Analysis of the Yield Growth Possibility of Per Unit Grain Area and the Total Output

From 1961 to 1995, the average growth rate of per unit area yield was 2.12 percent. Constrained by the comparative advantage of growin grain crops, the farmers slow down the growht rate of capital investment. In addition to this, the other factor which influences the decline of per unit area yield growth rate is the rising baseline grain unit yield. On the foundation of regression analysis on grain unit yield increase, it is concluded that the annual growth rate of the grain unit yield will be stable at about 1.5 percent from 1995 to 2010 and about one percent from 2010 to 2030. Based on the above analysis, it is predicted that the per unit area yield by 2010 can reach 5.25-5.85 tons/hectares and 6.47-7.05 tons/hectares by 2030 in China. Considering the changes of cultivated land area, multiple crop index and combining with the analysis of the per unit area yield growth possibility, we predict that the total grain output will be around 546-558 million tons in 2010 and 649-654 million ton sin 2030 (Table 2.6).

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