Scenarios And Selected Model Results

With the described modelling framework we want to simulate agricultural land use changes, driven by stylised economic and environmental forces. These driving forces can be analysed separately or in combination, and we can compare the magnitude of their economic and environmental effects. As a reference scenario we chose the situation in Germany in the year 2000, i.e. climate conditions, yields, the fraction of arable land and pasture in total area, and cost structures in agricultural production are taken for this point in time. Then we look at 4 different scenarios which are either driven by climate change through LPJ or by stylised socio-economic changes through MAgPIE. In a fifth scenario we combine all separate scenarios into one.

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