Figures

2.1 Boundaries of the Arctic Ocean and its seas 8

2.2 Linear trends in the changes in total ice extent in the Greenland, Barents, and

Kara Seas for the period 1900-2003 (August) 13

2.3 Linear trends in changes in total ice extent for the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas for the period 1900-2003 (August) 13

2.4 Functions of the spectral density of variability in total ice extent during August in the western seas and in the eastern Eurasian Arctic seas 17

2.5 Forms of elementary wave variability used in the wavelet analysis 19

2.6 Temporal variability of the spectral structure of ice extent fluctuations of the Eurasian Arctic Seas in August for 1900-2003 on the basis of wavelet-analysis data color

2.7 Variability of total ice extent in the Greenland and Barents Seas for the period 1900-2003 (April) 20

2.8 Variability of the total ice extent in the Greenland, Barents, and Kara Seas for the period 1900-2003 (August) 21

2.9 Variability of total ice extent in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas for the period 1900-2003 (August) 21

2.10 Periodograms of the variability of ice extent in the Eurasian Arctic Seas in April and August, smoothed by a five-year running mean procedure for 1933-2003 24

3.1 Temporal variability of maximum landfast ice thickness for 1936-2000 and its spectral structure color

3.2 Statistical parameters of old-ice partial concentration in August for 1933-1992

and 1940-1959, 1960-1979 and 1980-1992 color

3.3 Location of the residual ice edge at the end of September 1995; calculated location of the second-year ice extent boundaries at the end of September 1996; multiyear ice at the end of September 1997; and mean climatologic boundary of multiyear ice in September color

3.4 Daily ice thickness growth per 1° of average air temperature in G. Sedov observation data for 1937-1938 33

3.5 Distribution in space of the difference in total sea ice concentration averaged over the periods 1963-1983 and 1940-1962 color

4.1 Changes in mean annual air temperature anomalies in the zone from 70-85°N in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries 38

4.2 Temporal variability of the spectral structure of mean annual air temperature anomalies in the 70-85°N zone in the twentieth century based on wavelet-analysis results color

4.3 Change in air temperature in the Antarctic from data on the isotopic composition of ice cores at Vostok station 39

4.4 Temporal variability of the spectral structure of mean annual air temperature anomalies in the 17.5-87.5°N zone for a 400-year period based on wavelet-analysis results color

4.5 Annual air temperature anomalies in the zone from 70-85°N with linear trend and 50-60 year fluctuations excluded 41

4.6 The spectral structure of interannual variability of annual air temperature anomalies in the zone from 70-85°N based of wavelet-analysis results color

4.7 Indices of high-latitude zonality smoothed by 11-year periods and averaged for the warmer part of the year (April-October); and the same with the linear trend excluded 45

4.8 Atmospheric pressure distribution at sea level averaged for periods of anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation regimes, and the differences between them 48

4.9 Anomalies of mean annual zonality index values in the atmosphere of temperate latitudes (40-60°N) 50

4.10 SLP anomalies for the cold (1965-1975) and for the warm (1990-2000) periods;

and the difference in SLP between the warm and cold periods 50

4.11 Spectrum of NAO index changes in the twentieth century 52

4.12 Mean resulting ice-drift pattern for summer and winter during the warm epoch; and the difference between ice-drift vectors during the warm and cold epochs for summer and winter 55

4.13 Average annual variations of the area of mean monthly ice export from the Arctic Basin to the Greenland Sea through Fram Strait 59

4.14 Interannual fluctuations of the total ice area of the Siberian shelf seas in August;

and areas of ice exported from the Arctic Basin through Fram Strait 60

4.15 Mean multiyear values of seasonal changes in the calculated ice exchange of the Barents, Kara and Laptev Seas with the Arctic Basin 64

4.16 Average 1954-1991 boundaries of prevailing old ice in March; and close residual ice in late September of the preceding year 66

4.17 Changes in the average latitude of prevailing old ice boundaries at the end of winter; ice export to the Arctic Basin for the winter period; average latitude of the boundaries of residual ice at the end of summer in the Laptev, the East Siberian, and the Chukchi Seas 69

4.18 Average location of the old ice boundary in the eastern Arctic Seas for the periods 1960-1979 and 1980-2000 70

4.19 Changes in the distribution of average salinity in the 5-50-m water layer described by the linear trends for the periods 1950-1988 and 1989-1993 ... 75

4.20 Average difference in atmospheric pressure between the periods 1985-1995 and 1970-1980 for January-March and July-September 76

4.21 Change in average salinity in the 0-100-m layer in the Norwegian Sea from weather ship M observations and in the 0-50-m layer in the Arctic Basin . . 77

4.22 Layout of the regions for calculations of vorticity index values 79

4.23 Variation over time of the vorticity index value at point y = 84°N, A = 130.2oE

for March-July using 11-year running averaging 80

4.24 Long-term variability of Atlantic water temperature in the Arctic Basin in the twentieth century 83

4.25 Changes in the total annual runoff of the Severnaya Dvina, Pechora, Ob', and Yenisey Rivers and the Lena, Yana, Indigirka, and Kolyma Rivers from 1937 to

1999 85

4.26 Fluctuations in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index for the period 1937-1994 86

4.27 Changes in the average zonality index for October-March for the period 1930-1994 86

5.1 Comparative dynamics of the World Fuel Consumption and Global Air Temperature Anomaly, 1861-2000 92

5.2 Relationship between the number of large sea ice extent anomalies in the Arctic Seas in August-September to the total value of Wolf numbers in 11-year solar cycles 96

5.3 Dependence of monthly ice export area from the Arctic Basin to the Greenland Sea on the Wolf number average for a cycle during the odd and even cycles of solar activity 100

5.4 Observed and simulated yearly sunspot areas for 1611-2005 101

5.5 Scheme showing the locations of Jupiter and Saturn at different points in time as they revolve around the center of mass of the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system . . 109

5.6 Calculation diagrams for the distances between the Earth and the Sun for two types of locations for Jupiter and Saturn relative to the Sun 110

5.7 Variations in the intensity of extra-atmospheric radiation in January and in July during a 60-year cycle 111

6.1 Changes in the anomaly of mean annual air temperature in the zone from 70°N-

85°N zone during 1900-2007 (solid line), and its background forecast 115

6.2 Forecast of climatic changes for the total ice extent in the western and eastern Eurasian Arctic Seas for the twenty-first century 116

6.3 Duration of periods of unescorted through navigation for the Russian ice-strengthened ice class ships along the NSR 117

6.4 Average differences in surface air temperature between the periods 1980-2000

and 1930-1950 for winter and summer color

6.5 Annual-mean Arctic-wide air temperature anomaly time series correlated with estimated total solar irradiance and carbon dioxide 123

6.6 Sunspot numbers averaged over 10 years from direct measurements and reconstructed from cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be; and various reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere surface temperature color

6.7 Mean latitude of the old ice dominance boundary in March for the three meridian sectors corresponding to the Laptev Sea, East Siberian and Chukchi

Seas 128

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