Box 81 The European heatwave 2003 impacts and adaptation

In August 2003, a heatwave in France caused more than 14,800 deaths (Figure 8.2). Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, the Netherlands and the UK all reported excess mortality during the heatwave period, with total deaths in the range of 35,000 (Hemon and Jougla, 2004 Martinez-Navarro et al., 2004 Michelozzi et al., 2004 Vandentorren et al., 2004 Conti et al., 2005 Grize et al., 2005 Johnson et al., 2005). In France, around 60 of the heatwave deaths...

Current sensitivity and vulnerability

Systematic reviews of empirical studies provide the best evidence for the relationship between health and weather or climate factors, but such formal reviews are rare. In this section, we assess the current state of knowledge of the associations between weather climate factors and health outcome(s) for the population(s) concerned, either directly or through multiple pathways, as outlined in Figure 8.1. The figure shows not only the pathways by which health can be affected by climate change, but...

Interrelationships between adaptation and mitigation

Klein (The Netherlands Sweden), Saleemul Huq (UK Bangladesh) Fatima Denton (The Gambia), Thomas E. Downing (UK), Richard G. Richels (USA), John B. Robinson (Canada), Ferenc L. Toth (IAEA Hungary) Bonizella Biagini (GEF Italy), Sarah Burch (Canada), Kate Studd (UK), Anna Taylor (South Africa), Rachel Warren (UK), Paul Watkiss (UK), Johanna Wolf (Germany) Michael Grubb (UK), Uriel Safriel (Israel), Adelkader Allali (Morocco) This supplementary material should be cited as Taylor, A.,...

New developments in approaches

2.2.1 Frameworks for CCIAV assessment Although the following approaches and methods were all described in the TAR (Ahmad et al., 2001), their range of application in assessments has since been significantly expanded. Factors that distinguish a particular approach include the purpose of an assessment, its focus, the methods available, and how uncertainty is managed. A major aim of CCIAV assessment approaches is to manage, rather than overcome, uncertainty (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002),...

Small islands

Nobuo Mimura (Japan), Leonard Nurse (Barbados) Roger McLean (Australia), John Agard (Trinidad and Tobago), Lino Briguglio (Malta), Penehuro Lefale (Samoa), Rolph Payet (Seychelles), Graham Sem (Papua New Guinea) Will Agricole (Seychelles), Kristie Ebi (USA), Donald Forbes (Canada), John Hay (New Zealand), Roger Pulwarty (USA), Taito Nakalevu (Fiji), Kiyoshi Takahashi (Japan) Gillian Cambers (Puerto Rico), Ulric Trotz (Belize) Mimura, N., L. Nurse, R.F. McLean, J. Agard, L. Briguglio, P. Lefale,...

Box 11 Retreat of Chacaltaya and its effects case study of a small disappearing glacier in Bolivia

The observed general glacier retreat in the warming tropical Andes has increased significantly in recent decades (Francou et al., 2005). Small-sized glaciers are particularly vulnerable in warmer climates, with many of them having already disappeared in several parts of the world during the last century. The Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia (16 S) is a typical example of a disappearing small glacier, whose area in 1940 was 0.22 km2, and which has currently reduced (in 2005) to less than 0.01 km2...

Table of Contents

Executive 12.1.1 Summary of knowledge from the Third Assessment 12.2 Current 12.2.1 Climate factors and 12.2.2 Non-climate factors and 12.2.3 Current adaptation and adaptive capacity 547 12.3 Assumptions about future trends 547 12.3.1 Climate 12.3.2 Non-climate 12.4 Key future impacts and vulnerabilities 549 12.4.1 Water 12.4.2 Coastal and marine 12.4.3 Mountains and sub-Arctic regions 551 12.4.4 Forests, shrublands and grasslands 552 12.4.5 Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems 553 12.4.7...

References

ABARE, 2004 Securing Australia's Energy Future. Australian Bureau of Resource Economics, Canberra, 104 pp. ABARE, 2005 Australian Fisheries Statistics 2004. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, 65 pp. http www.abareconomics Abbs, D.J., 2004 A high-resolution modelling study of the effect of climate change on the intensity of extreme rainfall events. Proc. Staying Afloat Floodplain Management Authorities of NSW44th Annual Conference, Floodplain Management...

Info

Strategy for promotions and development of renewable technologies in Bangladesh experience from Garmeen Shakti This paper discusses experiences from the renewable energy programme of Grameen Shakti (GS), which is aimed to provide energy to rural areas. GS has already spent 3 years in marketing solar home systems in rural Bangladesh. Within this short period, GS gathered a lot of experience in marketing the solar home system. Up to July 1999, GS had sold 1147 solar home systems and the installed...

Location Kassenberg Bohn

Vincent, 2005 Uncertainty in adaptive capacity. C. R. Geosci, 337,399-410. Adger, W.N., T.A. Benjaminsen, K. Brown and H. Svarstad, 2001 Advancing a political ecology of global environmental discourses. Dev. Change, 32,687-715. Adger, W.N., S. Huq, K. Brown, D. Conway and M. Hulme, 2003 Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog. Dev. Stud,, 3,179-195. Adger, W.N., N. Brooks, M. Kelly, S. Bentham and S. Eriksen, 2004 New indicators of vulnerability and...

Box 182 Analysis of stabilisation scenarios

The WGIII AR4, in Chapter 3 (Section 3.5.2), looks across findings of the WGI and WGII AR4 to relate the long-term emissions scenarios literature to climate-change impact risks at different levels of global mean temperature change based on key vulnerabilities (as defined in Chapter 19). It builds on the WGI AR4 findings, which outline the probabilities of exceeding various global mean temperatures at different concentration levels (Tables 3.9 and 3.10 in Fisher et al., 2007). The relationships...

Box 143 North American cities integrate impacts across multiple scales and sectors

Impacts of climate change in the metropolitan regions of North America will be similar in many respects. Los Angeles, New York and Vancouver are used to illustrate some of the affected sectors, including infrastructure, energy and water supply. Adaptation will need to be multi-decadal and multi-dimensional, and is already beginning (see Section 14.5). Since most large North American cities are on tidewater, rivers or both, effects of climate change will likely include sea-level rise (SLR) and...

Current sensitivityvulnerability

A frequent objective of human societies is to reduce their sensitivity to weather and climate, for example, by controlling the climate in buildings within which people live, shop and work or by controlling the channels and flows of rivers or the configurations of sea coasts. Recent experience with weather variability, however, reminds us that - at least at feasible levels of investment and technological development - human control over climate-related aspects of nature can be limited (see Box...

Box 174 Adaptation costs and benefits in the water management sector of South Africa

Callaway et al. (2006) provide estimates of water management adaptation costs and benefits in a case study of the Berg River basin in South Africa. Adaptation measures investigated include the establishment of an efficient water market and an increase in water storage capacity through the construction of a dam. Using a programming model which linked modules of urban and farm water demand to a hydrology module, the welfare related to water use (value for urban and farm use minus storage and...

Box 183 Mainstreaming

The links between greenhouse-gas emissions, mitigation of climate change and development have been the subject of intense study (for an overview see Markandya and Halsnss, 2002). More recently the links between climate-change adaptation and development have been brought to light (Section 18.6). As these links have become apparent, the term 'mainstreaming' has emerged to describe the integration of policies and measures that address climate change into development planning and ongoing sectoral...

Box 132 Adaptation capacity of the South American highlands preColombian communities

Robert Smithson

The subsistence of indigenous civilisations in the Americas relied on the resources cropped under the prevailing climate conditions around their settlements. In the highlands of today's Latin America, one of the most critical limitations affecting development was, as currently is, the irregular distribution of water. This situation is the result of the particularities of the atmospheric processes and extremes, the rapid runoff in the deep valleys, and the changing soil conditions. The tropical...

Introduction importance scope and uncertainty Third Assessment Report summary and methods

5.1.1 Importance of agriculture, forestry and fisheries At present, 40 of the Earth's land surface is managed for cropland and pasture (Foley et al., 2005). Natural forests cover another 30 (3.9 billion ha) of the land surface with just 5 of the natural forest area (FAO, 2000) providing 35 of global roundwood. In developing countries, nearly 70 of people live in rural areas where agriculture is the largest supporter of livelihoods. Growth in agricultural incomes in developing countries fuels...

Implications for risk hazard and disaster management

The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990 to 1999) led to a fundamental shift in the way disasters are viewed away from the notion that disasters were temporary disruptions to be managed by humanitarian responses and technical interventions and towards a recognition that disasters are a function of both natural and human drivers (ISDR, 2004 UNDP, 2004). The concept of disaster risk management has evolved it is defined as the systematic management of administrative decisions,...

Assessment of adaptation capacity options and constraints

17.3.1 Elements of adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change, and includes adjustments in both behaviour and in resources and technologies. The presence of adaptive capacity has been shown to be a necessary condition for the design and implementation of effective adaptation strategies so as to reduce the likelihood and the magnitude of harmful outcomes resulting from climate change (Brooks and Adger,...

Adaptation practices options and constraints

Challenges to adapt to variations and changes in environmental conditions have been a part of every phase of human history, and human societies have generally been highly adaptable (Ausubel and Langford, 1997). Adaptations may be anticipatory or reactive, self-induced and decentralised or dependent on centrally-initiated policy changes and social collaboration, gradual and evolutionary or rooted in abrupt changes in settlement patterns or economic activity. Historically, adaptations to climate...

Adaptation sectorspecific practices options and constraints

10.5.1 Agriculture and food security Many studies (Parry, 2002 Ge et al., 2002 Droogers, 2004 Lin et al., 2004 Vlek et al., 2004 Wang et al., 2004a Zalikhanov, 2004 Lal, 2007 Batima et al., 2005c) on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and possible adaptation options have been published since the TAR. More common adaptation measures that have been identified in the above-mentioned studies are summarised in Table 10.8. Generally, these measures are intended to increase adaptive capacity...

Cesdac

University of the Philippines The Philippines Leemans, Rik University of Wageningen The Netherlands World Meteorological Organization Samoa Lemos, Maria-Carmen University of Michigan USA Brazil Lewis, Nancy University of Hawaii USA Li, Shuangcheng Peking University China Li, Congxian Tongji University China Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Vietnam Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science China China Water Information Centre China Liverman, Diana Oxford University UK Lorenzoni, Irene...

Gfdl R30

(< -30 Q-20 to-10 Qotoio Q20 to 30 H -30 to -20 -10 too 10 to 20 > 30 Change less than one standard deviation shown in grey Figure 3.3. Change in average annual runoff by the 2050s under the SRES A2 emissions scenario and different climate models (Arnell, 2003a). Figure 3.4 shows the mean runoff change until 2050 for the SRES A1B scenario from an ensemble of twenty-four climate model runs (from twelve different GCMs) (Milly et al., 2005). Almost all model runs agree at least with respect to...

Box 72 Environmental migration

Migration, usually temporary and often from rural to urban areas, is a common response to calamities such as floods and famines (Mortimore, 1989), and large numbers of displaced people are a likely consequence of extreme events. Their numbers could increase, and so could the likelihood of their migration becoming permanent, if such events increase in frequency. Yet, disaggregating the causes of migration is highly problematic, not least since individual migrants may have multiple motivations...

C22 Future impacts on coral reefs

C2.2.1 Are coral reefs endangered by climate change (Chapter 4, Box 4.4) Reefs are habitat for about a quarter of all marine species and are the most diverse among marine ecosystems (Roberts et al., 2002 Buddemeier et al., 2004). They underpin local shore protection, fisheries, tourism (see Chapter 6 Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2000 Cesar et al., 2003 Willig et al., 2003 Hoegh-Guldberg, 2004,2005) and, although supplying only about 2-5 of the global fisheries harvest, comprise a critical subsistence...

Assumptions about future trends in climate food forestry and fisheries

Declining global population growth (UN, 2004), rapidly rising urbanisation, shrinking shares of agriculture in the overall formation of incomes and fewer people dependent on agriculture are among the key factors likely to shape the social setting in which climate change is likely to evolve. These factors will determine how climate change affects agriculture, how rural populations can cope with changing climate conditions, and how these will affect food security. Any assessment of climate change...

Adaptation constraints and opportunities

The covariant mix of climate stresses and other factors in Africa means that for many in Africa adaptation is not an option but a necessity (e.g., Thornton et al., 2006). A growing cohort of studies is thus emerging on adaptation to climate variability and change in Africa, examples of which are given below (see also Chapter 18). Owing to constraints of space, not all cases nor all details can be provided here. A range of factors including wealth, technology, education, information, skills,...

Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past

Past emissions are estimated to involve some unavoidable warming (about a further 0.6 C by the end of the century relative to 1980-1999) even if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remain at 2000 levels (see WGI AR4). There are some impacts for which adaptation is the only available and Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1980-1999 ( C) 12 3 4 SRES AR4 WG 1 multiple sources B1 B2 A1T

TS3 Methods and scenarios

TS.3.1 Developments in methods available to researchers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Since the Third Assessment (TAR), the need for improved decision analysis has motivated an expansion in the number of climate-change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) approaches and methods in use. While scientific research aims to reduce uncertainty, decision-making aims to manage uncertainty by making the best possible use of the available knowledge 2.2.7, 2.3.4 . This...

Costs and other socioeconomic aspects

The costs, benefits and other socio-economic consequences of climate variability and change for coastal and low-lying areas have been determined for many aspects, including heat stress and changes in plant and animal metabolism (see Chapter 4, Section 4.2 and Box 4.4), disease (see Chapter 8, Section 8.5), Table 6.8. Key hotspots of societal vulnerability in coastal zones. Table 6.8. Key hotspots of societal vulnerability in coastal zones. Coastal areas where there are substantial barriers to...

Mhu

Adaptation and mitigation trade-offs or synergies Processes and consequences for adaptation and mitigation GHG concentrations and global climate change Climate change impacts, damages avoided and residual risk Development status Illustrative examples organised according to the scale of action Awareness of limits to adaptation motivates negotiations on mitigation CDM trades provide funds for adaptation through surcharge Assessment of costs and benefits in A and M in setting targets for...

Crosschapter case studies

These cross-chapter case studies collect together material from the chapters of the underlying report. A roadmap showing the location of this material is provided in the Introduction to the report. When referencing partial material from within a specific case study, please cite the chapter in which it originally appears. When referencing a whole case study, please cite as Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., 2007 Cross-chapter case study. In...

Box 84 Climate change migratory birds and infectious diseases

Several species of wild birds can act as biological or mechanical carriers of human pathogens as well as of vectors of infectious agents (Olsen et al., 1995 Klich et al., 1996 Gylfe etal.,2000 Friend et al., 2001 Pereira et al., 2001 Broman et al., 2002 Moore et al., 2002 Niskanen et al., 2003 Rappole and Hubalek, 2003 Reed et al., 2003 Fallacara et al., 2004 Hubalek, 2004 Krauss et al., 2004). Many of these birds are migratory species that seasonally fly long distances through different...

Key uncertainties confidence levels unknowns research gaps and priorities

While much is being discovered about climate variability and change, the impacts and possible responses to such changes result in significant areas that require more concerted effort and learning. 9.8.1 Uncertainties, confidence levels and unknowns While climate models are generally consistent regarding the direction of warming in Africa, projected changes in precipitation are less consistent. The role of land-use and land-cover change (i.e., land architecture in various guises) emerges as a...

Box 91 Environmental changes on Mt Kilimanjaro

There is evidence that climate is modifying natural mountain ecosystems via complex interactions and feedbacks including, for example, solar radiation micro-scale processes on Mt. Kilimanjaro (Molg and Hardy, 2004 Lemke et al., 2007). Other drivers of change are also modifying environments on the mountain, including fire, vegetation changes and human modifications (Hemp, 2005). During the 20th century, the areal extent of Mt. Kilimanjaro's ice fields decreased by about 80 (Figure 9.2). It has...

C32 Megadeltas in Asia

C3.2.1 Megadeltas in Asia (Chapter 10, Section 10.6.1, Table 10.10) There are eleven megadeltas with an area greater than 10,000 km2 (Table C3.1) in the coastal zone of Asia that are continuously being formed by rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau (Milliman and Meade, 1983 Penland and Kulp, 2005) These megadeltas are vital to Asia because they are home to millions of people, especially in the seven megacities that are located in these deltas (Nicholls, 1995 Woodroffe et al., 2006). The...

Box 62 Examples of extreme water level simulations for impact studies

Chittagong Water Level

Although inundation by increases in mean sea level over the 21st century and beyond will be a problem for unprotected low-lying areas, the most devastating impacts are likely to be associated with changes in extreme sea levels resulting from the passage of storms (e.g., Gornitz et al., 2002), especially as more intense tropical and extra-tropical storms are expected (Meehl et al., 2007). Simulations show that future changes are likely to be spatially variable, and a high level of detail can be...

Case studies

9.6.1 Food insecurity the role of climate variability, change and other stressors It has long been recognised that climate variability and change have an impact on food production, (e.g., Mendelsohn et al., 2000a, b Devereux and Maxwell, 2001 Fischer et al., 2002 Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003), although the extent and nature of this impact is as yet uncertain. Broadly speaking, food security is less seen in terms of sufficient global and national agricultural food production, and more in...

Key future impacts and vulnerabilities

The impacts of climate change have been projected for a limited range of health determinants and outcomes for which the epidemiologic evidence base is well developed. The studies reviewed in Section 8.4.1 used quantitative and qualitative approaches to project the incidence and geographical range of health outcomes under different climate and socio-economic scenarios. Section 8.4.2 assesses the possible consequences of climate-change-related health impacts on particularly vulnerable populations...

Box 63 Deltas and megadeltas hotspots for vulnerability

Tortuguero National Park Map

Deltas, some of the largest sedimentary deposits in the world, are widely recognised as highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly sea-level rise and changes in runoff, as well as being subject to stresses imposed by human modification of catchment and delta plain land use. Most deltas are already undergoing natural subsidence that results in accelerated rates of relative sea-level rise above the global average. Many are impacted by the effects of water extraction and...

TS4 Current knowledge about future impacts

This section summarises the main projected impacts in each system and sector (Section TS.4.1) and region (Section TS.4.2) over this century,13 judged in terms of relevance for people and the environment. It assumes that climate change is not mitigated, and that adaptive capacity has not been enhanced by climate policy. All global temperature changes are expressed relative to 1990 unless otherwise stated.14 The impacts stem from changes in climate and sea-level changes associated with global...

C34 Case study of Hurricane Katrina

C3.4.1 Hurricane Katrina and coastal ecosystem services in the Mississippi delta (Chapter 6, Box 6.4) Whereas an individual hurricane event cannot be attributed to climate change, it can serve to illustrate the consequences for ecosystem services if the intensity and or frequency of such events were to increase in the future. One result of Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in coastal Louisiana on 29 August 2005, was the loss of 388 km2 of coastal wetlands, levees and islands that flank New...

Identify modifications for future adaptive capacity

The main steps of a community vulnerability and adaptation assessment and action approach. Several pilot communities in the Cook Islands, Fiji, Samoa and Vanuatu are already using this approach to analyse their options and decide on the best course of action to address their vulnerability and adaptation needs. drivers of development (Kerr, 2005). In this context, the development of adaptation measures in response to climate change may provide an appropriate avenue to integrate both...