Contents

Contributors xiii

Foreword by Paul J. Crutzen xv

Prcfacc by David Schimel xvii

Introduction

1 Uncertainties of Global Biogeochemical Predictions, E. D. Schulze, D. S. S. Schimel 3

1.1 Introduction 3

1.2 The IGBP Transect Approach 3

1.2.1 The Patagonian Transect 3

1.2.2 The Australian Transect 5

1.2.3 The European Transect 5

1.3 Variability in Processes 6

1.4 Biome Approach and Functional Types 10

1.5 New Approaches to Functional Diversity 10

1.6 Conclusions 12

References 14

2 Uncertainties of Global Climate Predictions, L. Bengtsson 15

2.1 Introduction 15

2.2 Observational Evidence 16

2.3 Physical Rationale 17

2.3.1 Stochastic Forcing 17

2.3.2 Solar irradiation Changes 18

2.3.3 Volcanic Effects 18

2.3.4 Anthropogenic Effects 20

2.4 Response to Forcing of the Climate System 20

2.5 Results from Climate Change Prediction Experiments 23

2.6 Summary and Conclusions 26

References 27

3 Uncertainties in the Atmospheric Chemical System, G. P. Brasseur, E. A. H. Holland 31

3.1 Introduction 31

3.2 Synthetic View of Chemical Processes in the Troposphere 32

3.3 The IMAGES Model 33

3.4 Changes in the Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere 34

3.5 Concluding Remarks 39

References 39

4 Inferring Biogeochemical Sources and Sinks from Atmospheric Concentrations: General Consideration and Applications in Vegetation Canopies, M. Raupach 41

4.1 Introduction 41

4.2 Scalar and Isotopic Molar Balances 43

4.2.1 General Principles 43

4.2.2 Single-Point Eulerian Equations 44

4.2.3 Source Terms for C02 45

4.2.4 Single-Point Lagrangian Equations 45

4.3 Inverse Methods for Inferring Scalar Sources and Sinks in Canopies 47

4.3.1 General Principles 47

4.3.2 Localized Near Field Theory 47

4.3.3 The Dispersion Matrix 48

4.3.4 Turbulent Velocity Field 49

4.3.5 Solulions for Forward, Inverse and Implicit Problems 50

4.3.6 Field Tests 52

4.4 Inverse Methods and Isotopes in Canopies 53

4.4.1 Path Integrals and Keeling Plots 53

4.4.2 Inverse Lagrangian Analysis of Iso topic Composition 54

4.5 Summary and Conclusions 55

Appendix A 57

Appendix B 57

References 58

5 Biogeophysical Feedbacks and the Dynamics of Climate, M. Claussen 61

5.1 Introduction 61

5.2 Synergisms 62

5.2.1 High Northern Latitudes 62

5.2.2 Subtropics 62

5.3 Multiple Equilibria 64

5.4 Transient Interaction 66

5.5 Perspectives 67

References 69

6 Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions and Monsoon Climate Change: A Paleo-Perspective, J. E. Kutzbach, Michael T. Coe, S. P. Harrison and M. T. Coe 73

6.1 Introduction 73

6.2 Response of the Monsoon to Orbital Forcing 75

6.3 Ocean Feedbacks on the Monsoon 76

6.4 Land-Surface Feedbacks on the Monsoon 77

6.5 Synergies between the Land, Ocean and Atmosphere 81

6.6 The Role of Climate Variability 81

6.7 Final Remarks 83

References 83

7 Paleobiogeochemistry, I. C. Prentice, D. Raynaud 87

7.1 Introduction 87

7.2 Methane 89

7.3 Carbon Dioxide 89

7.4 Mineral Dust Aerosol 90

7.5 Scientific Challenges Posed by the Ice-Core Records 91

7.5.1 Methane 91

7.5.2 Carbon Dioxide 91

7.5.3 Mineral Dust Aerosol 92

7.6 Towards an Integrated Research Strategy for Palaeobiogeochemistry 92

References 93

8 Should Phosphorus Availability Be Constraining Moist Tropical Forest Responses to Increasing C02 Concentrations? J. Lloyd, M. I. Bird, E. M. Veenendaal and B. Kruijt

8.1 Introduction 96

8.2 Phosphorus in the Soils of the Moist Tropics 96

8.2.1 Soil Organic Phosphorus 96

8.2.2 Soil Inorganic Phosphorus 97

8.2.3 Soil Carbon/Phosphorus Interactions 97

8.3 Slates and Fluxes of Phosphorus in Moist Tropical Forests 98

8.3.1 Inputs and Losses of Phosphorus Through Rainfall, Dry Deposition and Weathering:

Losses Via Leaching 98

8.3.2 Internal Phosphorus Flows in Moist Tropical Forests 100

8.3.3 Mechanisms lor Enhanced Phosphorus Uptake in Low P Soils 102

8.4 Linking the Phosphorus and Carbon Cycles 103

8.4.1 To What Extent Does Phosphorus Availability Really Limit Moist Tropical Forest Productivity? . . 103

8.4.2 Tropical Plant Responses to Increases in Atmospheric C02 Concentrations 104

8.4.3 Using a Simple Model to Examine C02/Phosphorus Interactions in Tropical Forests 105

Rcfcrcnccs 109

9 Trees in Grasslands: Biogeochemical Consequences of Woody Plant Expansion, S. Archer, T. W. Boutton and K. A. Hibbard 115

9.1 Introduction 115

9.2 Woody Plant Encroachment in Grasslands and Savannas 116

9.3 The La Copita Case Study 118

9.3.1 Biogeographical and Historal Context 118

9.3.2 Herbaceous Retrogression and Soil Carbon Losses 118

9.3.3 Woody Plant Encroachment and Ecosystem Biogeochemistry 119

9.4 Degradation: Ecological Versus Socioeconomic 127

9.5 Implications for Ecosystem and Natural Resources Management 128

9.6 Summary 129

References 130

10 Biogeochemistry in the Arctic: Patterns, Processes and Controls, S. Jonasson, F.S. Chapin, III and G. R. Shaver

10.1 Introduction 139

10.2 Tundra Organic Matter 139

10.2.1 Distribution of Organic Matter 139

10.2.2 Patterns and Controls of Organic Matter Turnover between Ecosystem Types 141

10.3 Tundra Nutrients 142

10.3.1 Nutrient Distribution and Controls of Nutrient Cycling 142

10.3.2 Nutrient Mineralization and Plant Nutrient Uptake 142

10.3.3 Are there Unaccounted Plant Sources of Limiting Nutrients? 143

10.4 Biogeochemical Responses to Experimental Ecosystem Manipulations 145

10.4.1 Applicability of Experimental Manipulations 145

10.4.2 Responses to Water Applications 145

10.4.3 Response to Nutrient Addition and Warming 145

10.4.4 Responses in Ecosystem Carbon Balance 147

10.5 Summary 148

References 148

11 Lvaporation in the Boreal Zone During Summer—Physics and Vegetation, F. M. Kelliher, J. Lloyd, C. Rebmann, C. Wirth and E. D. Schulze, D. D. Baldocchi

11.1 Introduction 151

11.2 Climate and Soil Water 152

11.3 Evaporation Theory 156

11.4 Evaporation During Summer and Rainfall 158

11.5 Forest Evaporation, Tree Life Form and Nitrogen 160

11.6 Conclusions 162

References 162

12 Past and Future Forest Response to Rapid Climate Change, M.B.Davis 167

12.1 Introduction 167

12.2 Long-Distance Dispersal 168

12.3 Estimating Jump Distances 170

12.4 Interactions with Resident Vegetation - Constraints on Establishment 171

12.5 Interactions with Resident Vegetation - Competition for Light and

Resulting Constraints on Population Growth 172

12.6 Conclusions 173

References 174

13 Biogeochemical Models: Implicit vs. Explicit Microbiology J. Schimel 177

13.1 Introduction 177

13.2 Microbiology in Biogeochemical Models 177

13.3 Dealing with Microbial Diversity in Models 178

13.4 Kinetic Effects of Microbial Population Size 178

13.5 Microbial Recovery from Stress 180

13.6 Conclusions 181

References 182

14 The Global Soil Organic Carbon Pool, M. I. Bird, H. Santrùckovâ, J. Lloyd and E. M. Veenendaal 185

14.1 Introduction: the Soil Carbon Pool and Global Change 185

14.2 Factors Affecting the Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon 186

14.3 Global Variations in the SOC Pool 187

14.4 The Limitations of Available Observational SOC Data 190

14.5 A Stratified Sampling Approach 191

14.6 Conclusions: Sandworld and Clayworld 197

References 197

15 Plant Compounds and Their Turnover and Stability as Soil Organic Matter, G. Gleixner, C. Czimczik, C. Kramer, B. M. Liihker and M. W. I. Schmidt

15.1 Introduction 201

15.2 Pathways of Soil Organic Matter Formation 201

15.2.1 Formation and Decomposition of Biomass 201

15.2.2 The Influence of Environmental Conditions on SOM Formation 206

15.2.3 Formation of Black Carbon 206

15.3 Stabilization of Soil Organic Matter 208

15.3.1 Chemical Stability of Molecules 209

15.3.2 Stabilization of SOM by Interactions With the Soil Matrix 210

15.3.3 Biological Stabilization of Organic Matter in Soils 210

15.4 Turnover of Soil Organic Matter 211

15.5 Conclusion 213

References 213

16 Itip lit/Output Balances and Nitrogen Limitation in Terrestrial Ecosystems,

16.1 Abstract 217

16.2 Long-term Nutrient Limitation 218

16.3 A Simple Model 219

16.4 Pathways of N Loss 219

16.5 Constraints to N Fixation 222

16.6 Conclusions 222

References 223

17 Interactions Between Hillslope Hydrochemistry, Nitrogen Dynamics and Plants in

Fennoscandian Boreal Forest, P. Hogberg 227

17.1 Introduction 227

17.2 A Historical Perspective 227

17.3 Nitrogen Supply and Forest Productivity in a Landscape Perspective: Hypotheses 228

17.4 Interactions Between Hydrochemistry, N Dynamics and Plants at Betsele - a Model System 230

17.5 Experimental Evidence 231

17.6 Conclusions 232

References 232

18 The Cycle of Atmospheric Molecular Oxygen and its Isotopes, M. Heimann 235

18.1 Introduction 235

18.2 Molecular Atmospheric Oxygen 235

18.2.1. Overview 235

18.2.2. Measurement Techniques 236

18.2.3. Global Atmpospheric Trends in C02 and 02 237

18.2.4. Seasonal Cycles and Mean Annual Spatial Gradients 238

18.2.5. Continental Dilution of The Oceanic 02 / N2 Signal 239

18.3 The Stable Isotopes of Oxygen 240

18.3.1. Overview 240

18.3.3. The Dole Effect 241

18.4 Integrative Research Approach 242

References 243

19 Constraining the Global Carbon Budget from Global to Regional Scales - the Measurement Challenge, R. J. Francey,

19.1 Introduction 245

19.2 Present Status of Global C-Models 245

19.3 Global C02-Measurements 247

19.4 The Global C02-Measuring Network 249

References 252

20 Carbon Isotope Discrimination of Terrestrial Ecosystems - How Well do Observed and Modeled Results Match? N. Buchmann and J. O. Kaplan

20.1 Introduction 253

20.2 Experimental and Analytical Methods 253

20.3 Description of the Model 255

20.4 13C Signature of Ecosystem Respiration 255

20.5 Modeled Ecosystem Carbon Discrimination 256

20.6 Comparison of Observed and Modeled De Estimates 258

20.6.1 Differences Due to Vegetation and PFT Distribution 259

20.6.2 Differences Due to Vegetation Change 260

20.6.3 Differences Due to The Water Regime 260

20.6.4 Differences Due to Selection of Field Sites 261

20.7 Ecophysiological Information of Ae 261

20.8 Conclusions 262

References 265

21 Photosynthetic Pathways and Climate, J. R. Ehleringer and T. E. Cerling 267

21.1 Introduction 267

21.2 A Physiological Basis for C3/C4 Plant Distributions 268

21.3 A Brief I listory of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels 268

21.4 Recognizing the Presence of C3 and C4 Ecosystems in the Paleorecord 269

21.5 The Global Expansion of C4 Ecosystems 270

21.6 C3/C4 Dynamics During Glacial-Interglacial Periods 272

21.7 Photosynthetic Pathway Distribution in The Modern World 274

21.8 Photosynthetic Pathway Impacts Herbivores 274

21.9 Summary 275

References 276

22 Biological Diversity, Evolution and Biogeochemistry, H.A. Mooney 279

22.1 What Do We Have and What Are We Losing? 279

22.2 Do Species Losses Matter for Biogeochemical Cycling? 279

22.2.1 From First Principles - No 279

22.2.2 From First Principles - Yes 280

22.3 Kinds of Diversity 280

22.3.1 Structural Diversity 280

22.3.2 Chemical Diversity 280

22.3.3 Functional-Type Diversity 281

22.4 The Evolution of Functional Diversity 281

22.4.1 The Changing Atmosphere 281

22.4.2 Getting on Land 281

22.5 Cellulose 281

22.6 Evolution of Polyphenolic Compounds 281

22.7 The Build Up of Carbon and Evolution of Decomposers 282

22.7.1 The Evolution of Angiosperms and Insects 282

22.8 Analysis of the Role of Diversity and Biogeochemistry 283

22.8.1 Direct Tests 283

22.8.2 Field Inferences 283

22.10 Summary 283

References 182

23 Atmospheric Perspectives on the Ocean Carbon Cycle, P. J. Rayner 285

23.1 Introduction 285

23.2 Long-term Mean Ocean Uptake 285

23.2.1 Global and Temporal Perspective 285

23.2.2 Spatial Perspectives 288

23.3 Interannual Variability 290

23.4 Summary and Conclusions 293

References 293

24 International Instruments for the Protection of the Climate and Their National Implementation, R. Wolfrum 295

24.1 Introduction 295

24.2 Commitments of States Parties Under the Climate Change Regime 295

24.3 Implementation Measures 297

24.4 Monitoring Compliance and Enforcement 299

24.5 The Kyoto Protocol as a Learning Treaty 300

24.6 Conclusions 300

25 A New Tool to Characterizing and Managing Risks, O. Renn, A. Klinke, G. Busch, F. Beese and G. Lammel 303

25.1 Introduction 303

25.2 Risk Evaluation and Risk Classification 304

25.2.1 Main Characteristics of Risk Evaluation 304

25.2.2 Rational Risk Evaluation 304

25.2.3 Additional Criteria of Risk Evaluation 305

25.2.4 Risk Classification 305

25.3 Risk Management 306

25.3.1 Strategies and Instruments for the Risk Type "Sword of Damocles" 306

25.3.2 Strategies and Instruments for the Risk Type "Cyclop" 307

25.3.3 Strategies and Instruments for the Risk Type "Pythia" 308

25.3.4 Strategies and instruments for the Risk Type "Pandora's Box" 308

25.3.5 Strategies and Instruments for the Risk Type "Cassandra" 309

25.3.6 Strategies and Instruments for the Risk Type "Medusa" 310

25.4 Application to Environmental Risks of Substances 310

25.4.1 Global Biogeochemical Cycles are Influenced Due to Human Activity 310

25.4.2 Risk Classification of Environmental Risks of Substances 310

25.4.3 Forest Ecosystems are Influenced by Changing Biogeochemical Cycles 310

25.4.4 Changing Patterns of Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition 311

25.4.5 Exceedance of Forest Soils Buffering Capacity 312

25.4.6 Nitrogen Deposition on Nutrient Deficient and Acid Sensitive Soils 313

25.4.7 Conclusion 313

25.5 Some Conclusions for a Deliberative Process 314

References 314

26 Contrasting Approaches: The Ozone Layer, Climate Change and Resolving The Kyoto Dilemma, R. E. Benedick . . . 317

26.1 Introduction: Apples and Oranges? 317

26.2 Montreal: An Unlikely Success Story 318

26.3 Lessons From The Ozone Layer 319

26.4 Climate Change: The Road to Rio 320

26.5 The Framework Convention on Climate Change 321

26.6 Tortuous Targets in Kyoto 322

26.7 When Will the Kyoto Protocol Enter Into Force? 324

26.8 Unlearned Lessons 325

26.9 Time To Move on: A longer Term Perspective 326

26.10 A Technology-based Strategy For The Future: Eight Points For Action 328

References 330

27 Optimizing Long-Term Climate Management, K. Hasselmann 333

27.1 Introduction 333

27.2 Global Environment and Society Models 333

27.3 Impulse-Response Climale Models 335

27.4 Optimizing C02 Emissions 339

27.5 Conclusions 342

References 342

Subject Index 345

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