the mean trend (+0.41 C decade for the period 1979 to 2005 updated from Jones and Moberg, 2003). For the 1977 to 2000 period, trends are higher in central and north-eastern Europe and in mountainous regions, while lower trends are found in the Mediterranean region (B hm et al.,...

Coastal systems and lowlying areas

Nicholls (UK), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore) Virginia Burkett (USA), Jorge Codignotto (Argentina), John Hay (New Zealand), Roger McLean (Australia), Sachooda Ragoonaden (Mauritius), Colin D. Woodroffe (Australia) Pamela Abuodha (Kenya), Julie Arblaster (USA Australia), Barbara Brown (UK), Don Forbes (Canada), Jim Hall (UK), Sari Kovats (UK), Jason Lowe (UK), Kathy McInnes (Australia), Susanne Moser (USA), Susanne Rupp-Armstrong (UK), Yoshiki Saito (Japan), Richard S.J. Tol (Ireland) Job...

C23 Multiple stresses on coral reefs

C2.3.1 Non-climate-change threats to coral reefs of small islands (Chapter 16, Box 16.2) A large number of non-climate-change stresses and disturbances, mainly driven by human activities, can impact coral reefs (Nystrom et al., 2000 Hughes et al., 2003). It has been suggested that the 'coral reef crisis' is almost certainly the result of complex and synergistic interactions among global-scale climatic stresses and local-scale, human-imposed stresses (Buddemeier et al., 2004). In a study by...

Climate Change 2007

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide an authoritative international statement of scientific understanding of climate change. The IPCC's periodic assessments of the causes, impacts and possible response strategies to climate change are the most comprehensive and up-to-date reports available on the subject, and form the standard...

Contributing Authors

Julius Atlhopheng (Botswana), Martin Beniston (Switzerland), William J. Bond (South Africa), Keith Brander (ICES Denmark UK), Harald Bugmann (Switzerland), Terry V. Callaghan (UK), Jacqueline de Chazal (Belgium), Oagile Dikinya (Australia), Antoine Guisan (Switzerland), Dimitrios Gyalistras (Switzerland), Lesley Hughes (Australia), Barney S. Kgope (South Africa), Christian K rner (Switzerland), Wolfgang Lucht (Germany), Nick J. Lunn (Canada), Ronald P. Neilson (USA), Martin Pecheux (France),...

Conclusions implications for sustainable development

An assessment of aggregate vulnerability for key sectors of the region is given in Figure 11.4, as a function of potential global warming. It synthesises relevant information in Sections 11.2 to 11.5 about current sensitivity, coping ranges, potential impacts, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It follows similar diagrams and concepts published elsewhere (Jones et al., 2007) and emulates the 'Reasons for Concern' diagram (Figure SPM-3) in the TAR Synthesis Report. Since most impact...

Conclusions

Adaptation has the potential to alleviate adverse impacts, as well as to capitalise on new opportunities posed by climate change. Since the TAR, there has been significant documentation and analysis of emerging adaptation practices. Adaptation is occurring in both the developed and developing worlds, both to climate variability and, in a limited number of cases, to observed or anticipated climate change. Adaptation to climate change is seldom undertaken in a stand-alone fashion, but as part of...

Csiro

University of New South Wales Australia National Center for Atmospheric Research USA The Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate Egypt WHO Regional Office for Europe Germany National Center for Atmospheric Research USA Mills, Scott University of Montana USA Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory USA Mimura, Nobuo Ibaraki University Japan Minns, Charles Kenneth Fisheries and Oceans Canada Canada Mirza, Monirul Qader Environment Canada Canada Bangladesh Misselhorn, Alison University of the...

Climate change adaptation and sustainable development

The AR4 recognised that synergies exist between adaptive capacity and sustainable development, and that societies which are pursuing a path of sustainable development are likely to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change. Further research is required to determine the factors which contribute to this synergy, and how policies to enhance adaptive capacity can reinforce sustainable development and vice versa 20.9 . Further understanding of adaptation is likely to require...

Canada

Alder, Jacqueline University of British Columbia Barber, David G. University of Manitoba Finnish Environment Institute Bass, Brad Beamish, Richard J. Pacific Biological Station Universit du Qu bec en Abitibi-T miscamingue Bernier, Pierre Canadian Forestry Service Brady, Michael Canadian Forest Service Brisbois, Benjamin Environment Canada Bullock, Paul University of Manitoba Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada Cawkwell, Fiona University of Alberta Cohen, Stewart J. University of...

Effective implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions

Creating synergies between adaptation and mitigation can increase the cost-effectiveness of actions and make them more attractive to potential funders and other decision-makers (see Table TS.7). However, synergies provide no guarantee that resources are used in the most efficient manner when seeking to reduce the risks of climate change. Moreover, essential actions without synergetic effects may be overlooked if the creation of synergies becomes a dominant decision criterion 18.6.1 ....

Conclusions and implications for sustainable development

In Latin America there is ample evidence of increases in extreme climatic events and climate change. Since the TAR, unusual extreme weather events have occurred in most countries, such as continuous drought flood episodes, the Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlantic, and the record hurricane season of 2005 in the Caribbean Basin. In addition, during the 20th century, temperature increases, rainfall increases and decreases, and changes in extreme events, were reported for several areas. Changes...

Cryosphere

The cryosphere reacts sensitively to present and past climate changes. The main components of the cryosphere are mountain 2 Spring green-up is a measure of the transition from winter dormancy to active spring growth. glaciers and ice caps, floating ice shelves and continental ice sheets, seasonal snow cover on land, frozen ground, sea ice and lake and river ice. In Chapter 4 of WGI, the changes in the cryosphere since the TAR are described in detail, including the description of climate and...

Development in methods

2.3.1 Thresholds and criteria for risk The risks of climate change for a given exposure unit can be defined by criteria that link climate impacts to potential outcomes. This allows a risk to be analysed and management options to be evaluated, prioritised, and implemented. Criteria are usually specified using thresholds that denote some limit of tolerable risk. A threshold marks the point where stress on an exposed system or activity, if exceeded, results in a non-linear response in that system...

Ecosystems

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress increasing risk of extinction Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality Significant extinctions. around the globe Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source as -15 -40 of ecosystems affected Ecosystem...

Current knowledge about responding to climate change

There is growing evidence since the IPCC Third Assessment of human activity to adapt to observed and anticipated climate change. For example, climate change is considered in the design of infrastructure projects such as coastal defence in the Maldives and The Netherlands, and the Confederation Bridge in Canada. Other examples include prevention of glacial lake outburst flooding in Nepal, and policies and strategies such as water management in Australia and government responses to heatwaves in,...

Index

Note * indicates the term also appears in the Glossary (Appendix I). Page numbers in bold indicate page spans for entire chapters. Page numbers in italics denote tables, figures and boxed material. A regional database, which lists all references and can be searched by region and by topic, is on the CD-ROM included in this volume. Abrupt climate change, 35, 374,375, 377-378,596 Access to technology resources, 441,791, 813, 816, 826-827 Acclimation Acclimatisation*, 246-248,557 Acidification. See...

Europe

The probability of an extreme winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal is expected to increase by up to a factor of five in parts of the UK and northern Europe by the 2080s with a doubling of CO2. ** D 12.3.1 By the 2070s, annual runoff is projected to increase in northern Europe, and decrease by up to 36 in southern Europe, with summer low flows reduced by up to 80 under IS92a. ** D 12.4.1, T12.2 The percentage of river-basin area in the severe water stress category...

Endbox 1 Definitions of key terms

Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Adaptive capacity is the...

Foreword

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 with the mandate to provide the world community with the most up-to-date and comprehensive scientific, technical and socio-economic information about climate change. The IPCC multivolume assessments have since then played a major role in motivating governments to adopt and implement policies in responding to climate change, including...

Exp

Newman et al., 2001 Volderet al., 2004 this share is expected to increase to 44 by 2020 (FAO, 2000). This section focuses on commercial forestry, including regional, national and global timber supply and demand, and associated changes in land-use, accessibility for harvesting and overall economic impacts. The ecosystem services of forests are reviewed in Chapter 4, while interactions with climate are discussed in IPCC (2007b). Key regional impacts are further detailed in Chapter 10, Section...

Germany

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Bruckner, Thomas Technical University of Berlin Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Fuentes, Ursula German Federal Environment Ministry F ssel, Hans-Martin Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Gerten, Dieter Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Glauner, Reinhold Institute for World Forestry Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus Hain, Benno Federal Environment Agency Hare, William L. Potsdam Institute for...

I

-0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 Correlation coefficients consistent with warming Cells with significant Impacts not consistent with warming r Distribution of cells that would be expected without warming The study of causal connection by spatial analysis (Set of Evidence 3 on the preceding page) follows these stages (i) it identifies 5 x 5 latitude longitude cells across the globe which exhibit significant warming, warming, cooling, and significant cooling (ii) it identifies 5 x 5 cells of...

1

Relative sea level North American coasts Figure 14.1. Observed trends in some biophysical and socio-economic indicators. Background change in annual mean temperature from 1955 to 2005 (based on the GISS2001 analysis for land from Hansen et al., 2001 and on the Hadley Reyn_V2 analysis for sea surface from Reynolds et al., 2002). Insets (a) trend in April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) across western North America from 1925 to 2002, with a linear fit from 1950 to 2002 (data from Mote, 2003), (b)...

Identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities

This section discusses what the authors have identified as possible key vulnerabilities based on the criteria specified in the Introduction and Section 19.2, and on the literature on impacts that may be considered potentially 'dangerous' in the sense of Article 2. The key vulnerabilities identified in this section are, as noted earlier, not a comprehensive list but illustrate a range of impacts relevant for policy-makers. Section 19.3.1 introduces, in condensed tabular form, key...

B2

Parameters in models of GHG cycles, radiative forcing, and the climate system. The models then sample repeatedly from the uncertainty distributions for inputs and model parameters, in order to produce a pdf of outcomes, e.g., global temperature and precipitation change. Either simple climate models (e.g., Wigley and Raper, 2001) or climate models of intermediate complexity (Forest et al., 2002) have been applied. Alternative methods of developing pdfs for emissions are described in Nakicenovic...

Argentina

Barros, Vincente Ricardo Ciudad Universitaria Bischoff, Susana Ciudad Universitaria Camilloni, In s Angela Ciudad Universitaria Carbajo, Anibal Universidad de Buenos Aires Codignotto, Jorge O. Ciudad Universitaria Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores, Comercio Internacional y Culto Centro de Ecolog a Aplicada del Litoral Perez Harguindeguy, Natalia Instituto Mulitidisciplinario de Biolog a Vegetal (UNC-CON-ICET) Rusticucci, Matilde Universidad de Buenos Aires Solman, Silvina Ciudad Universitaria...

Appendix

The table below contains detailed information on models and how the upscaling and downscaling were performed for each entry in Table 4.1 (using the same numbering scheme). In each case E indicates an empirical derivation, M indicates a modelling study, a number refers to how many GCMs (see Glossary) were used in the original literature (for GCM abbreviations used here see below), other codes indicate whether model projections included respectively, precipitation (P), ocean acidification (pH),...

Africa

Michel Boko (Benin), Isabelle Niang (Senegal), Anthony Nyong (Nigeria), Coleen Vogel (South Africa) Andrew Githeko (Kenya), Mahmoud Medany (Egypt), Balgis Osman-Elasha (Sudan), Ramadjita Tabo (Chad), Pius Yanda (Tanzania) Francis Adesina (Nigeria), Micheline Agoli-Agbo (Benin), Samar Attaher (Egypt), Lahouari Bounoua (USA), Nick Brooks (UK), Ghislain Dubois (France), Mukiri wa Githendu (Kenya), Karim Hilmi (Morocco), Alison Misselhorn (South Africa), John Morton (UK), Imoh Obioh (Nigeria),...

Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems

Cynthia Rosenzweig (USA), Gino Casassa (Chile) David J. Karoly (USA Australia), Anton Imeson (The Netherlands), Chunzhen Liu (China), Annette Menzel (Germany), Samuel Rawlins (Trinidad and Tobago), Terry L. Root (USA), Bernard Seguin (France), Piotr Tryjanowski (Poland) Tarekegn Abeku (Ethiopia), Isabelle C t (Canada), Mark Dyurgerov (USA), Martin Edwards (UK), Kristie L. Ebi (USA), Nicole Estrella (Germany), Donald L. Forbes (Canada), Bernard Francou (France), Andrew Githeko (Kenya), Vivien...

Agriculture and forestry

Although agriculture and forestry are known to be highly dependent on climate, little evidence of observed changes related to regional climate changes was noted in the TAR. This is probably due to the strong influence of non-climate factors on agriculture and, to a lesser extent, on forestry, especially management practices and technological changes, as well as market prices and policies related to subsidies (Easterling, 2003). The worldwide trends in increasing productivity (yield per hectare)...

Box 142 Climate change adds challenges to managing the Columbia River system

Current management of water in the Columbia River basin involves balancing complex, often competing, demands for hydropower, navigation, flood control, irrigation, municipal uses, and maintenance of several populations of threatened and endangered species (e.g., salmon). Current and projected needs for these uses over-commit existing supplies. Water management in the basin operates in a complex institutional setting, involving two sovereign nations (Columbia River Treaty, ratified in 1964),...

Box 173 Adaptation costs and benefits for agriculture in the Gambia

Njie et al. (2006) investigated climate change impacts and adaptation costs and benefits for cereal production in the Gambia. Under the SRES A2 scenario the study estimated that for the period 2010 to 2039, millet yield would increase by 2 to 13 . For the period 2070 to 2099 the outcome is highly dependent on projected changes in precipitation as it could range from a 43 increase to a 78 decrease in millet yield. Adaptation measures such as the adoption of improved cultivars, irrigation, and...

Box 74 Vulnerabilities to extreme weather events in megadeltas in a context of multiple stresses the case of Hurricane

It is possible to say with a high level of confidence that sustainable development in some densely populated megadeltas of the world will be challenged by climate change, not only in developing countries but in developed countries also. The experience of the U.S. Gulf Coast with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is a dramatic example of the impact of a tropical cyclone - of an intensity expected to become more common with climate change - on the demographic, social, and economic processes and stresses...

Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment

A full consideration of observed climate change is provided in the Working Group I Fourth Assessment. This part of the Working Group II Summary concerns the relationship between observed climate change and recent observed changes in the natural and human environment. The statements presented here are based largely on data sets that cover the period since 1970. The number of studies of observed trends in the physical and biological environment and their relationship to regional climate changes...

B

Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the Clean Development Mechanism Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested. A number of issues need to be settled to properly assign credit for carbon in the types of options presented by the Brazilian forest sector. These include...

Box 177 Is adaptation constrained or facilitated by individual extreme events

The policy window hypothesis refers to the phenomenon whereby adaptation actions such as policy and regulatory change are facilitated and occur directly in response to disasters, such as those associated with weather-related extreme events (Kingdon, 1995). According to this hypothesis, immediately following a disaster, the political climate may be conducive to legal, economic and social change which can begin to reduce structural vulnerabilities, for example, in such areas as mainstreaming...

Box 32 Lessons from the Dialogue on Water and Climate

The aim of the Dialogue on Water and Climate (DWC) was to raise awareness of climate implications in the water sector. The DWC initiated eighteen stakeholder dialogues, at the levels of a river basin (Lena, Aral Sea, Yellow River, San Pedro, San Juan, Thukela, Murray-Darling, and Nagoya), a nation (Netherlands and Bangladesh), and a region (Central America, Caribbean Islands, Small Valleys, West Africa, Southern Africa, Mediterranean, South Asia, South-east Asia, and Pacific Islands), to...

Inta

Tubiello, Francesco Columbia University USA IIASA Italy UNESCO Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate The Netherlands Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency The Netherlands van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal Universit catholique de Louvain Belgium Vandenberghe, Jef Vrije University The Netherlands Vaughan, David British Antarctic Survey UK Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences Russia Vicarelli, Marta Columbia University USA Italy Vilhjalmsson, Hjalmar Marine Research Institute...

Box 53 Climate change and the fisheries of the lower Mekong an example of multiple stresses on a megadelta fisheries

Fisheries are central to the lives of the people, particularly the rural poor, who live in the lower Mekong countries. Two-thirds of the basin's 60 million people are in some way active in fisheries, which represent about 10 of the GDP of Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). There are approximately 1,000 species of fish commonly found in the river, with many more marine vagrants, making it one of the most prolific and diverse faunas in the world (MRC, 2003). Recent estimates of...

Box 41 Ecological impacts of the European heatwave 2003

Anomalous hot and dry conditions affected Europe between June and mid-August, 2003 (Fink et al., 2004 Luterbacher et al., 2004 Sch r et al., 2004). Since similarly warm summers may occur at least every second year by 2080 in a Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES Nakicenovic et al, 2000) A2 world, for example (Beniston, 2004 Sch r et al., 2004), effects on ecosystems observed in 2003 provide a conservative analogue of future impacts. The major effects of the 2003 heatwave on vegetation...

Contents

Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report 1 1 Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems 79 2 New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions 133 3 Freshwater resources and their management 173 4 Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 211 5 Food, fibre and forest products 273 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 315 7 Industry, settlement and society 357 11 Australia and New Zealand 507 15 Polar regions (Arctic...

C33 Megadeltas in the Arctic

C3.3.1 Arctic megadeltas (Chapter 15, Section 15.6.2) Numerous river deltas are located along the Arctic coast and the rivers that flow to it. Of particular importance are the megadeltas of the Lena (44,000 km2) and Mackenzie (9,000 km2) rivers, which are fed by the largest Arctic rivers of

Interrelationships between adaptation and mitigation

Klein (The Netherlands Sweden), Saleemul Huq (UK Bangladesh) Fatima Denton (The Gambia), Thomas E. Downing (UK), Richard G. Richels (USA), John B. Robinson (Canada), Ferenc L. Toth (IAEA Hungary) Bonizella Biagini (GEF Italy), Sarah Burch (Canada), Kate Studd (UK), Anna Taylor (South Africa), Rachel Warren (UK), Paul Watkiss (UK), Johanna Wolf (Germany) Michael Grubb (UK), Uriel Safriel (Israel), Adelkader Allali (Morocco) Klein, R.J.T., S. Huq, F. Denton, T.E. Downing, R.G....

Box TS5 The main projected impacts for systems and sectors16

Freshwater resources and their management Water volumes stored in glaciers and snow cover are very likely to decline, reducing summer and autumn flows in regions where more than one-sixth of the world's population currently live. ** N 3.4.1 Runoff and water availability are very likely to increase at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics, including populous areas in East and South-East Asia, and decrease over much of the mid-latitudes and dry tropics, which are presently water-stressed...

Crosschapter case studies

Early in the writing of the Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment, there emerged themes of environmental importance and widespread interest which are dealt with from different perspectives by several chapters. These themes have been gathered together into 'cross-chapter case studies', which appear in their entirety at the end of the volume and are included in the CD-ROM which accompanies this volume. A 'roadmap' in Table I.3 shows where the cross-chapter case study material...

Interrelationships in a climate policy portfolio

A wide range of inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation have been identified through examples in the published literature. Taylor et al. (2006) present an inventory of published examples including full citations (available in an abbreviated form on the CD-ROM accompanying this volume as supplementary material to support the review of this chapter). The many examples have been clustered according to the type of linkage and ordered according to the entry point and scale of...

Introduction

Assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) are undertaken to inform decision-making in an environment of uncertainty. The demand for such assessments has grown significantly since the release of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), motivating researchers to expand the ranges of approaches and methods in use, and of the characterisations of future conditions (scenarios and allied products) required by those methods. This chapter describes these developments as...

Oda

Adaptation to climate change in German official development assistance This KfW project is one of the German contributions to a programme initiated by the World Bank, which is aimed at preserving the unique biodiversity of Madagascar. The programme aims to identify (i) the factors that lead to a decline in biodiversity, (ii) the underlying mechanisms that trigger these factors and (iii) the current societal and institutional arrangements that have led to these mechanisms having an adverse...

Italy

Dragoni, Walter Universita di Perugia Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Institute of Biometeorology, National Research Council Maracchi, Giampiero Institute of Biometeorology Mariotti, Annarita ENEA Climate Section Nanni, Teresa National Research Council Petriccione, Bruno National Forest Service Reichstein, Markus University of Tuscia Ribera d'Alcala, Maurizio Stazione Zoologica 'Anton Dohrn'

Key uncertainties and research priorities

Because research on vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials of human systems has lagged behind research on physical environmental systems, ecological impacts and mitigation, uncertainties dominate the subject matter of this chapter. Key issues include (a) uncertainties about climate-change impacts at a relatively fine-grained geographic and sectoral scale, both harmful and beneficial, which undermine efforts to assess potential benefits from investments in adaptation (b) improved...

New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions

Carter (Finland), Roger N. Jones (Australia), Xianfu Lu (UNDP China) Suruchi Bhadwal (India), Cecilia Conde (Mexico), Linda O. Mearns (USA), Brian C. O'Neill (IIASA USA), Mark D.A. Rounsevell (Belgium), Monika B. Zurek (FAO Germany) Jacqueline de Chazal (Belgium), St phane Hallegatte (France), Milind Kandlikar (Canada), Malte Meinshausen (USA Germany), Robert Nicholls (UK), Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Anthony Patt (IIASA USA), Sarah Raper (UK), Kimmo Ruosteenoja (Finland), Claudia...

Nutrient Access

> Direct impact on agricultural zones effecting incomes and jobs, and the macro economy, which in turn shape livelihoods in a number of ways, e.g. forms of social protection (3). Direct effect on human health and susceptibility to diseases such as malaria and HIV AIDS which undermine livelihoods capability and food security (4). > Indirect alterations to socio-economic aspects of livelihoods, food systems and development processes through human responses e.g. land-use and adaptation...

Costs and valuation of ecosystem goods and services

There is growing interest in developing techniques for environmental accounting. To that end, definitions of ecosystem goods and services are currently fluid. For example, ecosystem services accrue to society in return for investing in or conserving natural capital (Heal, 2007), or ecosystem services are ultimately the end products of nature, the aspects of nature that people make choices about (Boyd, 2006). Definitions aside, all humans clearly rely on ecosystem services (Reid et al., 2005)....

Largerscale aggregation and attribution to anthropogenic climate change

Characteristics of the data used in the aggregation and attribution assessment of Section 1.4. 1. Database constructed of observations from studies, including information such as a. category and region (according to WGII Chapters), b. longitude and latitude of study, d. direction of change, consistent or not consistent with warming, g. whether or not land use was a driving factor. 2. Criteria for inclusion of study in synthesis assessment published peer-reviewed study,...

Polar regions Arctic and Antarctic

Vaughan (UK) Terry Callaghan (Sweden UK), Christopher Furgal (Canada), Harvey Marchant (Australia), Terry D. Prowse (Canada), Hjalmar Vilhjalmsson (Iceland), John E. Walsh (USA) Torben R. Christensen (Sweden), Donald L. Forbes (Canada), Frederick E. Nelson (USA), Mark Nuttall (Canada UK), James D. Reist (Canada), George A. Rose (Canada), Jef Vandenberghe (The Netherlands), Fred J. Wrona (Canada) Roger Barry (USA), Robert Jefferies (Canada), John Stone...

L

See El Ni o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Lakes, 233-234, 664 chemistry, 91 epishelf, 90 observed changes, 28, 81,90, 91,97, 98,177 See also Freshwater resources and management Glacial lakes Thermal expansion Thermal stratification Land cover change, 49, 84, 816 carbon balance and, 793 direct and indirect effects, 84 in Latin America, 53, 590 projections, 157 Land degradation, 229,518-519,520 See also Erosion Land-use change,49, 84 direct and indirect effects, 84 effects on ecosystems,...

Key conclusions and future directions

Climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) assessment has now moved far beyond its early status as a speculative, academic endeavour. As reported elsewhere in this volume, climate change is already under way, impacts are being felt, and some adaptation is occurring. This is propelling CCIAV assessment from being an exclusively research-oriented activity towards analytical frameworks that are designed for practical decision-making. These comprise a limited set of approaches...

Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change but also on development pathway

An important advance since the Third Assessment has been the completion of impacts studies for a range of different development pathways, taking into account not only projected climate change but also projected social and economic changes. Most have been based on characterisations of population and income levels drawn from the SRES scenarios 2.4 . These studies show that the projected impacts of climate change can vary greatly due to the development pathway assumed. For example, there may be...

Impacts under different assumptions about future development pathways

Most AR4 studies of future climate change are based on a small number of studies using SRES scenarios, especially the A2 and B2 families 2.3.1 . This has allowed some limited, but incomplete, characterisation of the potential range of futures and their impacts see Section 4 on key future impacts in all core chapters . to describe the future evolution of the world under different and wide-ranging assumptions about how societies, governance, technology, economies will develop in future at the...

Largerscale aggregation

This section evaluates studies that use techniques that aggregate from individual observations at sites to regional, continental and global scales. Meta-analysis is a statistical method of combining quantitative findings from many studies investigating similar factors for the purpose of finding a general result. The methods used in the various studies, however, need not be similar. The criteria for inclusion of studies in a meta-analysis are determined a priori, and rigorously followed to avoid...

North America

North America has considerable adaptive capacity, which has been deployed effectively at times, but this capacity has not always protected its population from adverse impacts of climate variability and extreme weather events (very high confidence). Damage and loss of life from Hurricane Katrina in August 2005 illustrate the limitations of existing adaptive capacity to extreme events. Traditions and institutions in North America have encouraged a decentralised response framework where adaptation...

Key uncertainties research gaps and priorities

This assessment shows that the level of knowledge is not consistent with the potential severity of the problem of climate change and coastal zones. While knowledge is not adequate in any aspect, uncertainty increases as we move from the natural sub-system to the human sub-system, with the largest uncertainties concerning their interaction (Figure 6.1). An understanding of this interaction is critical to a comprehensive understanding of human vulnerability in coastal and low-lying areas and...

Joint attribution

Joint attribution involves attribution of significant changes in a natural or managed system to regional temperature changes, and attribution of a significant fraction of the regional temperature change to human activities. This has been performed using studies with climate models to assess observed changes in several different physical and biological systems. An assessment of the relationship between significant observed changes from Section 1.3 and significant regional temperature changes is...

Singular Events

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes1 Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes 2 About 20 to 30 species at increasingly high risk of extinction 4 Mqjor extinctions around the globe 4 Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk7 Low latitudes Decreases for some cereals Increases for some cereals9 Mid to high latitudes Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source, as 8 -15 -40 of ecosystems...

Definitions of key terms

Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Adaptation is the...

Opportunities cobenefits and challenges for adaptation

This section extends some of the ideas outlined in Najam et al. (2003) they focus on mainstreaming climate-change adaptation into planning and development decisions with particular emphasis on participatory processes. 20.8.1 Challenges and opportunities for mainstreaming adaptation into national, regional and local development processes An international opportunity for mainstreaming adaptation into national, regional and local development processes has recently emerged with the community...