Economic and Food Security Implications

The collective effect of the crop yields, forage yields, and animal weight changes is presented in Table 29.7, and shows an overall decrease in production, resulting in an overall increase in price levels. The lost economic welfare (consumers' and producers' surplus from domestic and international markets) under climate change and degradation is $103 million

Table 29.6 Decrease in Crop Yield by 2030 as Result of Projected Cropland Degradation in Main Sikasso Regions (% Decrease from Base)

North Central West

Table 29.6 Decrease in Crop Yield by 2030 as Result of Projected Cropland Degradation in Main Sikasso Regions (% Decrease from Base)

Maize

23

22

25

Groundnuts

23

21

22

Cotton

19

19

19

Sorghum

21

21

24

Millet

21

20

18

Cowpeas

24

22

23

Table 29.7 Economic and Food Security Indicators Under Projected Climate Change

Price

CS

PS

TS

ROH

Scenarios

Index

($ millions)

($ millions)

($ millions)

(%)

Base (1996)a

100

521

515

1036

32

Base (2030)b

121

476

520

975

42

HadCM (2030)

229

409

647

933

64

CGCM (2030)

274

384

689

910

70

a Existing conditions.

b Productivity loss due to land degradation.

Notes: CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; CS = consumer surplus; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model; PS = producer surplus; ROH = risk of hunger measure; TS = total surplus.

a Existing conditions.

b Productivity loss due to land degradation.

Notes: CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; CS = consumer surplus; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model; PS = producer surplus; ROH = risk of hunger measure; TS = total surplus.

to $126 million, respectively. The price index, set at a value of 100 for the base year (1996), was projected to increase to 229 and 274. The ROH increased from 32% of the population to 64% and 70%.

29.5.2.1 Effects of Adaptation

A significant amount of the climate change and degradation loss can be reduced by adaptation (Table 29.8). More than one-third of the welfare loss can be mitigated by crop mix, trade, and heat-resistant cultivar adaptations. ROH falls to a range of 37% to 46% as compared to 65% to 70% when

Table 29.8 Potential of Economic and Technological Adaptations

HadCM (2030) CGCM (2030)

Adaptation Type TS (% Rec) ROH (%) TS (% Rec) ROH (%)

Table 29.8 Potential of Economic and Technological Adaptations

Crop mix

14.0

-11.2

15.6

-9.7

Trade

1.5

-1.7

5.3

-2.8

Technology

5.8

-2.3

7.0

-1.6

Full adaptation

35.8

-28.0

39.5

-26.9

Notes: CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model; ROH (%) = percentage reduction in risk of hunger; TS (% Rec) = percentage of total welfare loss recovered.

Notes: CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model; ROH (%) = percentage reduction in risk of hunger; TS (% Rec) = percentage of total welfare loss recovered.

adaptations are not considered. However, adaptations did not fully mitigate the climate change impact. The gains due to adaption do not include the cost of adaptation.

Overall economic welfare and ROH show considerable improvement under land expansion and adoption of improved cultivars (Table 29.9). Under HadCM, adaptations reduced ROH from 65% to 36%, while under CGCM, adaptations

Table 29.9 Economic and Food Security Indicators Under High-Yield and Area-Expansion Scenarios with Adaptations

HadCM CGCM

Table 29.9 Economic and Food Security Indicators Under High-Yield and Area-Expansion Scenarios with Adaptations

HadCM CGCM

1996

Exp+

Exp+

Indicators

Base

2030

Exp

HYld

HYld

2030

Exp

HYld

HYld

Price index

100

107

87

92

66

120

91

95

68

CS ($ millions)

521

409

536

521

562

384

526

511

533

PS ($ millions)

515

647

497

481

457

689

504

509

468

TS ($ millions)

1036

933

1114

1039

1138

910

1104

1020

1112

ROH (%)

32

36

32

26

18

43

33

30

18

Notes: 2030 = only climate is changed; CS = consumer surplus; CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; Exp = climate is changed and land area is expanded; ExpHYld = climate is changed, land is expanded, and high-yielding cultivars are made available; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model; HYld = climate is changed, and high-yielding cultivars are made available; PS = producer surplus; ROH =risk of hunger; TS = total surplus.

Notes: 2030 = only climate is changed; CS = consumer surplus; CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; Exp = climate is changed and land area is expanded; ExpHYld = climate is changed, land is expanded, and high-yielding cultivars are made available; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model; HYld = climate is changed, and high-yielding cultivars are made available; PS = producer surplus; ROH =risk of hunger; TS = total surplus.

reduced ROH from 70% to 43%. When considered simultaneously, area expansion and adoption of high-yielding varieties reduced ROH by 18%.

29.5.2.2 Climate Change Impacts on Variance of Welfare Measures

MASM simulates market conditions across 12 weather years in Mali, so we were able to compute the variance of welfare measures. Table 29.10 summarizes the coefficient of variation for some of the indicators presented in Table 29.9. Generally, the variation in consumer surplus and producer surplus increased with climate change, while it decreased as adaptations were considered. The results indicate a further increase in the riskiness of Malian agriculture as a result of climate change.

29.5.2.3 Effects of Population Expansion

A critical factor to the future food security conditions in Mali will be population dynamics. In the results reported above, we did not consider any change in population. Here we use population projections by the FAO for 2030 (FAO, 2002), where population is projected to double in urban areas and increase by over 50% in rural areas.

Table 29.10 Changes in Variance of Welfare Estimates Under Climate Change With and Without Adaptation Cases ($ Millions)

Without Adaptation With Adaptation

Table 29.10 Changes in Variance of Welfare Estimates Under Climate Change With and Without Adaptation Cases ($ Millions)

Without Adaptation With Adaptation

Base

HadCM

CGCM

HadCM

CGCM

Consumer surplus

0.15

1.32

1.59

0.09

0.1

Producer surplus

6.28

38.7

43.69

5.12

5.74

Foregin surplus

0.56

0.08

0.12

0.02

0

Total surplus

0.38

22.15

25.13

0.34

0.57

Notes: CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model.

Notes: CGCM = Canadian coupled general circulation model; HadCM = Hadley Center coupled model.

Results show quite a precarious food security situation in Mali attributable to population growth alone. Under the relatively optimistic scenario considered in this study — full adaptation plus land expansion along with the adoption of high-yielding cultivars — ROH increases to 84% and 85% under the climates projected with HadCM and CGCM. Also, the results show high dependence on the import of cereals, as the cereal import index rises to 242 and 319, respectively, under the HadCM and CGCM projections, compared to the base level of 100.

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