Changes In Livestock Production Systems

Livestock production systems differ in their ability to respond to increasing demand for livestock products. Generally poultry and pork (white meat) production systems respond quickly to increasing demand, since they are commonly industrial with have fast reproduction cycles and adaptable feeding systems. Also, the feed conversion efficiency in poultry and pork production is higher than in most other systems.

Compared to white meat, the production of red meat (beef, mutton and goat meat) has longer reproduction cycles, a relatively low feed conversion efficiency and generally a lower degree of specialization than in white meat production. Therefore, transformations in red meat production systems are slower than in pork and poultry production systems (Seré and Steinfeld, 1996).

Traditional mixed livestock production systems also respond more slowly to increasing demand than modern poultry and pork production systems, mainly because livestock has other functions within the farm system than meat and milk production alone. This may explain why traditional mixed systems are unable to increase their production sufficiently. As a consequence, the supply of modern livestock production systems is increasing with larger shares of poultry and pork, particularly in developing countries (Bruinsma, 2003).

In this chapter we distinguish two livestock production systems according to a model described elsewhere (Bouwman et al., 2005a). These are pastoral-based and mixed/industrial livestock production systems (Figure 5.1). In the pastoral production systems grazing is dominant and not integrated with cropping systems.

Figure 5.1 Distribution of crop and livestock production systems for 1995

Mixed crop-livestock systems Arable and pastoral systems (semi)Nalural and marginal grassland □ther land

Mixed crop-livestock systems Arable and pastoral systems (semi)Nalural and marginal grassland □ther land

Figure 5.1 Distribution of crop and livestock production systems for 1995

Mixed/industrial systems have integrated cropping and livestock production, in which livestock production relies on a mix of food crops, crop by-products and roughage, consisting of grass, fodder crops, crop residues, and other sources of feedstuffs. In these mixed systems the by-products of one activity (crop byproducts, crop residues, and manure) often serve as inputs for another.

This model for describing livestock production systems is part of the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) (Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE-team, 2001). The livestock model was developed by Bouwman et al. (2005a) using historical data for the period 1970-1995 based on FAO (2001) and data Bruinsma (2003). All calculations are geographically distributed compiled for a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution.

Changes in the demand for agricultural products is largely determined by population growth and changing human diets. According to the FAO population projection used in this assessment, the world population growth will gradually slow down from 1.5% per annum now to 0.9% per annum between 2015 and 2030 reaching a world total of 8,270 million inhabitants in 2030 (Table 5.1). However, the population growth in developing countries will be much faster than in industrialized countries, while the projected growth in transition countries (Eastern Europe and the former USSR) will be negative in the coming 3 decades. Simultaneously, the per capita meat consumption shows a strong worldwide increase with a very fast growth in developing and transition countries. More details on food demand (Chapter 7) and consumption patterns (Chapter 10) can be found elsewhere in this volume.

The growth of animal populations and the production in each production system in the period 1980-1990 from Seré and Steinfeld (1996) were used by Bouwman et al. (2005a) to calculate the population numbers and the production within the pastoral and mixed/industrial production systems for the period 1970 to 1995 based on Seré and Steinfeld (1996). For the development of the distribution of the production over the two production systems for 1995-2030,

Table 5.1 Projections for total population (million inhabitants) and per capita meat consumption (kg/person/yr) for developing, industrial and transition countries

Year

Developing

Industrialized

Transition

World

Population

1998

4,572

892

413

5,900

2030

6,869

979

381

8,270

Meat

1998

26

88

46

36

consumption

2030

37

100

61

45

Source: Bruinsma (2003).

Source: Bruinsma (2003).

Bouwman et al. (2005a) assumed a continuation of the 1970-1995 trend in total production for pastoral and mixed/industrial systems.

As a result of the changing demand, the production of all livestock products strongly increased between 1970 and 1995, with larger in the production of pork and poultry meat than in that of beef and sheep and goat meat (Figure 5.2). The data for ruminants for the two major production systems, i.e. pastoral and mixed/industrial systems indicate an increase between 1970 and 1995 of global beef production of 16 Tg/yr. About 80% of this gain has been achieved in the mixed/industrial systems. For milk 94% of the total increase of 145 Tg has been achieved in mixed/industrial systems, while for mutton and goat meat this is 93% of the 4 Tg production growth.

In the same period, the productivity of all animal categories has increased, most strongly in mixed/industrial systems (Figure 5.3). Farmers not only increased the productivity per animal, but also achieved important increases in the productivity per hectare of grassland (Figure 5.4), particularly in the mixed/industrial systems.

In the coming three decades the production of pork and poultry will likely increase more strongly than that of ruminant meat. In the developing countries the white meat production is projected to grow from 99 to 196 Tg/yr, while ruminant meat production increases from 11 to 14 Tg/yr in pastoral systems and from 21 to 53 Tg/yr in mixed/industrial systems (Figure 5.2). In the industrialized countries growth of white meat production (65 to 74 Tg/yr) will slow down somewhat compared to the 1970-1995 period (38 to 65 Tg/yr), while the ruminant meat production in pastoral systems will not change substantially, and that in mixed/industrial systems will increase only slightly from 24 to 26 Tg/yr. In the transition countries the ruminant meat production will increase from 8 to 10 Tg/yr and that of white meat from 16 to 19 Tg/yr in mixed/industrial systems (Figure 5.2).

The growth in the production of milk shows similar changes. As in the 19701995 period (13 to 20 Tg/yr), in the developing countries milk production will slowly increase in pastoral systems in the coming three decades (20 to 26 Tg/yr). The increase in mixed/industrial systems will increase much faster in the coming three decades (176 to 413 Tg/yr) than in the period 1970-1995 (73 to 176 Tg/yr). In the industrialized countries the milk production in pastoral systems is insignificant compared to that in the mixed/industrial systems, where the

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Figure 5.2 Total production of ruminant meat (cattle, sheep and goats) (top panel) and milk (middle panel) for pastoral (PAST) and mixed/industrial production systems (MIX), and production of poultry and pork (bottom panel) for developing, industrialized and transition countries for 1970, 1995 and 2030

production increased from 194 Tg/yr (1970) to 231 (1995) and will increase further to 272 Tg/yr in the coming three decades. The changes in milk production over the whole period 1970-2030 in the transition countries are only minor. The development of the productivity of the animals and the production per hectare in the coming three decades shows a continuation of that in the period 1970-1995 (Figure 5.3; Figure 5.4).

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Figure 5.3 Annual meat (top panel) and milk (bottom panel) production per animal for pastoral and mixed/industrial production systems for all ruminants in developing, industrialized and transition countries for 1970, 1995 and 2030

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