Industrial crops

The AR4 indicates there is limited knowledge regarding the effects of climate change on industrial crops such as oilseeds, gums and resins, sweeteners, beverages, fibres, and medicinal and aromatic plants. Biofuel crops such as maize and sugarbeet will face similar effects as other crops discussed earlier in this report. Reduced rainfall may cause groundnut yields in Niger to reduce, while there may be large increases in cotton yields due to increases in ambient CO2 concentration. However, changes in temperature and precipitation may negate these effects (Varaprasa et al., 2003). Perennial industrial crops may be at greater risk than annual crops, as both damages (temperature stresses, pest outbreaks, increased damage from extremes) and benefits may accumulate with time.

Table 2.2. Impacts on grasslands of incremental temperature change

Local temperature change

Sub-sector

Region

Impact trends

Sign of impact

Scenario/ Experiment

Source

+0-2° C

Pastures and livestock

Temperate

Alleviation of cold limitation

+

SIM

Parsons et al., 2001

Increasing productivity

IS92a

Riedo et al., 2001

Increased heat stress for livestock

-

IS92a

Turnpenny et al., 2001

Mediterranean

No increase in net primary productivity

0

EXP

Shall et al., 2002; Dukes et al., 2005

+3° C

Pastures and livestock

Temperate

Neutral to small positive effect

(Depending on GMT)

0 to +

SIM

Parsons et al., 2001; Reido et al., 2001

Temperate

Negative on swine and confined cattle

-

HadCM2, CGCM1

Frank and Dugas, 2001

Mediterranean

Productivity decline

-

HadCM3 A2 and B2

Howden et. al., 1999

Table 2.2 (continued)

sector

Region

Impact trends

Sign of impact

Scenario/ Experiment

Source

Reduced ewe weight and pasture growth. More animal heat stress

Batima et al., 2005

Tropical

No effect (no rainfall change assumed)

-to 0

EXP

Newman et al., 2001; Volder et al., 2004

More animal heat stress

-

EXP = Experiment; SIM = Simulation without explicit reference to an SRES scenario; GMT = Global mean temperature.

Note:

EXP = Experiment; SIM = Simulation without explicit reference to an SRES scenario; GMT = Global mean temperature.

Source: Easterling et al., 2007.

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