Contents

4.1 Introduction 72

4.2 Food Security 74

4.2.1 Agricultural Productivity 74

4.2.2 Limited Use of New Technologies 75

4.2.3 Assessing Food Security with the Food Security Assessment Model 76

4.2.3.1 Food Security in 2002 78

4.2.3.2 Projections of Food Security in 2012...82

4.3 Food Security and Greenhouse Gases 84

4.3.1 Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on

Food Security 84

4.3.1.1 CO2 Fertilization 85

4.3.1.2 Climate Change 85

4.3.1.3 Extreme Events 86

4.3.1.4 Rising Sea Level 86

4.3.2 Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Related to

Food Security 87

4.4 Climate Change and Food Security in the

Near Future 87

4.4.1 Climate Change and Length of Growing Season in 20th Century 88

4.4.1.1 Length of Growing Season on

All Land 88

4.4.1.2 Length of Growing Season on Current Cropland 89

4.4.2 Climate Change and Food Security Projections for 2012 100

4.4.3 Discussion 101

4.5 Summary and Conclusions 105

Acknowledgments 107

References 107

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