The A2 Scenario

Due to the fact that in the A2 scenario, both in the warmest decade (1951-1960) and the coldest decade (1963-1972), the six warmest and six coldest individual years have been used to construct the A1 scenario, the scenario displays a distribution of T similar to that presented in the A1 scenario (Table 7.2, Figures 7.1 and 7.2). In winter the most notable feature will be the lack of any decrease in T in the northern and western part of CANSRn. In spring the greatest agreement between both scenarios is observed. However, it is worth pointing out that in the A2 scenario, spring will be the season which will involve the greatest warming along with the warming of the Arctic (on average 1.06°C) (Table 7.2, Figure 7.1). Summer Twill be higher throughout almost all the Arctic, with the exception of the central part of the eastern coast of Greenland, the western part of CANSRn, and the southern part of PACR. The latter areas are at the same time the only ones where greater discrepancies between the predictions of future climate, presented in the A1 and A2 scenarios, were observed. The distributions of autumn T in both scenarios are similar, except that in the A2 scenario the decrease in T also includes CANSRs (Table 7.2, Figure 7.1). The scenario for annual T values demonstrates that in a warmer world they will be higher in the greater part of the Arctic, the highest being located between Spitsbergen and Zemlya Frantza Josifa, reaching ca. 2°C. A decrease in T, in most cases no greater than 0.5°C, will occur only in the central and eastern parts of PACR, in the adjacent part of CANSRn, in Baffin Bay, and in a small area of the coast of Baffin Island (Figure 7.2).

Figure 7.1. Scenarios of changes of mean seasonal T (in °C) in the Arctic. Scenario A2 Areas with a decrease in T are hatched.

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