Conclusions

We anticipate that Mali may experience definite but moderate economic losses under the magnitude of climate change projected with the HadCM and CGCM models if population does not greatly expand. Losses will be much more sever if population expands.

Without population changes, annual losses range from $103 million to $126 million, which is roughly 2% of agricultural gross domestic production. Producers gain at the expense of consumers, due to rises in food prices. ROH increases from 32% to 64% to 70% of the population. In terms of the FAO's ranking, Mali moves from category 4 to category 5, that is, into the highest risk category.

However, adaptations can greatly mitigate overall economic losses and ROH. The results highlight the importance of land expansion and the adoption of high-yielding varieties in providing higher economic benefits and improving food security conditions in Mali. Other measures to mitigate climate change impacts might include reversal of land degradation by improving soil organic matter and the promotion of research and development for heat-resistant cultivars.

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