Heat Health Warning Systems Development Implementation and Intervention Activities

Sheridan, and Adam J. Kalkstein Abstract There is an increasing awareness that heat is a major killer in many larger urban areas, and many municipalities have taken renewed interest in how they deal with oppressive heat. The implementation of sophisticated heat health watch warning systems (HHWWS) is becoming more widespread, and these systems are becoming an important mechanism to save lives. One primary consideration in HHWWS development is the knowledge that...

Perspectives of Changing Climate Most Evident and Probable Impact and Means of Adaptation

As shown in the previous sections, the climate is a major determinant for the phenology, distribution and productivity of plants, as well as for the distribution of the released pollen. With climate change, the margins of species ranges, their relative abundances and boundaries may start to shift (Walther 2003), which will result in changes in local allergenic pollen spectra. For example Finland will probably experience an annual mean temperature increase of 3-5 C during the next 100 years...

Impact of Long Range Pollen Transport to Allergenic Episodes Forecasting Possibilities

The above-outlined main mechanisms that control the plant behavior at a specific place lead to significantly different regional phenological calendars dependent on specifics of regional climate and vegetation. Some key features of these processes can be simulated using semi-empirical models, such as Thermal-Time, thus allowing the forecasting of pollen seasons using meteorological forecasts and local plant observations. The current section will discuss the process that challenges such...

Conclusions

The basic state of knowledge in the field of weather climate and human health allows for the delivery of a number of advisory services in order to enhance the capability of societies and individuals to properly adapt to climate and climate change. As regards risk factors, biometeorology has to inform and advise the public and decision makers in politics and administration with the aim of recognizing and averting health risks at an early stage, in the framework of preventive planning, for...

Organization of This Volume

With these ideas in mind, the essays have been organised into two sections. After this introductory essay, the first section focuses on research frontiers in biometeor-ology in the fields of human, animal, and plant biometeorology. Chapter 2 by Gerd Jendritzky and Richard de Dear begin the exploration with a discussion of the thermal environment, taking a physiological perspective and exploring the problems of developing a Universal Thermal Climate Index. Chapter 3 by Larry Kalkstein and Scott...

Thermoregulation

For the human being it is crucial to keep the body's core temperature at a constant level (37 C) in order to ensure functioning of the inner organs and of the brain. In contrast the temperature of the shell, i.e. skin and extremities, can vary strongly depending on the volume of blood it contains, which in turn, depends on metabolic and environmental heat loads. Heat is produced by metabolism as a result of activity, sometimes increased by shivering or slightly reduced by mechanical work where...

Understanding of the Interactions Between Climatic Factors and Human Animal and Plant Systems Can Increase Adaptive

One of the themes running across the chapters is the promise of using understanding of the interactions between climate factors and human, animal, and plant systems to design systems to provide advance warning of potentially adverse weather conditions using seasonal and short-range forecasts. The initial focus has been on understanding weather conditions that can lead to a significant change in response, particularly for human health. For example, Kalkstein and Sheridan, and Jendritzky and de...

Towards an Integrated Adaptive Model

The envisaged models below are based on Figs. 11.1 and 11.3, the summaries in Tables 11.1 and 11.2, and discussions of the homeothermic imperative. As discussed in Auliciems (1981, 1983), and Auliciems and de Dear (1997), cognitive-affective-effective control is a main interface between the biological and technological response, and one that should be central to the field of natural hazards risk-management research as defined in Burton et al. (1978), and Whyte (1985), and to coping with natural...

Adaptation to Climate and Climate Change

Adaptation is a component of vulnerability, such that impacts on human activities and biophysical systems are, or can be, moderated by adaptation. As a technical term the word adaptation has a long and complex history in both the social and the natural sciences. In the natural sciences, adaptation is most closely associated with Darwinian evolutionary ideas and the process of natural selection. Those biological characteristics that have survival value in a hostile and changing environment get...

Pollen Counts and Symptoms

Trees tend to trigger allergic reactions of patient with asthma and allergic rhino-conjunctivitis in early spring while grass contribution is mostly visible during late spring and early summer weeds can trigger symptoms from spring to fall. Each plant pollinates at approximately the same time each year. However, during the last decades, a significant trend for earlier flowering in many species on the Northern hemisphere has been observed (Menzel et al. 2006). Weather conditions strongly affect...

Adaptation and Water Resources

Abstract Adaptation to climate change in the water sector, especially changes in water management practices, will have a very significant impact on how future climate affects the water sector. The chapter starts out by describing the range of adaptive options that are available to water managers faced with changing circumstances. One classification distinguishes between supply-side and demand-side options. Another classification scheme proposed here distinguishes between 1) technological, 2)...

Introduction

Allergy is among the major diseases of the world affecting about 500 million people. These diseases are present in all countries, they pose a major burden to the society, and their prevalence is increasing in nearly all regions, with the fastest rate reported in developing countries. Even allergic diseases considered as non-severe, such as allergic rhinitis, impair the social and professional lives of the patients or their caregivers. Moreover, patients with allergic diseases have reduced...

The Homeothermic Imperative

The pitfalls of nineteenth century determinist versus twentieth century free will semantics were sidestepped by biologists who traced the evolutionary distribution of the human organism on the earth's surface in response to the demands of thermoregulatory processes (Burton and Edholm 1955 Dubos 1980 Newman 1956 Sargent 1963 Scholander 1955, 1956). While large scale determinism and questions of survival of civilizations are of interest in themselves, examination of the smaller scale level of the...

Developments in Malaria Early Warning Systems

The first operationally useful early warning system for epidemic malaria was implemented in India (Kiszewski and Teklehaimanot 2004). The system combined human and meteorologic factors to provide about a one month lead-time of epidemic risk. Rainfall alone accounted for about 45 of the variation in malaria transmission. A number of recent publications describe approaches for forecasting malaria epidemics using climate data not all of these approaches have been used to develop early warning...

References

Abel N., Langston A., Ive J., Tatnell B., Howden S.M. and Stol J. (2002). Institutional change for sustainable land use a participatory approach from Australia. In Complexity and Ecosystem Management The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems, Janssen MA (Ed). Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK. pp. 286-342. Aggarwal P.K., Joshi P.K., Ingramand J.S., Gupta R.K. (2004). Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change key information needs to improve policy...

Pollen Allergies and Adaptation

Mikhail Sofiev, Jean Bousquet, Tapio Linkosalo, Hanna Ranta, Auli Rantio-Lehtimaki, Pilvi Siljamo, Erkka Valovirta, and Athanasios Damialis Abstract This chapter is dedicated to the problem of plant-induced human allergy and to a specific way of adaptation to it via short-to-mid-term forecasts of atmospheric pollen concentrations and following pre-emptive and preparatory measures. It starts from the introduction to the subject, then considers the main forms of human plant-related allergy. Then,...

Psychological Perspectives on Adaptation to Weather and Climate

Abstract The author examines the psychological dimensions of adaptation to weather and the climate events. Psychological approaches to adaptation are discussed and the distinction between primary, secondary, and tertiary adaptation are made. The author next presents a theoretical framework that lends itself well to organizing the different psychological variables that can affect adaptation, some of which have been explored in previous studies. This organizing framework is known as Protection...

Discussion

Although considerable progress has been made in using environmental variables to predict malaria epidemics, improvements are needed in several areas. Controlling malaria in epidemic-prone areas is a different challenge than in epidemic settings strategies need to be targeted in time and space (Cox and Abeku 2007). Limitations in long-range forecasting, monitoring of environmental variables, and case surveillance are challenging development of accurate and timely malaria early warning systems....

General Animal Responses

Climate change deals with variations both short- and long-term. Those variations can come in many forms involving both temporal and spatial variations, ranging from the number and severity of acute, dynamic events (such as heat waves) impacting localized microclimates, to long-term chronic (decadal) global changes that may result from changes in atmospheric constituents. This broad perspective is taken here as we consider the impact of thermal environmental challenges associated with climate...

Components of an Early Warning System

The principal components of an early warning system include forecasting when and where an epidemic is likely to occur, predicting the number of cases of malaria that could occur (or whether a pre-defined threshold will be exceeded), implementing an effective and timely response plan, and ongoing evaluation of the system and its components (Ebi and Schmier 2005). The distinction between prediction and early warning is important early warning is prediction but not all predictions are early...

Effective Adaptation Will Come from Adjustments in Behavior and Social and Economic Systems

As noted in several chapters, increased understanding is needed of how climatic risks are perceived, in the short and long term, to better target adaptation efforts. Efforts are now turning to understanding how to most effectively motivate at-risk individuals to take necessary actions to reduce the possibility of heat stress. Early warning systems have used traditional media, particularly the radio and television, and are now beginning to use the internet and cellular telephones to communicate...

Human Biological Adaptation The Thermal Coping Range

Shivering Thermogenesis

The most immediate of the cocooning layers are the bio-technological constructs as illustrated in Fig. 11.3. For the present purposes, those items that are boxed constitute minimal cost measures that are sustainable or contained within comfortable coping ranges (Burton et al. 1978). The aggregates in Fig. 11.3 show an evaluation of the temperature equivalents of comfort coping ranges for acclimated and healthy individuals below and above neutral temperatures cool range14-23 C, warm range 12-17...

Plant Biometeorology and Adaptation

Simone Orlandini, Marco Bindi, and Mark Howden Abstract Weather conditions play a fundamental role in plant growth and development, due to their direct and indirect influence on physical, chemical and biological processes. It is then crucial the analysis of possible impact due to current and future climate change and variability. With this main objective, this chapter starts with a preliminary analysis of plant responses to weather conditions and then with an evaluation of climate change and...

Climate Adaptation Portfolio for the Tourism Recreation Sector

Climate adaptation in the tourism-recreation sector is comprised of complex mix of adaptations undertaken by diverse stakeholders at a range of spatial and temporal scales (Fig. 8.1). The climate adaptation portfolio presented in this section is not intended to be comprehensive, as this would require detailed adaptation portfolios, like that developed by Scott (2006b) for the ski industry, to be developed for several SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE Sun-Sand-Surf Tourism...

Anthropogenic Climate Change A Consensus Paradigm

The 1960s and 1970s of the last century saw remarkable advances in space exploration and computer technology that vastly facilitated acquisition of data and capacity for numerical analysis. In the new electronic age, multidisciplinary developments flourished through a leap in the capacity for information transfer between environmentally concerned individuals, national and international integrative research centers, philanthropic and conservation groups, conservation clubs, NGO's, and a variety...

The Heat Budget

Gangguan Pada Organ Ekskresi

The heat exchange between the human body and the thermal environment (Fig. 2.2) can be described in the form of the energy balance equation which is nothing but the first theorem of thermodynamics applied to the body's heat sources Fig. 2.1(a, b) Schematic representation of human physiological and behavioural thermoregulation (After Fiala et al. 2001 Havenith 2001) Fig. 2.1(a, b) Schematic representation of human physiological and behavioural thermoregulation (After Fiala et al. 2001 Havenith...

Malaria Early Warning Systems

Abstract Malaria is the most important vectorborne disease in the world it is also preventable. Climate patterns and weather events play a role in determining the incidence and geographic range of malaria, including through changes in human behavior, effects on the pathogen (Plasmodium), and effects on the malaria vector (Anopheles). Better understanding of the associations between malaria and environmental variables has lead to increased interest in developing early warning systems that alert...

Response of Domestic Animals to Climate Challenges

John Gaughan, Nicola Lacetera, Silvia E. Valtorta, Hesham Hussein Khalifa, LeRoy Hahn, and Terry Mader The climatic niche for an animal is predicted in terms of the temperature extremes it can endure. Abstract The livestock sector is socially, culturally and politically very significant. It accounts for 40 of the world's agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It employs 1.3 billion people, and creates livelihoods for one billion of the world's population living in poverty. Climate change is...

Tourists Recreationists 8211 Behavioural

Recreation and leisure tourism are by definition activities undertaken by choice during 'free time.' As such, tourists-recreationists have a great degree of freedom to choose the activities they wish engage in, as well as where and when they will do so. Spatial, temporal and activity substitution provide tourists-recreationists with tremendous adaptive capacity. Tourists are easily able to adapt to climatic conditions or climate-related impacts at any given destination by simply going...

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture

Production losses in livestock enterprises are an expected outcome of climate change. Leva et al. (1997) have determined the present production losses in the major milk producing regions in Argentina, and have projected those losses if the global climate change scenario took place. Estimations based on work by Berry et al. (1964), for cows producing 15, 20 and 25 kg milk day suggest that, under the global climate change scenario, milk production in Argentina would decline on average by 60 (Leva...

Tourism Recreation Operators

Tourism-recreation operators is a broad category comprised of diverse stakeholders, including businesses involved in the travel planning and transportation phase (e.g., travel agents, event planners, transportation companies, international tour companies) to the wide range of businesses involved in hospitality (i.e., hotelsresorts, restaurants), attractions management (e.g., museums, golf courses, etc.), and other services (e.g., tour guides, equipment rentals, etc.) at specific destinations....

Animal Adaptation

Adaptation has the potential to reduce some of the damage caused by climate change (Hulme 2005). However, little work has been undertaken to identify strategies which will allow domestic animals to adapt to climate change (King 2004). How is adaptation in domestic animals defined Is it simply the ability of the animals to survive, grow, and reproduce Or, is it maintenance of productive performance at some predetermined level Numerous terms are used to describe animal responses to adverse...

Impact of Climate Change on Animal Agriculture

The livestock sector is socially, culturally and politically very significant. It accounts for 40 of the world's agriculture Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It employs 1.3 billion people, and creates livelihoods for one billion of the world's population living in poverty. Global meat production is expected to more than double from 229 to 465 million tonnes between 1999 2001 and 2050. Milk production is also expected to increase from 580 to 1,043 million tonnes over the same period. In order to...

Government International National Local 8241 Technical

Governments at the local to national level are often managers of tourism-recreation lands and other resources (e.g., national parks, reservoirs) and as such, governments utilize many of the technical climate adaptation strategies already discussed in the tourism operators section. A recent example includes government response to changes in the phenology of cherry trees in Japan. Japan's cherry blossom is a national symbol and the basis of a multi-million dollar flower viewing tourism industry....

Human Adaptation within a Paradigm of Climatic Determinism and Change

Among all the factors which influence people's modes of life the most dominant are climate and stage of culture already obtained. Ellsworth Huntington, Mainsprings of Civilization 1945 281 One must seek to understand climate in the light of what mankind can perceive, understand and adapt to. Ken Hare, SCOPE 271985 2.1 .we simply cannot say how the patterns of natural and human induced change might cancel or reinforce each other at the regional and local level over coming decades and centuries....

Rhinitis and Conjunctivitis

Europe 2025 Rhinitis

Allergic rhinitis is a symptomatic disorder of the nose induced by an IgE-mediated inflammation of the nasal membranes in response to allergen exposure. Symptoms of rhinitis include rhinorrhea, nasal obstruction, nasal itching and sneezing which will be cured spontaneously or with treatment. The severity of allergic rhinitis can be classified as mild or moderate-severe (Fig. 5.1) based on symptoms and quality of life parameters. Fig. 5.1 Classification of allergic rhinitis normal sleep & no...

The Evaluation of Thermal Stress

There is robust literature (Kovats and Koppe 2005) associating what is generally termed oppressive heat with some negative health consequence. However, the means by which oppressive is defined varies widely (Watts and Kalkstein 2004) accordingly, the HHWWS that have been developed across the world in recent years have utilized a diversity of methods. Each of these methods has their respective strengths and weaknesses. The utilization of a temperature threshold is perhaps the simplest of all...

Cognitive Mediating Processes

Once initiated by the information about a weather or climate event, the threat and adjustment coping appraisal processes will begin. These parallel processes and the psychological biases that can affect them largely occur automatically, outside of awareness, and without much contribution of rational, and deliberative processing (Kihlstrom 1987). A variety of cognitive, social, and decision-making biases can influence the cognitive mediating processes of the PMT model (and similar components in...

Psychological Conceptions of Adaptation

The adaptation to weather and climate encompasses several related psychological constructs. Overall, psychological adaptation refers both to the processes (i.e., adjustment and coping) and to the outcomes of attempting to respond effectively to variations in the environment, which here concerns weather and climate. Adaptation generally refers to the adjustment of psychological processes (cognition, affect, and behaviours) so that they reflect environmental demands and are responsive to them...

Technological Adaptive Measures

A major tenet in water management is that input reduction is the first choice in efforts to extend water resources. The largest gains will be made in agriculture and industry, which are the biggest water users. In agriculture, irrigation accounts for most of the water used. Micro-irrigation, or drip irrigation, is a good example of an adaptive measure. Water is conveyed to crops by pipes instead of open ditches or spray devices that encourage evaporation. This method is especially effective in...

Constant Climate Determinism

Climate change has been of scholarly interest since Charles Darwin's (1859) writings on the causes of evolution of species. To the natural scientist, however, the issue over the following century was largely one of evolutionary and geologic time frames the atmospheric environment at a particular location could be considered to be a given constant. In the writings of Hippocrates (circa 400 BC) On Air, Waters and Places, hydrometeor impacts or meteorotropisms could be observed, but resultant...

Projections of the Future Incidence and Geographic Range of Malaria

There has been a great deal of interest in modeling how the incidence and geographic range of malaria could change under different climate change projections. Malaria is a complex disease to model, so no model completely describes the relationships among environmental variables, vector, and parasite. Table 4.2 summarizes recent studies that projected the impacts of climate change on the incidence and geographic range of malaria, including the climate scenarios used. Most of the studies focused...

Effect of Heat Waves on Animals

An aspect of climate change is an increase in severe weather. Significant heat events since the mid 1990s appear to be increasing and have resulted in sizable human and animal mortality. Hahn and Mader (1997), Xin and Puma (2001) and Hahn et al. (2000, 2002) described the impact on livestock from a week long heat wave in the mid-central United States during July 1995 the heat wave also resulted in a significant number of human deaths. That heat wave was estimated to have cost the US cattle...

Creation of a Warning System

Ultimate HHWWS development and the impact of the system on the community is linked with the quality of the message delivery system to both the public and important stakeholders (Bernard and McGeehin 2004). To accomplish this successfully, many current systems have turned to the internet as a way of increasing the speed of communication among all interested parties (Sheridan and Kalkstein 2004). Ideally, meteorological data must be made available in digital form from a forecasting office for at...

Body Heat Animal x Climate Interactions

There are several components to body heat load which can be divided into two broad categories viz. internal or metabolic heat load (ruminal fermentation and nutrient metabolism) and environmental heat load (Armsby and Kriss 1921 Duckworth and Rattray 1946 Shearer and Beede 1990). Metabolic heat load is typically a result of (i) basal body functions (heart, lungs and liver), (ii) maintenance, (iii) activity, and (iv) performance (e.g., daily gain, milk, eggs) (McDowell 1974). Basal body...

Short Term Adaptation

Micro Climate Berlin

Lives would have been saved if adequate heat-health warning services (HHWS) had been activated in Europe in 2003, as promoted by the WMO WHO UNEP showcase projects in Rome and Shanghai. Such systems are based on biometeorological forecasts (Fig. 2.8) expecting exceeding of an agreed threshold (heat load forecast). The following interventions (based on a locally adjusted emergency response plan) are the responsibility of public health services PHS. HHWSs must be prepared in advance with complete...

Environmental Modifications

Global climate change models predict an increase of heat stress events, as well as general warming in some areas. Therefore, methods that will alleviate the impact of these events should be considered, especially if alternative land use or species breed use is not an option. Beede and Collier (1986) suggest three management options for reducing the effect of thermal stress in cattle which have application for all livestock and poultry. The options are (1) physical modification of the...

Intervention Measures and Public Outreach

No matter how efficient HHWWS are in estimating the health outcome of an excessive heat event, they cannot be successful in saving lives if proper intervention procedures are not in place. Intervention describes the actions taken by local communities whenever excessive heat warnings are issued by the local or regional weather service or health department. For intervention activities to be successful, there must be close stakeholder interaction between a number of agencies assigned with...

Animal Responses to Heat Load

Thermal Shock Animals

Direct effects involve heat exchanges between the animal and the surrounding environment are related to radiation, temperature, humidity, and wind speed (Johnson 1987). Because the thermal environment is more than just heat, the term heat stress is somewhat misleading. The term heat load has been used to highlight the importance of the interactive effects of the fore-mentioned factors. Within breed, animal variation (phenotypes), differences among breeds (genotypes), management factors such as...

Determining Flowering Timing and Intensity

Considering the seasonal development of allergenic plants, a special attention must be dedicated to early-flowering tree species and herbaceous taxa. For trees, the genera in Fagales (Betula, Alnus, Carya, Corylus, Carpinus, Juglans, Quercus) and the genus mulberry (Moraceae Morus) together with sugi (Taxodiaceae Cryptomeria japonica) in the boreal and temperate zones and olive (Oleaceae Olea) in the Mediterranean climate are among the most common agents of seasonal allergies. Important...

Integration and Adaptation Definition

To return to the European heat wave narrative, continental European summers and the Mediterranean winters are expected to become considerably warmer heat waves are very likely at the < 90 level of confidence to increase in frequency and severity (IPCC 2007). Medical researcher Tony McMichael (2007) is reported I welcome the growing emphasis on the modeling of adaptive strategies to lessen the health risks. Recent evidence from extreme heat waves, cyclones and droughts has shown how widely the...

Protection Motivation Theory An Organizing Framework

Protection Motivation Theory

Protection Motivation Theory (PMT, see Fig. 10.1) provides a valuable perspective for addressing such questions. PMT was created as a model of disease prevention and health promotion (Floyd et al. 2000 Rogers 1975 Rogers and Prentice-Dunn 1997). The author selected PMT from among other possible models (i.e., the Health Belief Model, Rosenstock 1974 Theory of Reasoned Planned Behaviour, Ajzen 1991) because its variables and hypothesized relationships possess the greatest potential to extend our...

Local and Regional Scale Aspects of Pollen Seasons

Climate is a major determinant of regional seasons of allergenic pollen. In boreal and temperate vegetation zones cold period limits the pollination schedule of plants to certain months, while in warmer climate allergenic pollen may, in addition to periodical peaks, be present in the air all year round (Fang et al. 2001 Hurtado and Alson 1990 Murray et al. 2002 Savitsky and Kobzar 1996). Arid climate may also confine the pollen season to a few months (Halwgay 1994). More specificities arise...

Conclusion Philosophies Responsibilities and Adaptability

Clearly human-atmosphere interrelationships are not simple, and both the well being of people and condition of the indoor and outdoor atmospheric environment, are parts of a multifaceted system that need to be viewed (a) holistically, (b) in terms of probabilities and (c) specific time horizons for (d) particular locations. Over-deterministic expressions of human responses, fail to recognize the power of human perceptions, and their adaptability as the basis for sustainable choices and rational...

Impact of Climate Change on Animal Health

The effects of climate changes and, in particular, global warming on health status of livestock have not been considered with the same attention as given to humans However, it is assumed that as in the case of humans, climate changes can affect the health of livestock and poultry, both directly and indirectly. Direct impacts include temperature-related illness and death, and the morbidity of animals during extreme weather events. Indirect impacts follow more intricate pathways and include those...

The Near Future The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI

Although each of the published heat budget models is, in principle, appropriate for use in any kind of assessment of the thermal environment, none of the models is accepted as a fundamental standard, neither by researchers nor by end-users. Fig. 2.4 Acclimatisation related thresholds for example Lisbon 2003 based on the HeRATE approach Koppe and Jendritzky 2005 Fig. 2.4 Acclimatisation related thresholds for example Lisbon 2003 based on the HeRATE approach Koppe and Jendritzky 2005 On the other...