Historical And Future Climate And Co2 Concentration

Monthly historical climate data from 1930 to 1996, compiled and interpolated to a regular geographic grid by New et al. (2000), were obtained from data sets maintained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Distributed Active Archive Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (http://daac.ornl.gov/CLIMATE/climate_collections.html).

Projected future climate was generated by the coupled parallel climate model (PCM) (Washington and Weatherly, 1997). PCM model output for the stabilization scenario was obtained from the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/). The stabilization scenario prescribes a future time-varying atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing that saturates at the equivalent of 550 ppm CO2 by the year 2150 (Dai et al., 2001b). The PCM for the stabilization scenario simulation projects a 2°C increase in temperature and a global increase in precipitation from 3.07 to 3.17 mm per day. Compared to other coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, these responses are at the low end of projected changes.

Monthly data for each grid cell were interpolated to daily information using algorithms outlined by Richardson and Wright (1984). The atmospheric CO2 concentrations used in the model simulations are based on observations for 1930 to 1996. For 1997 to 2100, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations are the same as those used in the PCM climate simulations, and were estimated using an energy economics model driven by regionally-specific assumptions regarding population growth, economic growth, energy use per capita, technology development, and so on. Details are provided in Dai et al. (2001a).

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