Figures

1.1. (a) Schematic representation of the components of the coupled carbon-climate-human system and the links among them; (b) two complementary perspectives on human drivers of carbon emissions 3

1.2. Effects of inertia in the coupled carbon-climate-human system 5

1.3. The energy gap, showing the growing difference between the emissions projected in a widely used scenario (IS92a) and the emissions required to stabilize the atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm 9

2.1. The distribution of sources for the world energy system in 2000 21

2.2. A summary of the sources, quantities, lifetimes, and consequences of carbon containing non-CO2 gases in the atmosphere 28

2.3. Historical composition of the world energy system, in (a) percent contributions and (b) energy contributions in EJ 36

3.1. Cumulative fossil-fuel emissions and their redistribution among the three major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle over the period from 1920 to 2100 as modeled by two Earth system models 47

3.2. Vulnerability of the carbon pools in the 21st century 48

3.3. Global carbon cycle, its sink potential, and its vulnerability in the 21st century 70

4.1. Carbon emissions, 1990-2100 78

4.2. Effects of energy intensity improvements on energy demands in SRES illustrative scenarios 80

4.3. Range of non-carbon-emitting energy supply in SRES illustrative scenarios 81

4.4. Global carbon dioxide emissions in billion tons of carbon (PgC) per year since 1850 to present, plus emissions trajectories for the six SRES illustrative scenarios 82

4.5. WRE CO2 emissions trajectories for five alternative CO2 concentrations 83

4.6. The "gap" for five alternative CO2 concentrations 84

4.7. Comparison of emissions trajectories consistent with various atmospheric CO2 concentrations 89

4.8. Relationship between present discounted costs for stabilizing the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere at alternative levels 89

4.9. (a) Allowed carbon emission for the WRE 550 pathway where atmospheric CO2 is stabilized at 550 ppm as simulated with the Bern CC model;

(b) Cumulative carbon emissions allowance for the two WRE stabilization pathways leading to stabilization at 450 ppm and 1,000 ppm 92

4.10. Impact of a possible collapse of the formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) on the oceanic carbon uptake, and hence the carbon emission allowance to meet a stabilization target 97

5.1. Cost of electricity presented as function of CO2 emissions per unit energy produced 112

5.2. Representation of model results for direct injection of carbon into the ocean at three depths under two different boundary conditions 117

6.1. Scenarios for directly human-induced C flux, compared with approximate stabilization trajectories 136

6.2. Effects of economic, environmental, and social-institutional factors on the mitigation potential of a carbon management strategy 140

6.3. Characteristics of the main SRES marker scenario families 152

7.1. The evolution of proxies for local temperature in Greenland and Antarctica and the atmospheric concentration of the two greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 over the last glacial-interglacial transition 167

7.2. The evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration and Greenland and Antarctic temperature, as indicated by 8 18O, during the period from 70 ka BP to 20 ka BP 170

7.3. Holocene variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration, from measurements on air entrapped in ice from Taylor Dome, Antarctica, and from Dome Concordia 173

7.4. Relationship between Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature change, climate—carbon cycle feedbacks, and variations in atmospheric CO2 176 2

8.1. Annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration difference between the Mauna Loa and the South Pole stations shown against interhemispheric difference in annual fossil-fuel emissions 192

8.2. Annual mean latitudinal land-ocean breakdown of non-fossil-fuel carbon sources as determined in the TRANSCOM inversion intercomparison study of Gurney et al. 2002 194

8.3. Time series of surface-atmosphere fluxes integrated over five continental areas and over three oceanic latitudinal bands 198

8.4. Time series of anomalous non-fossil-fuel net land-atmosphere flux from the inversion compared with fire counts compiled by the European Space Agency, both aggregated over two continental areas 199

10.1. Global feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system 219

10.2. Cumulative carbon budgets for the IPSL and Hadley coupled simulations 221

11.1. Global carbon emissions: Historical development and scenarios 227

11.2. Global population projections: Historical development and scenarios 229

11.3. Global economic development measured by gross world product (GWP) measured at market exchange rates: Historical development and scenarios 231

11.4. GWP and population growth: Historical development and scenarios 232

11.5. Global primary energy requirements: Historical development and scenarios 233

11.6. Primary energy intensity versus GDP per capita measured at market exchange rates: Regional historical developments 234

11.7. Global decarbonization of primary energy: Historical development and scenarios 235

11.8. Global decarbonization and decline of energy intensity (1990-2100) 237

12.1. Sea-air CO2 flux by latitude band 244

12.2. Meridional distribution of ocean fCO2 measured in January 2000 and August 2000 in the southwestern Indian Ocean (OISO cruises) 246

12.3. Global mean current inventory and potential maximum of anthropogenic carbon for an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 368 ppm 248

13.1. Accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and fossil-fuel emissions 259

13.2. Anomalous sea-air fluxes of CO2 in the equatorial Pacific 260

13.3. Marginal airborne fraction vs. CO2 release 266

14.1. Relationships between terrestrial, oceanic, and atmospheric carbon pools 280

14.2. Estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance 286

14.3. A highly simplified model of the terrestrial carbon cycle 291

15.1. Relation between carbon content in the top meter of soil and mean annual temperature 296

15.2. Seasonal variation in net CO2 exchange of a temperate deciduous forest 298 2

15.3. Impact of length of growing season on NEE of temperate broad-leaved forests 300

15.4. Seasonal variation of net CO2 exchange of temperate, boreal, and alpine conifer forests 301

15.5. Seasonal variation of net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a tropical forest growing in the Amazon near Manaus, Brazil 303

15.6. Seasonal variation of NEP of Mediterranean/subtropical woodland ecosystems and the environmental drivers that perturb the carbon fluxes 305

15.7. Seasonal variation in net CO2 exchange of a Mediterranean annual grassland and a temperate continental C4 grassland 306

15.8. Seasonal variation of net CO2 exchange of an agricultural crop 307

15.9. Seasonal variation in net CO2 exchange of a northern wetland and tundra 309

16.1. "An example of net changes in ecosystem carbon stocks over time" 318

16.2. Age class distribution of the European forests (140 million ha in 30 countries) in 1990 319

16.3. Comparison of the temporal development of the annual flux (positive = sink) in the total system of forest biomass, soils, and products for beech, Norway spruce, and the natural regeneration system 321

16.4. Temporal evolution of the net annual flux of carbon (sink = positive) for six global regional case studies 323

16.5. A possible approach for separating direct and indirect effects 325

17.1. Major reservoirs and pathways of atmospheric CO2 in fluvial systems 330

17.2. Scenarios of the fluxes of carbon through fluvial systems relative to atmospheric CO2 337

18.1. Schematic diagram for the annual carbon budget (in 1012 mol PgC y-1) for the continental margins of the world 344

18.2. Organic carbon cycle in global coastal oceans in its preanthropogenic state 346

18.3. Organic carbon balance and net exchange flux of CO2 across the air-seawater interface for the coastal margin system 348

19.1. Share of world's GDP by region (1980-1999) 360

19.2. Primary energy consumption by region (1991, 1995, and 2000) 360

19.3. Carbon dioxide emissions by region (1991, 1995, and 2000) 361

19.4. Demographic indicators (1993-1998) 361

19.5. Local governmental revenue and expenditures (1998) 361

19.6. Number of passenger cars per thousand people (1995) 362

19.7. Annual net carbon flux to the atmosphere from land use change (1960-1990) 363

19.8. Urban social indicators (1998) 364

19.9. Economic indicators (1998) 365

20.1. A simple conceptual framework for various social structures and processes influencing the global carbon cycle 372

21.1. Net carbon flow (X - M) for all regions (2000) 391

21.2. Net carbon flow (X - M) for North America (1989-2000) 392

21.3. Net carbon flow (X - M) for Europe (1989-2000) 392

21.4. Net carbon flow (X - M) for Asia (1989-2000) 393

22.1. Actual per capita CO2 emissions and per capita CO2 emissions indexed to the ratio of 1971 GDP (1990 US$1,000 purchasing power parity) to 1971 CO2 emissions for selected countries 406

22.2. Projections of (a) GDP losses and (b) marginal cost in Annex B countries in 2010 from global models 412

22.3. Rate of change in (a) energy intensity, and (b) carbon intensity, historically achieved levels (1860-1990) 414

25.1. Incremental value of emission rights for (a) carbon, (b) CH4, and (c) N2O, 2010-2100 (alternative temperature ceilings) 445

25.2. Prices of a ton of (a) CH4 and (b) N2O relative to carbon (alternative temperature ceilings) 446

25.3. Prices of a ton of (a) CH4 and (b) N2O relative to carbon (constraint on absolute decadal temperature change) 447

25.4. Prices of a ton of (a) CH4 and (b) N2O relative to carbon when the objective is balancing costs and benefits 448

26.1. Seasonally averaged concentrations of nitrate and chlorophyll in oceanic surface waters with contours at 2 ^mol l-1 and 0.5 ^mol l-1 intervals, respectively 455

26.2. Parameters inside and outside the iron-fertilized waters (or "patch") in the Southern Ocean Iron RElease Experiment 456-457

27.1. The phase behavior of CO2 in seawater, showing the gas-liquid and hydrate phase boundaries with a typical in situ P-T profile 471

27.2. A "frost heave" of CO2 hydrate on the seafloor at 3,600 m depth resulting from massive hydrate formation 472

27.3. A 56 l carbon-fiber-wound CO2 delivery system installed on ROV Tiburon, showing end cap with gauges, delivery pumps on top, and valves to the left

27.4. A sketch of a deep-sea CO2 enrichment experimental site designed to investigate the response of marine organisms to locally elevated CO2 levels

475 2

27.5. The pH signals recorded at distances of 1 m, 5 m, and 50 m from a CO2 source placed on the seafloor 475

28.1. Relationships between reported carbon sequestration potentials depending on the number and type of constraints considered 481

28.2. Illustrative graph showing the possible time course of sink development

29.1. Estimated climate forcings (globally averaged) between 1750 and 1998 494

29.2. Estimated global budgets of the anthropic sources of CH4 and N2O 499

29.3. Seasonal CH4 emission in lowland rice as a function of grain yield 501

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