The above simple calculation shows the importance of livestock production for determining land use through its feed demand. Ruminant production (cattle, buffaloes, sheep and goats) takes place under very diverse conditions. However, the general direction of change is towards a gradual intensification to meet the increasing demand for livestock products. This intensification also influences the composition of the animal feed required by ruminant production systems. In general, intensification is accompanied by decreasing dependence on open range feeding and increasing use of concentrate feeds, mainly feed grains, to supplement other fodder.
At the same time improved and balanced feeding practices and improved breeds in both monogastric and ruminant systems enabled more of the feed to go to the produce (meat and milk) rather than to maintenance of the animals. This has led to increasing overall feed conversion efficiency (Seré and Steinfeld, 1996). The calculated total feed intake shows large differences between regions, and also a considerable improvement in feed conversion efficiency in the period 1970-1995 (Figure 5.5).
This improvement is related to the increased production per animal as a result of increasing carcass weight, off-take rates and milk production per animal (Bouwman et al., 2005a). In addition, the use of animal traction providing draft power for about 28% of the world's arable land (Delgado et al., 1999) has decreased in recent decades (Bruinsma, 2003), leading to important decreases in the feed energy requirements, for example in East Asia. Regarding the feed use for ruminants and pigs and poultry, our results indicate an increase of about 44% for all feed categories between 1995 and 2030.
Total use of food crops for pigs and poultry increases by 55%, while the increase for cattle is 28%. Total grass consumption increases by 33% between 1995 and 2030 (Figure 5.6).
Only slight changes in the global extent of grassland in mixed/industrial and pastoral systems are projected for the period 1995 to 2030, which is consistent with the trends in recent decades (Table 5.2). In many industrialized regions, the extent of grassland in the mixed/industrial systems shows a slight decrease, while grassland is expanding in some developing regions. This implies that increased grass consumption will come from intensification, as illustrated by increasing production per hectare (Figure 5.4). The considerable increase of 33% in grassland productivity can only be achieved by increasing inputs of fertilizers, use of grass-clover mixtures and improved management (Bouwman et al., 2005a).
Figure 5.5 Feed conversion for total ruminant production in developing, transition and industrialized countries for 1970, 1995 and 2030
□ Food crops + animal products
□ Fodder crops and residues
Figure 5.6 Global feed use by category for total livestock production (including monogastric production) for 1970, 1995 and 2030
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