Grain Supply Potential

At any point of time, total grain supply equals the sum of domestic production, imports and existing reserves. Among these three parts, the domestic grain production is the main source of the grain supply. China is a large consumer due to its large population. The imported grain is mainly used to redistribute grain varieties and compensate the shortage of grain production. Grain reserves are generally used to smooth supply against fluctuations in production and price. Here, I would like to put the emphasis on analyzing the future supply of grain production.

Table 2.2. Prediction of grain

demand and

supply (million tons)


Human consumption


Industry and other

Total demand

2010 2030

213-230 224-234

260-340 320-420

12% of the total demand

554-627 642-741

Table 2.3. Prediction of grain and meat capitation (kg)

Table 2.3. Prediction of grain and meat capitation (kg)

Year Grain ratio Feed Meat

2010 152-164 186-243 53.1-69.4

2030 140-160 196-258 56.0-74.0

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