Prediction of Supply and Demand

While self-sufficiency in rice has been achieved in major rice-producing countries in Asia, the demand for rice is estimated to be increasing beyond the capacity of production. According to an estimate of attainable rice yield, out of eight countries surveyed, only Thailand and Myanmar will be in a comfortable position for meeting the rice needs of their populations. 3 Vietnam and India will be in a tight situation, even if they can exploit the full potential of the technologies. China, Indonesia, the Philippines and Bangladesh are likely to face severe shortages, unless there is further investment in transforming the rice area from unfavorable to favorable ecosystems and technological breakthroughs.

Substantial yield loss is predicted due to various technical constraints.3 For the irrigated ecosystem, yield loss due to all technical constraints is 962 kg/ha, i.e., about 20%. For rain-fed lowland and flood-prone ecosystems, such a loss is estimated to be about 33% and 40%, respectively. Yield loss due to submergence, drought and cold is estimated to be 20% and 28 %, respectively, for upland and flood-prone ecosystems. Yield loss due to insects and diseases is also predicted to be severe, particularly in the rain-fed ecosystem.

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