Table of Contents

Glossary of Terms and Abbrevations 9

Executive Summary 13

Chapter 1

Introduction 17

Chapter 2

Climate change projections 21

IPCC projections 21

Primary effects and interactions 24

Pastures and livestock production 32

Industrial crops 33

Chapter 3

Impacts and sensitivities in agriculture 37

Uncertainty issues 37

Estimates of global production, trade and food security 45

Impacts on food prices 50

Identifying vulnerable regions and socio-economic groups 52

Emerging case for immediate action 55

Chapter 4

Adaptation 59

The scope of adaptation 59

Adaptation in agriculture observed 64

Estimating the costs and benefits of adaptation 68

The role for public policy in adaptation 70

Policy instruments for adaptation 73

Chapter 5

Mitigation 79

Agriculture as a source of emissions 79

Agricultural emissions inventory 80

The economics of mitigation 81

Cost effectiveness and efficient mitigation 82

Mitigation measures 84

MACC exercises 85

Carbon budgeting in UK agriculture 86

Policy instruments for mitigation 90

Chapter 6

Integrating mitigation and adaptation 93

Chapter 7

Relevant climate research in other agencies 97

Chapter 8

Future research needs 101

Valuation of climate change impact scenarios 101

The promotion of adaptation frameworks (based on cost-benefit analysis) 102

The development of marginal abatement cost modelling to develop emissions budgets 102

Research on the application of alternative voluntary and market-based instruments in relation to food and farming 103

Behaviours 104

Annex A 105

Other international institutions' activities 105

Country/regional activity 109

Academic institutions 114

Bibliography 117

Tables

Table 2.1. Summary of selected conclusions from IPCC for food and fibre 25

Table 2.2. Impacts on grasslands of incremental temperature change 34

Table 3.1. Number of people in the 2050s with an increase in water stress and with a decrease in water stress, for selected regions 43

Table 3.2. Proposed framework for agricultural metrics for impact assessment 51

Table 4.1. Examples of adaptation options by timing and by responsibility 62

Table 4.2. Types and examples of adaptation options at different levels in agriculture 63

Table 4.3. Comparison of agricultural insurance systems for EU Mediterranean countries 75

Table 5.1. Defra shadow price of carbon to 2040 83

Table 6.1. Mitigation measures affecting adaptation in agricultural systems 96

Figures

Figure 2.1. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report projections of global mean temperature for six representative emissions scenarios and a range of climate sensitivities 22

Figure 2.2. Simulated crop yield changes by the 2080s relative to the period

1961-90 according to a high emission scenario (IPCC A2) and two different climate models 31

Figure 3.1. The potential increases in yield exhibited by wheat, rice, maize and soybean under elevated levels of CO2 41

Figure 3.2. Cereal prices (% of baseline) versus global mean temperature change for major modelling studies 47

Figure 3.3. Additional millions of people at risk from hunger (incomes less than price of necessary purchase of staple foods), compared to no climate change reference case, under seven climate change and socio-economic scenarios 48

Figure 4.1. Costs and benefits of adaptation 69

Figure 4.2. Diagram of collaborative institutional arrangements for environmental action in the context of climate change 77

Figure 5.1. Notional marginal abatement cost schedule for CO2e 84

Figure 5.2. An illustrative MACC and its relationship to a carbon budget 87

Figure 5.3. Illustrative marginal abatement cost curve for UK agriculture 89

Boxes

Box 3.1. UKCIP scenarios and decision-making under uncertainty 38

Box 3.2. Uncertainties in climate models 39

Box 3.3. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios description 54

Box 5.1. The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme 91

Box 6.1. Biofuels as a mitigation strategy 94

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