Prediction of Grain Demand in the 21st Century in China

The Total Demand for Grain Will Increase

Firstly, we consider the increase of food grain. Grain is people's daily necessity. It is rigid in consumption and is positively correlated with the size of population. With the increase of population and per capita GDP, the daily

Fig. 2.1. Tendency of population growth: Growth rate.

Fig. 2.1. Tendency of population growth: Growth rate.

per capita energy intake gradually grows higher. The relationship between per capita energy intake and grain consumption is that every 3,500 calories of energy intake needs to consume 1kg of grain. On this basis, it is roughly estimated that the demand of per capita food grain will be 152-164 kg, and the total demand for food grain will be 213-230 million tons, by the year 2010. By 2030, the demand for per capita food grain will decline to 140-160 kg, while the total demand will be 224-234 million tons.

Secondly, there is the issue offeed grains. Considering the technological progress in animal production in the future in China, we forecast that the average conversion efficiency of feed grains to animal products will be 3.5:1 by 2010, which means 3.5 kg feed grains will be converted to 1kg animal products. According to the energy intake requirements for animal products, feed conversion efficiency and the proportion of energy intake to grain consumption, we predict that the demand for feed grains will be about 260-340 million tons and 320-420 million tons, respectively, by 2010 and 2030 (Table 2.2).

In addition, the grain demand in industry, new stocks and wastage will not show big changes. Therefore, the demand in these aspects will only register as 12 percent of the total demand. The prediction of per capita grain and meat demand is shown in Table 2.3.

The Structure Of Grain Demand Will Change Considerably.

With the continuing increase in income of both urban and rural households, the per capita food grain will drop by a large margin in food consumption structure. Apart from this, there will be an increasing demand for feed grains, not only in the absolute volume, but also in its proportion of the total grain consumption. Consequently, feed grains will surpass grain for daily use and take the leading position in grain consumption by 2010 or so. With the continuing demand for feed grain consumption, the demand for per capita animal products and indirect grain consumption will all increase noticeably.

Due to the great demand for feed grains, food grain will decrease due to large population and limited arable land. The contradiction of competion for grain between man and animals

Fig. 2.2. (Above) Tendency of population growth: Total population.
Fig. 2.3. (Above) The proportion of caloric intake from different resources.

will become increasingly sharp. To some extent, it can be said that the future grain problems in China will be the feed grain issue.

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