Rely on Scientific and Technological Progress to Achieve the Balance Between Grain Supply and Demand

To promote agricultural development through scientific and technological progeress has become the basic feature of modern agriculture. In the past several decades, the proportional contribution made by scientific and technological progress in agricultural growth has been getting higher (Table 2.8). Research on crop germplasm in China has held the leading position in the world. Breeding research on main cereal crops has produced a higher level in the yield, quality and disease resistance of the new varieties. A large number of improved varieties bred all over the country have the capacity to replace the currently produced varieties, taking the grain output increase to 10 billion kg. Also, extending modelized cultivation and applicable technologies such as dry land farming, plastic mulch, water saving farming, scientific fertilization, integrated management of insect pests and decreasing post-harvest losses all contribute to the rapid growth of the per unit area yield and the total grain output.

With the extensive application of biotechnology in agriculture, it is estimated that biotechnology and output growth measures will generate more than 80 percent of the increase in agricultural products by the end of this century. So, the application of biotechnology to breeding new crop varieties such as super-rice, the development of nitrogen-fixing technology, the improvement of crop photo-synthetic efficiency, and the wide application of biological chemicals will open up new channels for grain production and provide sound technological guarantees for output growth.

Table 2.7. Prediction of the balance between grain supply and demand

Year

Demand

Supply

Balance

2010

5.91

5.52

0.39

2030

6.92

6.51

0.41

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