Gridded monthly weather data were supplied by the Climate Impacts LINK Project (United Kingdom Department of the Environment, contract EPG 1/1/16) on behalf of the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia. We would also like to thank Todd P. Mitchell of the University of Washington for help in obtaining and understanding the Cold Tongue Index, and directing us to the Southern Oscillation Index. We are also grateful to John Sullivan, Kevin Ingram, and three anonymous reviewers for their insights and suggestions. Any remaining errors, of course, are ours. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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