Contents

29.1 General Findings on Climate Change Impact 704

29.2 Mali Climate Change Projections 708

29.3 Analytical Framework 710

29.4 Assessment Methodology 711

29.4.1 Incorporating Adaptation 713

29.4.1.1 Biophysical Adaptations 713

29.4.1.2 Resource Adaptations 713

29.4.1.3 Improved Varieties 714

29.4.1.4 Market Adaptations 714

29.4.2 Scenarios Used for Impact Assessment 715

29.5 Results 715

29.5.1 Biophysical Results 715

29.5.2 Economic and Food Security Implications 717 29.5.2.1 Effects of Adaptation 718

29.5.2.2 Climate Change Impacts on Variance of Welfare Measures

29.5.2.3 Effects of Population Expansion

721 721

29.6 Conclusions References

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change may worsen climatic conditions in many developing countries. Rosenzweig and Iglesias (1994) argue that in low-latitude regions, where most of the developing world is located, crop yields are likely to be hard hit by climate change. However, information on the economic consequences of such shifts remains sparse (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], 2001). This chapter provides an economically based climate change impact assessment for the Malian agricultural sector, highlighting food security implications.

In addition to possible climate change, many other factors are relevant to Mali's future food security and the implications of climate change. Food production intensification has caused resource degradation with slow technological change and continuing high population growth have caused cultivation of marginal lands and shortened fallow periods (Couli-baly, 1995; Kuyvenhoven et al., 1998; Benjaminsen, 2001; Vitale, 2001). In turn, declining soil fertility and yields are being observed. In addition, Malian farmers face high climatic risk that influences their decision making. Thus, climate change needs to be considered in conjunction with technical progress, resource degradation, cropland expansion, and climatic risk.

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