And Projection During Project Development Phase

The project development or pre-implementation phase requires estimation and projection of changes in carbon stocks over the selected project area and period in the "without-project" scenario. This is also referred to as ex ante calculation of projected changes in carbon stocks. These projected stocks and changes need to be reported at the project development phase to estimate and project the impact of the proposed project activities on carbon stock gains.

7.2.3.1 Approach 1, Based on Default Value

The following steps could be adopted for ex ante calculation of carbon stock changes in the baseline scenario using the default value-based approach:

Step 1: Define the project boundary covering all the parcels of land to be brought under the project activities (refer to Chapter 8). Step 2: Stratify the project area into homogeneous land classes based on tenure, soil, topography and baseline vegetation status under the baseline scenario conditions before the implementation of the project (refer to Chapter 8). Step 3: Stratify the project area by overlaying the homogeneous land classes obtained in step 2 with the proposed project activities (e.g. planting different species, different grazing practices and different forest management practices). Step 4: Define and demarcate the strata (see Section 10.3 for strata definition) dedicated to different project activities based on step 3 for the base year (t0) incorporating the current land-use status (step 2) and proposed project activities (step 3) and estimate the area under each stratum such as:

o Stratum 1 comprising degraded grassland proposed for short-rotation afforestation but subjected to fuelwood extraction o Stratum 2 comprising degraded grassland proposed for short-rotation afforestation but subjected only to regulated grazing o Stratum 3 comprising cropland proposed for long-rotation afforestation

Step 5: Select the carbon pools relevant to each of the stratum defined in step 4. Step 6: Estimate the carbon stocks for all the selected strata under the baseline conditions for the base year t0, using default values available from other studies, reports and programmes in the region or from a published database.

Step 7: Select one of the following two approaches to estimation and projection of carbon stock change under the baseline scenario:

o Fixed carbon stock o Adjustable carbon stock

Step 8a: If the fixed-carbon stock approach is used, estimate the stocks of different carbon pools only once for the base year t0, assuming that the stocks will not change over the project period

Step 8b: If the adjustable-carbon stock approach is used, estimate the carbon stocks at different selected periods for different pools using default values for the change in carbon stocks. Step 9 Based on current and historical land-use data and any ongoing or proposed programmes for the project area, project future land-use systems for different periods, for example, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years for each stratum. Step 10: Use future land-use pattern for a selected year, for example, t5, t10, t15, tn and use the default values for carbon stocks

Step 11: Estimate carbon stock for the future period (5-10 or 20 years or t5, t10, t20, respectively) for all the land strata defined in step 4 using default data for the soil carbon and above-ground biomass carbon pools. Step 12: Calculate the difference between the carbon stocks considering all project land-use systems and area for the year tn (projected period) and year t0 (base year, the project starting date) using the following formula:

Change in carbon stock in the baseline or without-project

scenario (AC)

where AC = change in carbon stock in tC/ha, Cn = carbon stock in year tn (tC/ha), Ca = carbon stock in base year t0 (tC/ha). The value of AC could be positive or negative, but is most often negative, indicating reduction in carbon stocks.

7.2.3.2 Approach 2, Based on Field Measurement of Carbon Stocks through Cross-Sectional Studies

The procedure involves the same steps as those described for Approach 1, except that the carbon stock values for the current and projected land-use systems are obtained by field measurements through cross-sectional studies. Carbon stocks should be estimated for the base year t0 and a projected future year tn.

(i) Carbon stocks for the base year tg could be estimated using the following steps during the project development phase:

Steps 1-5: are identical to those in the default value method described earlier to identify and demarcate different land strata. Step 6: Using methods and procedures given in Chapters 10-13 (for different carbon pools), estimate the total carbon stock for year t0 for each land stratum in the project area based on measurements using "plot method", described in Chapter 10.

(ii) Cartoon stocks for the future year tn could be estimated using the following steps during the project development phase. This approach is necessary only if changes in land use or management projected under the baseline scenario include those such as degraded forest or grassland converted to cropland:

Step 1: Derive the future land-use systems and areas for each of the stratum under the baseline scenario based on historical data, participatory rural appraisal (PRA, Chapter 8) and any ongoing or proposed programme for the time period selected (t5, t10, t15, t). Step 2: Select relevant carbon pools for the future land-use systems, which may be similar to or different from the pools for the current land-use system strata. Step 3: Obtain future carbon stock data for each projected land-use system by identifying land areas subjected to conditions leading to the new land-use system for the period tn:

o Locate areas that have experienced the projected land-use changes (e.g. forest land converted to grassland or cropland) or changes in management practices (e.g. grazing) within the project boundary or nearby areas outside the project boundary for the period selected o Estimate carbon stocks in areas subjected to land-use or management practice change in the past using methods and procedures given in Chapters 10-13 o Estimate and calculate total carbon stocks considering the projected land-use systems and area

Step 4: Estimate change in carbon stocks in the baseline scenario using the following procedure:

o Estimate total carbon stock for base year (year " t0")

o Estimate total carbon stock for a future project year such as t5, t10 or t20 using the steps described above o Estimate the change in carbon stock between the future project year and base year using equation provided in Section 7.2.3.1

Project Management Made Easy

Project Management Made Easy

What you need to know about… Project Management Made Easy! Project management consists of more than just a large building project and can encompass small projects as well. No matter what the size of your project, you need to have some sort of project management. How you manage your project has everything to do with its outcome.

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